Kass Attempts the “Triple Lindy”
June 22, 2009 at 5:30 am 9 comments
Although Doug Kass, founder and president of Seabreeze Partners, has historically been primarily a dedicated short-seller, he presciently called the market low in March 2009 (what he now calls a “generational low”). Like in the movie Back to School starring Rodney Dangerfield, Doug Kass is trying to successfully execute the impossible “Triple Lindy” dive of his own. Thus far, Kass has completed the first two legs of the dive by accurately being bearish in late 2007 and subsequently bullish at the recent market bottom in March 2009. Now he sees, “potholes on the road to higher prices,” and he thinks we will be stuck in neutral for quite a while.
Click Here for Kass’ Yahoo! Video Interview
Like other prognosticators, I feel like Mr. Kass is trying to have a little of his cake and eat it too, since he previously called a run to 1,050 (S&P was at 942 on 6/4/09) and now he has adjusted his posture to a neutral stance. Therefore if prices move upwards, his previous 1,050 call is firmly in place, and on the other hand if we move sideways or downwards, then his neutral prediction is still in play.
The "Triple Lindy" Dive
As one of the American judges, I give Kass a score of 9.0 regardless of whether his squishy call for a potential double-dip (consumer led recession) comes to fruition in late 2009, or early 2010. Congratulations Doug on completion of the first two sequences of the Triple Lindy!
Entry filed under: Profiles, Stocks. Tags: double dip, Doug Kass, Douglass Kass, forecast, investments, Rodney Dangerfield, stock market, triple lindy.
Investing Caffeine 
1.
Nigel Hart | June 22, 2009 at 8:17 am
No one doubkts his “generational low” call was excellent – except it has never translated into performance. His Seabreeze funds are up less than 6% ytd! Too much media appearance fees for my liking.
2.
Lee Munson, CFP®, CFA | June 22, 2009 at 8:22 am
What can you say, he nailed it and continues to do so. The real issue is understanding that he is also short all the time and can stuff the regular guy should stay away from, like shorting and options. Kass understands the big picture, the problem is when you start to translate that into an intra-day trading strategy based on every word he says. I say he hits the “Triple Lindy”
3.
Bob Harvey | June 22, 2009 at 8:38 am
I have followed DK recently (last 90 days )and have relied on his short rentals and long ideas.
I find his calls to be priscient – although ever fluid, which requires being nimble.
His double dip scenario seems to be playing out along with the range bound short term outlook, agree he totally deserves a “9”
4.
Bart Gershbein | June 22, 2009 at 9:00 am
Doug Kass is a sharp independent thinker and a very likable guy…But it ain’t over and Bear market rallys can play out similar to what we are seeing and the generational low of November from his buddy Cramer didn’t stick.
I rather hear from Meredith Whitney or Nouriel Roubini who were farther out on limb earlier when they made their calls …not that they are perfect but at least I’ll understand the worst case scenario.
No doubt Doug Kass is good but who can really understand the financial mess if the guys who created don’t understand it
5.
Marcus Kay | June 22, 2009 at 11:11 am
Kass had saved and made me money this year more than anyone else , just by reading The Edge, I am way ahead of the averages, should have sold everything when he was last on Kudlow telling us the next 50 pts was down. Would have avoided an ugly 7 % hit on my investments. Kass is the man, — cool , calm, not frenetic like Jim Cramer. Keep up the good work Doug !!! I can’t imagine anoyone in his hedge fund being unhappy being up ONLY 6% this year. What a bloodbath you guys avoided.
6.
sidoxia | December 6, 2009 at 12:33 pm
Subsequent interview in August ’09 when Kass was cautious:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/32475740
~WS
7.
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