Posts tagged ‘stock market’
Stock Market: Shrewd Bet or Stupid Gamble?
Trillions of dollars have been lost and gained over the last five years. The extreme volatility strangled investment portfolios, and as a result millions of investors capitulated by throwing in the towel and locking in losses. Melted 401ks, shrunken IRAs, and beat-up retirement accounts bruised the overarching psyche of Americans to the point they questioned whether the stock market is a shrewd bet or stupid gamble?
The warmth and safety of bonds provided some temporary relief in subsequent years, but the explosive rebound in stock prices to new record highs in 2013 coupled with the worst year in a decade for bonds still have many on the sidelines asking whether they should get back in?
As I’ve written many times in the past (see Timing Treadmill), timing the market is a fruitless effort. Elementary statistics, including the “Law of Large Numbers” will demonstrate that blind squirrels can and will beat the market on occasion, but very few can consistently beat the stock market indices for sustained periods (see Dart-Throwing Chimps).
However, there have been some gun-slinging hedge fund managers who have accumulated some impressive track records. Because of insanely high management fees, many overpaid hedge fund managers will swing for the fences by using a combination of excessive leverage and/or concentration. If the hedge funds connect with lucky returns, the managers can take the money and run. If they swing and miss…no problem. Close shop, hang out a shingle across the street, change the hedge fund’s name, and try again. Of course there are those successful hedge fund managers who have learned how to manipulate the system and exploit information to their advantage, but many of those managers like Raj Rajaratnam and Steven Cohen are either behind bars or dealing with the Feds (see fantastic Frontline piece on Cohen).
But not everyone cheats. There actually are a minority of managers who consistently beat the market by taking a long-term approach like Warren Buffett. Long-term outperforming managers are like lifetime .300 hitters in Major League Baseball – the outperformers exist, but they are rare. In 2007, AssociatedContent.com did a study that showed there were only 12 active career .300 hitters in Major League Baseball.
Another legend in the investment industry is John Bogle, the founder of the Vanguard Group, a firm primarily focused on passive, index-based investment strategies. Although it is counter-intuitive to most, just matching the market (or index) will put you in the top-quartile over the long-run (see Darts, Monkeys & Pros). There’s a reason Vanguard manages more than $2,000,000,000,000+ (yes…trillion) of investors’ money. Even at this gargantuan size, Vanguard remains a fraction of the overall industry. Regardless, the gospel of low-cost, tax-efficient, long-term horizons is slowly leaking out to the masses (Disclosure: Sidoxia is a devoted user of Vanguard and other providers’ low-cost Exchange Traded Funds [ETFs]).
Rolling the Dice?
Unlike Las Vegas, where the odds are stacked against you, in the stock market the odds are stacked in your favor if you stay in the game long enough and don’t chase performance. Dr. Ed Yardeni has a great chart (below) summarizing stock market returns over the last 85 years, and what the data highlights is that the market is up (or flat) 69% of the time (59/86 years). The probabilities are so favorable that if I got comparable odds in Vegas, I’d probably live there!
Source: Dr. Ed’s Blog
Unfortunately, rather than using this time arbitrage in conjunction with the incredible power of compounding (see A Penny Saved is Billions Earned), many individuals look at the stock market like a casino – similarly to betting on black or red at a roulette wheel. Speculating about the direction of the market can be fun, and I’ve been known to guess on occasion, but it’s a complete waste of time. Creating a long-term plan of reaching or maintaining your retirement goals through a diversified portfolio is the way to go – not bobbing in out of the market with cash and bonds.
At Sidoxia, we don’t actively trade and time individual stocks either. For the majority of our client portfolios, we follow a growth philosophy similar to the late T. Rowe Price:
“The growth stock theory of investing requires patience, but is less stressful than trading, generally has less risk, and reduces brokerage commissions and income taxes.”
Nobody knows the direction of the stocks with certainty, and irrespective of whether the market goes down this year or not, history has proven the stock market has been a shrewd, long-term bet.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions in certain exchange traded funds (ETFs), but at the time of publishing SCM had no direct position in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.
QE: The Greatest Thing Since Sliced Bread*
Quantitative easing (QE), or the Federal Reserve’s bond buying program, has been a spectacular success. Arguably, the greatest innovation since sliced bread. Don’t believe me? I mean, if you listen to many of the experts, strategists, economists, and blogosphere pundits, the magical elixir of QE can be the only explanation rationalizing the multi-year economic recovery and stock market boom. Don’t believe me? Well, apparently many of the bearish pros make sure to credit QE for all our financial/economic positives. For example…
- QE is the reason the stock market is near all-time record highs.
- QE created seven million jobs in the U.S. over the last four years.
- QE turned around the housing market.
- QE turned around the auto market.
- QE weakened the U.S. dollar, resulting in flourishing exports.
- QE has lowered borrowing rates, thereby cleansing consumer balance sheets through deleveraging.
- QE is the reason Facebook Inc. (FB) hired 1,323 employees over the last year.
- QE is the reason Google Inc. (GOOG) has spent $7.8 billion on R&D over the last year.
- QE explains why McDonald’s Corp. (MCD) plans to open more than 1,400 stores this year.
- QE explains why Warren Buffett and 3G capital paid $28 billion to buy Heinz.
- QE is the reason Elon Musk and Tesla Motors (TSLA) invented the model S electric vehicle.
- QE exhibits why Target Corp. (TGT) is expanding outside the U.S. into Canada.
- QE is the reason why S&P 500 companies are expected to pay $300 billion in dividends this year.
- QE is the reason why S&P 500 companies were buying back shares at a $400 billion clip this year.
- QE is the basis for corporations spending billions on efficiency enhancing cloud-based services.
- QE led to a record number of new FDA drug approvals last year.
- QE has caused a natural gas production boom in numerous shale regions.
Wow…the list goes on and on! Heck, I even hear QE can take the corrosion off of a rusted car battery. Given how incredible this QE stuff is, why even consider tapering QE? Financial markets have been volatile on the heels of tapering the 3rd iteration of quantitative easing (QE3), but why slow QE3, when the FED could add more awesomeness with QE4, QE10, QE 100, and QE 1,000?
All of this QE talk is so wonderful, but unfortunately, according to all the bearish pundits, QE has created an artificial sugar high, thus creating an asset bubble that is going to end in a disastrous cratering of financial markets.
I know it’s entirely possible that QE may have absolutely nothing to do with the financial market recovery (other than a bid under Treasury & mortgage backed security prices), and also has no bearing on why I buy or sell stocks, but I guess I will need to hide in a cave when QE3 tapering begins. Although the end of dividends, share buybacks, housing/auto recoveries, acquisitions, expansion, innovation, etc., caused by QE tapering sure does not sound like a cheery outcome, at least I still have a loaf of sliced bread to make a sandwich.
*DISCLOSURE: For those readers not familiar with my writing style, I have been known to use a healthy dose of sarcasm. Call me if you want a deeper explanation.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
DISCLOSURE II : Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions in certain exchange traded funds (ETFs) and GOOG, but at the time of publishing, SCM had no direct position in FB, TSLA, MCD, BRKA, TGT, or any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page
What’s Going on with This Crazy Market?!
The massive rally of the stock market since March 2009 has been perplexing for many, but the state of confusion has reached new heights as the stock market has surged another +2.0% in May, surpassing the Dow 15,000 index milestone and hovering near all-time record highs. Over the last few weeks, the volume of questions and tone of disbelief emanating from my social circles has become deafening. Here are some of the questions and comments I’ve received lately:
“Wade, why in the heck is the market up so much?”; “This market makes absolutely no sense!”; “Why should I buy at the peak when I can buy at the bottom?”; “With all this bad news, when is the stock market going to go down?”; “You must be shorting (betting against) this market, right?”
If all the concerns about the Benghazi tragedy, IRS conservative targeting, and Federal Reserve bond “tapering” are warranted, then it begs the question, “How can the Dow Jones and other indexes be setting new all-time highs?” In short, here are a few reasons:
You hear a lot of noise on TV and read a lot of blathering in newspapers/blogs, but what you don’t hear much about is how corporate profits have about tripled since the year 2000 (see red line in chart above), and how the profit recovery from the recent recession has been the strongest in 55 years (Scott Grannis). The profit collapse during the Great Recession was closely chronicled in nail-biting detail, but a boring profit recovery story sells a lot less media advertising, and therefore gets swept under the rug.
II.) Reasonable Prices (Comparing Apples & Oranges):
Source: Dr. Ed’s Blog
The Price-Earnings ratio (P/E) is a general barometer of stock price levels, and as you can see from the chart above (Ed Yardeni), current stock price levels are near the historical average of 13.7x – not at frothy levels experienced during the late-1990s and early 2000s.
Comparing Apples & Oranges:
At the most basic level of analysis, investors are like farmers who choose between apples (stocks) and oranges (bonds). On the investment farm, growers are generally going to pick the fruit that generates the largest harvest and provide the best return. Stocks (apples) have historically offered the best prices and yielded the best harvests over longer periods of time, but unfortunately stocks (apples) also have wild swings in annual production compared to the historically steady crop of bonds (oranges). The disastrous apple crop of 2008-2009 led a massive group of farmers to flood into buying a stable supply of oranges (bonds). Unfortunately the price of growing oranges (i.e., buying bonds) has grown to the highest levels in a generation, with crop yields (interest rates) also at a generational low. Even though I strongly believe apples (stocks) currently offer a better long-term profit potential, I continue to remind every farmer (investor) that their own personal situation is unique, and therefore they should not be overly concentrated in either apples (stocks) or oranges (bonds).
Source: Dr. Ed’s Blog
Regardless, you can see from the chart above (Dr. Ed’s Blog), the red line (stocks) is yielding substantially more than the blue line (bonds) – around 7% vs. 2%. The key for every investor is to discover an optimal balance of apples (stocks) and oranges (bonds) that meets personal objectives and constraints.
III.) Skepticism (Market Climbs a Wall of Worry):
Source: Calafia Beach Pundit
Although corporate profits are strong, and equity prices are reasonably priced, investors have been withdrawing hundreds of billions of dollars from equity funds (negative blue lines in chart above – Calafia Beach Pundit). While the panic of 2008-2009 has been extinguished from average investors’ psyches, the Recession in Europe, slowing growth in China, Washington gridlock, and the fresh memories of the U.S. financial crisis have created a palpable, nervous skepticism. Most recently, investors were bombarded with the mantra of “Selling in May, and Going Away” – so far that advice hasn’t worked so well. To buttress my point about this underlying skepticism, one need not look any further than a recent CNBC segment titled, “The Most Confusing Market Ever” (see video below):
Source: CNBC
It’s clear that investors remain skittish, but as legendary investor Sir John Templeton so aptly stated, “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” The sentiment pendulum has been swinging in the right direction (see previous Investing Caffeine article), but when money flows sustainably into equities and optimism/euphoria rules the day, then I will become much more fearful.
Being a successful investor or a farmer is a tough job. I’ll stop growing apples when my overly optimistic customers beg for more apples, and yields on oranges also improve. In the meantime, investors need to remember that no matter how confusing the market is, don’t put all your oranges (bonds) or apples (stocks) in one basket (portfolio) because the financial markets do not need to get any crazier than they are already.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions in certain exchange traded funds (ETFs), but at the time of publishing SCM had no direct position in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.
August Shakes, Rattles, and Swirls
Shake, Rattle, & Swirl: Category 3 hurricane Irene pounded the eastern seaboard with winds reaching 110 miles per hour, knocking out power in an estimated 8 million homes and businesses. Some analysts estimate the damage to be somewhere between $7 billion and $10 billion. If that wasn’t enough, earlier in the same week, a 5.8-magnitude earthquake rippled from its Virginia epicenter up to Maine rattling both buildings and people’s nerves.
Volatility Spikes in August: Volatility, as measured by the Volatility Index (VIX – a.k.a. “Fear Gauge”), reared its ugly head again in August, reaching a level exceeding 44 (Source: Hays Advisory). This reading has only been experienced nine times in the last 25 years. Historically, on average, these have been excellent buying points for long-term investors.
Steve Jobs Lets Go of Reins: After being Chief Executive Officer of Apple Inc. (AAPL – formerly Apple Computers) for more than 20 years, Steve Jobs passed the CEO reins over to Tim Cook, who has been with the company for 13 years (including interim CEO). Jobs will remain on board as Chairman of Apple and still provide assistance in a more limited capacity.
Buffett Puts Dry Powder to Work: Billionaire Warren Buffett is putting his money where his mouth is. Although he is one of a few wealthy individuals griping about too LOW income taxes (NYT OpEd), at least he is using some of his extra bucks to support the country’s financial system. More specifically, Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRKA) is investing $5 billion in troubled banking giant Bank of America Corp.’s (BAC) preferred stock (paying a 6% dividend), with warrants to buy additional stock in the future at a mutually prearranged price.
Google Buys Motorola Mobility: Google Inc. (GOOG) agreed to pay $12.5 billion to buy cellphone maker Motorola Mobility Holdings (MMI) in a move designed to protect the internet giant, and its partners, against patent litigation as it pertains to the Google Android mobile phone operating system. that could shake up the balance of power among among tech rivals. Time will tell whether Motorola’s assets will providing valuable resources for Google’s partners (i.e., HTC, LG Electronics and Samsung Electronics) or whether the acquisition will create competitive conflicts.
ECB Buys some Bonds:The European Central Bank (ECB), Europe’s equivalent of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank, began buying up billions of dollars in Spanish and Italian bonds last month. The goal of the bond buying program is to stem any potential contagion effect arising from debt crises occurring in countries like Greece, Portugal, and Ireland.
Quote of the Month
On Volatility:
“Worry gives a small thing a big shadow.”
– Swedish Proverb
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
DISCLOSURE: For those taking this article seriously, please look up “parody” in the dictionary. Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients own certain exchange traded funds, GOOG, and AAPL, but at the time of publishing SCM had no direct position in BRKA, MMI, HTC,
LG Electronics and Samsung Electronics, or any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC “Contact” page
Dow Déjà Vu – Shining Rainbow or Bad Nightmare?
Excerpt from Free January Sidoxia Monthly Newsletter (Subscribe on right-side of page)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is sitting at 11,577 points. Dick Fuld is still CEO of Lehman Brothers, AIG is still trading toxic CDS derivative contracts, and the $700 billion TARP bailout is a pre-idea about to be invented in the brain of Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson. Oops, wait a second, this isn’t the Dow 11,577of September 2008, but rather this is the Dow 11,577 of December 2010 (+11% for the year, excluding dividends). Was the -50% drop we experienced in the equity markets during 2008-2009 all just a bad dream? If not, how in the heck has the stock market climbed spectacularly? Most people don’t realize that stocks have about doubled over the last 21 months (and up roughly +20%-25% in the last 6 months) – all in the face of horrendously depressing news swirling around the media (i.e., jobs, debt, deficits, N. Korea, Iran, “New Normal,” etc.). Market volatility often does not make intuitive sense, and as a result, many market observers have been caught flat-footed.
Here are a few basic factors that average investors have not adequately appreciated:
1) Headlines are in Rearview Mirror: News that everyone reads in newspapers and magazines and hears on the television and radio is all backward looking. It’s always best to drive while looking forward through the windshield and try to anticipate what’s around the corner – not obsess with backward looking activity in the rearview mirror. That’s how the stock market works – tomorrow’s news (not yesterday’s or today’s) is what drives prices up or down. As the economy teetered on the verge of a “Great Depression-like” scenario in 2008-2009, investors became overly pessimistic and stocks became dramatically oversold. More recently, news has been perking up. Previous recessions have seen doubters slowly convert to believers and push prices higher – eventually stocks become overbought and euphoria slows the bull market. I believe we are in phase II of this three-part economic recovery.
2) Ignore Emerging Markets at Own Peril: We Americans tend to wear blinders when it comes to focusing on domestic issues. We focus more on healthcare reform and political issues, such as “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell,” rather than the billions of foreigners chasing us as they climb the global economic ladder. Citizens in emerging markets are more concerned about out-competing and out-innovating us through educated workforces, so they can steal our jobs and buy more toasters, iPods, and cars – things we Americans have already taken for granted. The insatiable appetite of the expanding global middle class for a better standard of living is also driving ballooning commodity prices – everything from coal to copper and corn to cotton (the 4 Cs). This universal sandbox that we play in offers tremendous opportunities to grasp and tremendous threats to avoid, if investors open their eyes to these emerging market trends.
3) Capital Goes Where it’s Treated Best: Many voters are fed-up with the political climate in Washington and the sad state of economic affairs. The great thing about the global capitalistic marketplace we live in is that it does not discriminate – capital flows to where it is treated best. On a macro basis, money flows to countries that are fiscally responsible, support pro-growth initiatives, harbor educated work forces, control valuable natural resources, and honor the rule of law. On a micro basis, money flows to companies that are attractively priced and/or capable of sustainably growing earnings and cash flow. Voters and politicians will ultimately figure it out, or capital will go where it’s treated best.
Today’s Dow 11,577 is no bad dream, but rather resembles the emergence of a bright shining rainbow after a long, cold, and dark storm. The rainbow won’t stick around forever, but if investors choose to ignore the previously mentioned factors, like so many investors have overlooked, portfolio performance may turn into an ugly nightmare.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients own certain exchange traded funds, AAPL, and an AIG derivative security, but at the time of publishing SCM had no direct position in GS, any security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC “Contact” page.
Kass: Triple Lindy Redux
About a year ago, I wrote about Doug Kass (founder and president of Seabreeze Partners) and his attempt at pulling off the famous “Triple Lindy” dive, which was made famous in the classic movie Back to School starring Rodney Dangerfield. If I were a judge, I would say Kass’s landing wasn’t a perfect 10, but rather closer to a 6.5. After successfully nailing the bear market in 2008, and subsequently declaring the “generational low” of March 2009, Kass became cautious in June 2009. At the time, Kass pulled in his horns by pronouncing a consumer-led double dip in late 2009 or in the first half 2010 from a consumption binge hangover, while declaring his previous 1050 S&P 500 index target as overly ambitious. What actually transpired is the S&P 500 went from around 942 to 1220 over the next ten months, or up about +30%.
Today, Kass is trying to make another large splash, but now he is reversing course and once more calling for a rally…at least a mini one. Rather than speaking in terms of his previous generational low (S&P 666), Kass sees the recent lows around 1,010 being the “bottom for the year” and his new 2010 target is based on climbing to positive territory for the year, implying a +10% to +12% move from the beginning of July.
View Doug Kass Interview and Prediction
Kass is not your traditional investor, and he admits as much:
“I’m not a perma-bear, I’m not a perma-bull. I try to be flexible and eclectic in my view, and this is especially necessary in a market, which is so volatile as it’s been for the last several years.”
In explaining his upbeat rationale, Kass highlights nuanced aspects to employment data, payroll growth, moderate economic expansion, and an attractive valuation for the overall market:
“I’m not technically based, therefore I’m not sentiment based, I’m fundamental based….The markets are traveling on a path of fear and share prices have significantly disconnected from fundamentals.”
Even if Kass didn’t nail the “Triple Lindy,” he still deserves special attention as a practitioner, in addition to his side job as a market prognosticator. Additional recognition is warranted solely based on the potshots he aimed at rent-a-strategists like Nouriel Roubini, CNBC celebrity, (see Roubini articles #1 or #2) and Robert Prechter, long-running technician who is currently predicting Dow destruction to unfathomable level of 1,000. I’m not in the business of predicting short-term market gyrations, but I’ll enjoy watching Kass’s next dive to see whether he’ll make a splash or not.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
*DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients own certain exchange traded funds, but at the time of publishing SCM had no direct positions in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC “Contact” page.
Colombia: The Hidden Latin American Gem
Judging by the all the volatility in the markets and the gloomy headlines blanketing business periodicals, one would think the global walls of capitalism and democracy were crumbling into oblivion. That’s why it’s a nice diversion to discover a diamond in the rough, shining through the darkness in the form of the Colombian stock market. How special is this South American gem? An +1,845% return over 10 years sounds pretty exceptional to me. Those are the results that Professor Dr. Mark J. Perry from the University of Michigan calculated in a posting he recently wrote about the MSCI Colombia stock market index in his blog, Carpe Diem.
Source: Carpe Diem
Fueling the surge in the equity markets has been a right-leaning, free market government with a hawkish defense stance, led by President Álvaro Uribe for the last eight years. The voters voted to continue Uribe’s mandate by voting in his former defense minister, Juan Manuel Santos, who promises to keep the disruptive guerilla forces operating under Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) in check.
Colombia has been a close ally of the United States, thanks to their support of a joint crackdown on drug smuggling into the U.S. In return for their support, Colombia has received a nice fat $600 million check from the U.S. each year. What would even make our relationship tighter is an approval stamp placed on an awaiting U.S.-Colombia free trade agreement, which Congress has inexplicably kept on the backburner.
The U.S. and Colombia also agree on something else…their mutual disdain for Venezuelan leader, Hugo Chavez. Mr. Chavez poses a threat to the region, but Santos and the wave of free market leaders in the territory are more likely to wreak havoc on the Venezuelan leader according to Investor’s Business Daily:
“But Santos is probably most dangerous for Chavez, because Colombia’s rags-to-riches success story is so dramatic — showing that any beat-up nation can drag itself out of misery through markets — and because Venezuela and Colombia are such close neighbors. Word gets out about how well things are going in Colombia and it spreads fast in Venezuela. Santos need never fire a shot at Venezuela to slay Chavez’s revolution because the power of the markets will do it for him.”
Colombia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is not overly large relative to some more developed neighbors, but the World Bank estimated the country’s 2008 GDP at $244 billion, almost triple the figure from five years earlier. The explosive economic growth explains how this market was the highest returning market in the world over the last decade, even eclipsing white hot markets like China, Russia, Brazil, Peru, India, and Turkey, among many others.
How does one invest in this Colombian gem? One way to gain exposure is through an exchange traded fund (ETF): Global X/InterBolsa FTSE Colombia 20 ETF (GXG). This particular ETF is concentrated into 20 positions, with heavy weightings in financial, energy, and industrial stocks. So, as you continue to read about the so-called inevitable “double-dip” recession and collapse of the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency, please do not forget there are some brilliant free market economies, like Colombia, that are growing brilliantly and producing sparkling returns.
Read Professor Perry’s complete article on the Colombia market
Read the WSJ article written on the subject
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
*DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients own certain exchange traded funds, but at the time of publishing SCM had no direct positions in GXG, or any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC “Contact” page.
Money Goes Where Treated Best
“The world is going to hell in a handbasket” seems to be a prevailing sentiment among many investors. Looking back, a lack of fiscal leadership in Washington, coupled with historically high unemployment, has only fanned the flames of restlessness. A day can hardly go by without hearing about some fiscal problem occurring somewhere around the globe. Geographies have ranged from Iceland to Dubai, and California to Greece. Regardless, eventually voters force politicians to take notice, as we recently experienced in the Massachusetts vote for Senator.
Time to Panic?
So is now the time to panic? Entitlement obligations such as Social Security and Medicare, when matched with a rising interest payment burden from our ballooning debt, stands to consume the vast majority of our country’s revenues in the coming decades (if changes are not made). It’s clear to most that the current debt trajectory is not sustainable – see also Debt: The New Four-Letter Word. With that said, historical debt levels have actually been at higher levels before. For example, during World War II, debt levels reached 122% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product). Since promises generally garner votes, politicians have traditionally found it easier to legislate new spending into law rather than cutting back existing spending and benefits.
Money Goes Where it’s Treated Best
If our government leaders choose to ignore the growing upswell in fiscal discontent, then the global financial markets will pay more attention and disapprove less diplomatically. As the globe’s reserve currency, the U.S. Dollar stands to collapse if a different direction is not forged, and interest costs could skyrocket to unpalatable levels. Fortunately, the flat world we live on has created some of these naturally occurring governors to forcibly direct sovereign entities to make better decisions…or suffer the consequences. Right now Greece is paying for the financial sins of its past, which includes widening deficits and untenable debt levels.
As new, growing powers such as China, Brazil, India, and other emerging countries fight for precious capital to feed the aspirational goals of their rising middle classes, money will migrate to where it is treated best. Speculative money will flow in and out of various capital markets in the short-run, but ultimately capital flows where it is treated best. Meaning, those countries with policies fostering fiscal conservatism, financial transparency, prudent regulations, pro-growth initiatives, tax incentives, order of law, and other capital-friendly guidelines will enjoy their fair share of the spoils. The New York Times editorial journalist Tom Friedman coined the term “golden straitjacket” in describing this naturally occurring restraint system as a result of globalization.
Push Comes to Shove
Push will eventually come to shove, but the real question is whether we will self-impose fiscal restraint on ourselves, or will the global capital markets shove us in that direction, like the markets are doing to Greece (and other financially strapped nations) today? I am hopeful it will be the former. Why am I optimistic? Although more government spending has typically lead to more votes for politicians, cracks in the support wall have surfaced through the Massachusetts Senatorial vote, and rising populist sentiment, as manifested through the “Tea Party” movement (previously considered a fringe group).
Political gridlock has traditionally been par for the course, but crisis usually leads to action, so I eventually expect change. I am banking on the poisonous and sour mood permeating through the country’s voter base, in conjunction with the collapse of foreign currencies, to act as a catalyst for financial reform. If not, resident capital and domestic jobs will exodus to other countries, where they will be treated best.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients own certain exchange traded funds (including emerging market-based ETFs), but at time of publishing had no direct positions in securities mentioned in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC “Contact” page.
Back to the Future: Mag Covers (Part III)
Congratulations to those who have graduated through my first two articles (Part I and Part II) regarding the use of media magazine covers as contrarian investment indicator tools. We’ve reviewed magazine’s horrendous ability of predicting market shifts during the 1970s and Tech Bubble of 2000, and now we will take a peek at the “Great Recession” of 2008 and 2009. If you have the stamina to complete this final article, your diploma and selfless glory will be waiting for you at the end.
This magazine cover series was not designed to be utilized as an exploitable investment strategy, but rather to increase awareness and raise skepticism surrounding investment content. Just because something is written or said by journalist or blogger does not mean it is a fact (although I fancy facts). In the field of investing, along with other behavioral disciplines, there are significant gray areas left open to interpretation. A more educated, critical eye exercised by the general public will perhaps release us from the repetitive boom-bust cycles we’ve become accustomed to. Perhaps my goal is naïve and idealistic, nonetheless I dare to dream.
The wounds from a year ago are still fresh, and we have not fully escaped from the problems that originally got us into this mess, but it is amazing what a 60%+ market move since March can do to the number of “Great Depression” references. Let’s walk down calamity memory lane over the last year:
Great Depression Redux?
Months ago we were in the midst of a severe recession, and the media was not shy about jumping on the “pessimism porn” bandwagon for the sake of ratings. Like a Friday the 13th sequel (nice tie in!), CNBC just weeks ago was plugging the crisis anniversary of the Lehman Brothers failure. Time magazine’s portrayal of the financial crisis as the next Great Depression, including the soup kitchen lines, mass unemployment, and collapse of thousands of banks, was used like chum to feed the frenzy of shocked investing onlookers. Unemployment rates are still creeping up, albeit at a slower rate, but we are nowhere near the 25% levels seen in the Great Depression.
American Disintegration
One of my favorite articles (read here) of the global crisis was written by The Wall Street Journal late last year about a Russian Professor, Igor Panarin (also a former KGB analyst). I find it absurdly amusing that the WSJ would even give credence to this story, but perhaps now I can look forward to an Op-Ed in their newspaper from Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad or North Korean Leader Kim Jong Ill. Not only did Professor Panarin pronounce the complete evaporation of the United States, but he also provided a specific timeframe. In late June or early July 2010, he expects the U.S. to fall into civil war and subsequently get carved up into six pieces by particular foreign regions, including China, Mexico, E.U., Japan, Canada, and Russia (which will control Alaska of course). I guess Sarah Palin will not be a happy camper?
Other Crisis Souvenirs
Hey Georgy, let me know when you turn bullish…so I can sell!
Market Mayhem
- Who’s that on the cover? Nancy Pelosi?!
Lessons Learned
Contrarianism for the sake of contrarianism is not necessarily a good thing. Trend can be your friend too. Bubbles take much longer to inflate than they burst, so it may be in your best interest to ride the wave of ecstasy for longer than the early alarm ringers. Take for example Alan Greenspan’s infamous irrational exuberance speech in 1996, when the NASDAQ index was trading around 1300. As we all know, the NASDAQ went on to pierce the 5000 mark, four years later. Sorry Al…right idea, but a tad early. Although he may have been correct directionally, his timing and degree were way off. Pundits like Nouriel Roubini and Peter Schiff are other examples of prognosticators who identified the financial crisis many years before the catastrophe actually hit. As I noted previously, trading based on magazine covers was not conceived as a legitimate investable strategy, but as I’ve shown they can be indicators of sentiment. And these sentiment indicators can be used as a valuable apparatus in your toolbox to prevent harmful decisions at the worst possible times.
Thanks for coming Back to the Future on this historical tour of cover stories. Now that you have graduated with honors, next time you are in line at the grocery store, feel free to flash your diploma to receive a discount on a magazine purchase.
Class dismissed.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
DISCLOSURE: No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC “Contact” page.
Back to the Future: Mag Covers (Part II)
In my most recent article, I went Back to the Future to examine the role magazine covers play as a contrarian indicator in fear-driven markets like we experienced in the 1970s (see previous story). Investing is both an art and science. While measuring the scientific aspects of the market can be more straight-forward, the behavioral and emotional sides to investing are more subjective. Magazines act as sentiment sensors to gauge the fear and froth pulses of the general investing public. Since last time we explored fear, let’s check out some froth from the 1990s technology boom.
How to Invest in the Hottest Market Ever
Seeing the forest from the trees can be difficult when you’re trapped in the thick of it, but the March 2000 issue of Money magazine’s “How to Invest in the Hottest Market Ever” is a classic example of the mentality that reigned supreme in the late 1990s technology bubble. Objective, fact-filled articles that challenge the status quo are not necessary to generate sales, but articles and magazine covers that pander to the raw emotions of fear and greed keep the cash register ringing. If you don’t believe me, just read the sensational headlines at your local grocery store explaining how swine flu will kill us all and how there are millions to be made in melting gold coins and jewelry (read gold article).
I love some of the quotes from the article, especially from Pam, the 51 year old divorced New York City art museum volunteer who bought AOL, Microsoft, and Qualcomm (which rose +2,621% in 1999) who dismisses diversification: “I feel pretty safe now. I think we are in a new paradigm now.” Yeah, a “new economy” that catapulted Yahoo to a Price/Earnings ratio of 400x’s earnings; Cisco 109x’s earnings; and Sun Microsystems practically a bargain basement steal at 88x’s earnings. For reference purposes, the S&P 500 index currently trades for about 14.6x’s estimated 2010 earnings and 19.5x on 2009 estimates.
GetRich.com
Another landmark masterpiece I love is the September 1999 Time cover, “GetRich.com.” Never mind the unabated technology boom (excluding a brief hiccup in 1998) that inflated the bubble for a decade – Time still managed to unearth the “Secrets of the New Silicon Valley.” The article goes onto to express the get-rich formula:
“Can’t program a computer? Not a techno savvy? Not a problem. If you’ve got a hot Internet business idea, Silicon Valley’s astonishing start-up machine will do the rest.”
Like a drug dealer pushing heroin on an addict, the article goes on to entice its readers to question “Why have a boss when you and three buddies can build your own publicly traded company in two years? Windows this big don’t open very often.”
A Few More Favorites
Great timing on this February 2000 cover…a month before the crash!
This July 1999 cover captures envy. Everyone's getting rich!
As we saw during the technology boom, media outlets have no shame in shoveling greed inducing slop to the hungry general public. Like all historical events that end tragically, valuable lessons can be learned from our mistakes. Developing a discerning palette for the news we digest is a critical quality to generating an informed investment decision process. With the 1970s and 1990s behind us, as the last of my three part series, we’ll use time travel to another period to see if modern magazine editors fare any better in market timing as compared to their predecessors. Please excuse me while I jump in my time machine.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) or its clients has a long position in CSCO and QCOM at the time this article was originally posted. SCM owns certain exchange traded funds, but currently has no direct position in YHOO, MSFT, or JAVA. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC “Contact” page.
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