Posts tagged ‘junk bonds’

Stretching the High Yield Rubber Band

Rubber Band

The 10-Year Treasury note recently pierced below the all-important psychological 2% level (1.97%), which has confounded many investors, especially if you consider these same rates were around 4% before the latest mega-financial crisis hit the globe. Some of the rate plunge can be explained by sluggish global growth, but the U.S. just logged a respectable +5.0% GDP growth quarter; corporate profits are effectively at all-time record highs; and the economy has added about 11 million private sector jobs over the last five years (unemployment rate of 10.0% has dropped to 5.6%). So what gives…why such low interest rates? Well, as I noted in a recent article (Why 0% Rates?), there is a whole host of countries with lower rates, which acts like an anchor dragging down our rates with them. Scott Grannis encapsulates this multi-decade, worldwide rate decline in the chart below:

Interest Rate Decline 25 yrs 1-15

It should come as no surprise to many that these abnormally low rates have had a massive ripple effect on other asset classes… including of course high-yield bonds (aka “junk bonds”). It doesn’t take a genius or rocket scientist to discern the effects of an ultra-low interest rate environment. Quite simply, investors are forced to hunt for yield. When a Bank of America (BAC) customer is forced into earning less than 1/10th of 1 cent for every dollar invested in a CD, you can easily understand why the smile in their CD advertisement looks more like a grimace. Rather than accept $8 in annual interest on a $10,000 investment, post-crisis investors frightened by the stock market have piled into junk bonds. If you don’t believe me, check out the analysis provided by the Financial Times (data from Dealogic) in the chart below, which shows about $1 trillion in U.S. high-yield debt issuance over the last three years. Europe has experienced an even more dramatic growth rate in junk issuance compared to the U.S.

High Yield 2014 FT

Stretching High-Yield Band

A rubber band can only stretch so far before the elasticity forces it too snap. We are getting closer to the snapping point, as more complacent investors lend money to riskier borrowers and also accept more lenient terms from issuers (e.g., cov-lite loans). Although default rates on high yield bonds remain near decade lows (1.1% through November 2014), high-yield investors keep on inching towards an ultimate day of reckoning. Thanks to a continually improving economy, Fitch Ratings is still projecting a benign default rate environment for high-yield bonds in 2015 – somewhere in the 1.5% – 2.0% range (see chart below). However, high-yield credit spreads did widen in 2014 with the help of crude oil prices getting chopped by more than -50% over the last year. Given the energy sector accounts for about 17% of the high-yield market (Barron’s), it would be natural to expect a larger number of energy company defaults to occur over the next 12-18 months, especially if crude oil prices remain depressed.

Source: Fitch Ratings

Source: Fitch Ratings

While it makes sense for you to hold a portion of your portfolio in high-yield bonds, especially for diversification purposes, don’t forget the power of mean reversion. The uncharacteristically low default rates will eventually revert towards historical averages. Stated differently, the increased risk profile of the high-yield bond market continues to stretch, so make sure you are not overly exposed to the sector because this segment will eventually snap.

Investment Questions Border

www.Sidoxia.com

Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®

Plan. Invest. Prosper. 

DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients own a range of positions, including positions in certain exchange traded funds positions (JNK, HYG), and BAC, but at the time of publishing SCM had no direct position in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.

January 10, 2015 at 12:05 pm 2 comments

Confessions of a Bond Hater

Source: stock.xchng

Source: stock.xchng

Hi my name is Wade, and I’m a bond hater. Generally, the first step in addressing any type of personal problem is admitting you actually have a problem. While I am not proud of being a bond hater, I have been called many worse things during my life. But as we have learned from the George Zimmerman / Trayvon Martin case, not every situation is clear-cut, whether we are talking about social issues or bond investing. For starters, let me be clear to everyone, including all my detractors, that I do not hate all bonds. In fact, my Sidoxia clients own many types of fixed income securities. What I do hate however are low yielding, long duration bonds.

Duration…huh? Most people understand what “low yielding” means, when it comes to bonds (i.e., low interest, low coupon, low return, etc.), but when the word duration is uttered, the conversation is usually accompanied by a blank stare. The word “duration” may sound like a fancy word, but in reality it is a fairly simple concept. Essentially, high-duration bonds are those fixed income securities with the highest sensitivity to changes in interest rates, meaning these bonds will go down most in price as interest rates rise.

When it comes to equity markets, many investors understand the concept of high beta stocks, which can be used to further explain duration. There are many complicated definitions for beta, but the basic principle explains why high-beta stock prices generally go up the most during bull markets, and go down the most during bear markets. In plain terms, high beta equals high octane.

If we switch the subject back to bonds, long duration equals high octane too. Or stated differently, long duration bond prices generally go down the most during bear markets and go up the most during bull markets. For years, grasping the risk of a bond bear market caused by rising rates has been difficult for many investors to comprehend, especially after witnessing a three-decade long Federal Funds tailwind taking the rates from about 20% to about 0% (see Fed Fatigue Setting In). 

The recent interest rate spike that coincided with the Federal Reserve’s Ben Bernanke’s comments on QE3 bond purchase tapering has caught the attention of bond addicts. Nobody knows for certain whether this short-term bond price decline is the start of an extended bear market in bonds, but mathematics would dictate that there is only really one direction for interest rates to go…and that is up. It is true that rates could remain low for an indefinite period of time, but neither scenario of flat to down rates is a great outcome for bond holders.

Fixes to Fixed-Income Failings

Even though I may be a “bond hater” of low yield, high duration bonds, currently I still understand the critical importance and necessity of a fixed income portfolio for not only retirees, but also for the diversification benefits needed by a broader set of investors. So how does a bond hater reconcile investing in bonds? Easy. Rather than focusing on lower yielding, longer duration bonds, I invest more client assets in shorter duration and/or higher yielding bonds. If you harbor similar beliefs as I do, and believe there will be an upward bias to the trajectory of long-term interest rates, then there are two routes to go. Investors can either get compensated with a higher yield to counter the increased interest rate risk, and/or they can shorten duration of bond holdings to minimize capital losses.

Worth noting, there is an alternative strategy for low yielding, long duration bond lovers. In order to minimize interest rate risk, these bond lovers may accept sub-optimal yields and hold bonds to maturity. This strategy may be associated with short-term price volatility, but if the bond issuer does not default, at least the bond investor will get the full principal at maturity to help relieve the pain of meager yields.

Now that you’ve survived all this bond babbling, let me cut to the chase and explain a few ways Sidoxia is taking advantage of the recent interest rate volatility for our clients:

Floating Rate Bonds: Duration of these bonds is by definition low, or near zero, because as interest rates rise, coupons/interest payments are advantageously reset for investors at higher rates. So if interest rates jump from 2% to 3%, the investor will receive +50% higher periodic payments.

Inflation Protection Bonds: These bonds come in long and short duration flavors, but if interest rates/inflation rise higher than expected, investors will be compensated with higher periodic coupons and principal payments.

Shorter Duration: One definition of duration is the weighted average of time until a bond’s fixed cash flows are received. A way of shortening the duration of your bond portfolio is through the purchase of shorter maturity bonds (e.g., buying 3-year bonds rather than 30-year bonds).

High Yield Bonds: Investing in the high yield bond category is not limited to domestic junk bond purchases, but higher yields can also be earned by investing in international and/or emerging market bonds.

Investment Grade Corporate Bonds: Similar to high yield bonds, investment grade bonds offer the potential of capital appreciation via credit improvement. For instance, credit rating upgrades can provide gains to help offset price declines caused by rising interest rates.

Despite my bond hater status, the recent taper tantrum and interest rate spike, highlight some advantages bonds have over stocks. Even though prices declined, bonds by and large still have lower volatility than stocks; provide a steady stream of income; and provide diversification benefits.

To the extent investors have, or should have, a longer-term time horizon, I still am advocating a stock bias to client portfolios, subject to each investor’s risk tolerance. For example, an older retired couple with a conservative target allocation of 20%/80% (equity/fixed income) may consider a 25% – 30% allocation. A shift in this direction may still meet the retirees’ income needs (especially if dividend-paying stocks are incorporated), while simultaneously acknowledging the inflation and interest rate risks impacting bond positions. It’s important to realize one size doesn’t fit all.

Higher Volatility, Higher Reward

Frequent readers of Investing Caffeine have known about my bond hating tendencies for quite some time (see my 2009 article Treasury Bubble has not Burst…Yet), but the bond baby shouldn’t be thrown out with the bath water. For those investors who thought bonds were as safe as CDs, the recent -6% drop in the iShares Aggregate Bond Index (AGG) didn’t feel comfortable for most. Although I am still an enthusiastic stock cheerleader (less so as valuation multiples expand), there has been a cost for the gargantuan outperformance of stocks since March of ’09. While stocks have outperformed bonds (S&P vs. AGG) by more than +140%, equity investors have had to endure two -10% corrections and two -20% corrections (e.g.,Flash Crash, Debt Ceiling Debate, European Financial Crisis, and Sequestration/Elections). If investors want to earn higher long-term equity returns, this desire will translate into more volatility than bonds…and more Tums.

I may still be a bond hater, and the general public remains firm stock haters, but at some point in the multi-year future, I will not be surprised to hear myself say, “Hi my name is Wade, and I am addicted to bonds.” In the mean time, Sidoxia will continue to optimize its client bond portfolios for a rising interest rate environment, while also investing in attractive equity securities and ETFs. There’s nothing to hate about that.

www.Sidoxia.com

Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®

Plan. Invest. Prosper.

DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions in certain exchange traded funds (ETFs), including floating rate bonds/loan funds, inflation-protection funds, corporate bond ETF, high-yield bond ETFs, and other bond ETFs, but at the time of publishing, SCM had no direct position in AGG or any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.

July 20, 2013 at 4:05 pm 2 comments

Private Equity: Hitting Maturity Cliff

Photo source: 1Funny.com

Wow, those were the days when money was as cheap and available as that fragile, sandpaper-like toilet paper you find at gas stations. Private equity took advantage of this near-free, pervasive capital and used it to the greatest extent possible. The firms proceeded to lever up and gorge themselves on a never-ending list of target companies with reckless abandon (see also Private Equity Shooting Blanks). Now the glory days of abundant, ultra-cheap capital are history.

Rather than rely on low-cost bank debt, private equity firms are now turning to the fixed income markets – specifically the high yield market (a.k.a. junk bonds). As The Financial Times points out, more than $170 billion of junk bonds have been issued this year, in large part to refinance debt issued in the mid-2000s that has gone sour due to overoptimistic projections and a flailing U.S. economy. In special instances, private equity owners are fattening their own wallets by declaring special dividends for themselves.  

Even though some of these over-levered, private equity portfolio companies have received a temporary reprieve from facing the harsh economic realities thanks to these refinancings, the cliff of maturing debt in 2012 is fast approaching. Some have estimated that $1 trillion in maturing debt will roll through the market in the 2012-2014 timeframe. Either the economy (or operating performance) improves enough for these companies to service their debt, or these companies will find themselves falling off these maturity cliffs into bankruptcy.

Junk is Not Risk-Free

Driving this trend of loan recycling is risk aversion to stocks and a voracious appetite for yield in a yield desert. Stuffing the money under the mattress, earning next to nothing on CDs (Certificates of Deposit) and money market accounts, will not help in meeting many investors’ long-term objectives. The “uncertain uncertainty” swirling around global equity markets has nervous investors flocking to bonds. The opening of liquidity in the high yield markets has served as a life preserver for these levered companies desperate to refinance their impending debt. This high-yield debt refinancing window is also an opportunity for companies to lower their interest expense burden because of the current, near record-low interest rates.

But as the name implies, these “junk bonds” are not risk free. For starters, embedded in these bonds is interest rate risk – with a Federal Funds rate at effectively zero, there is only one upward direction for interest rates to go (bad for bond prices). In addition, credit risk is a concern as well. In the midst of the financial crisis, many of these high-yield bonds corrected by more than -40% from their highs in 2008 until the bottom achieved in early 2009. If the economy regresses back into a double-dip recession, many of these bonds stand to get pummeled as default rates escalate (see also, bond risks).

Pace Not Slowing

Source: Dealogic via WSJ

Does the appetite for high yield appear to be slowing? Au contraire. In the most recent week, Dealogic noted $15.4 billion in junk bonds were sold. The FT sees the pace of junk deals handily outpacing the record of $185.4 billion set in 2006.

The Wall Street Journal used the following deals to provide a flavor of how companies are using high-yield debt in the present market:

“First Data Corp. sold $510 million of 10-year notes this week, at 9.125%, to pay down bank debt due in 2014. Peabody Energy sold $650 million of 6.5%, 10-year notes to pay off the same amount of higher-priced debt due in three years. MultiPlan Inc., a health-care cost-management provider, sold $675 million of notes this week, at 9.875%, to help fund a buyout of the company. Cott Corp., a maker of store-branded soft drinks, sold $375 million of debt at 8.125% to fund its purchase of another company, Cliffstar Corp.”

 

The roads on the junk bond highway appear to be pothole free at the moment, however a cliff of debt is rapidly approaching over the next few years, so high-yield investors should travel carefully as conditions in the junk market potentially worsen. As we witnessed in 2008-2009, it can take a while to hit rock bottom in the riskier areas of the credit spectrum.

Read full Financial Times and Wall Street Journal articles on the high yield market.  

Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®  

Plan. Invest. Prosper.  

www.Sidoxia.com 

*DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients own certain exchange traded funds (including HYG and JNK), but at the time of publishing SCM had no direct position in First Data Corp., Peabody Energy (BTU), MultiPlan Inc., Cott Corp. (COT), Cliffstar Corp.,  or any security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC “Contact” page.

August 16, 2010 at 12:38 am Leave a comment

Misery Loves Company – Ruler Waffling

Ruler

Besides using a ruler for measuring small distances and rapping disobedient knuckles, the wooden instrument can also be used for extrapolating trends. This ruler is a very convenient tool when rigorous analysis is a second choice.

Misery loves company, so the often maligned pool of inaccurate Wall Street equity analysts are happy to share the limelight with their trend leaning junk bond analyst cousins. As default rate expectations have bounced around like a jack rabbit post the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, these bond forecasters have been caught flat-footed.

Reuters highlighted the backpedaling of Standard & Poor’s recent forecast changes:

“S&P said it now expects defaults to decline to 6.9 percent a year from now from a September rate of 10.8 percent. On Oct 2, it had said it expected defaults to escalate to 13.9 percent by August 2010.”

 

For a lazy analyst, extrapolation is a good fall-back strategy. Sticking your neck out by looking out further into the future or grasping the concept of reversion to the mean can be difficult and politically risky from a job retention perspective. It’s much easier to constantly hug current trends because it then becomes virtually impossible to be wrong.

Just as the rating agencies contributed to the subprime and auction rate securities (ARS) debacles by rubber stamping their AAA approvals last year through the financial crisis, so too have we witnessed the failure of bond analysts to properly analyze junk bond default rates.

Hopefully the narrowing of credit spreads is a leading indicator for economic improvement, but regardless the number and amount of high yield deals hitting the market is flowing heavily. The Wall Street Journal recently reported billions of junk bond deals being priced this week and next, including the $500 million Crown Castle International’s 10-year deal; $200 million Mohegan Tribal Gaming’s eight-year bonds; $325 million in Headwaters Inc.’s five-year notes; and over $2.4 billion of bonds from four other borrowers, including Boise Paper Holdings, Reynolds Group, Murray Energy Corp. and Universal City Development.

As larger companies are freely tapping the capital markets for capital, it’s becoming more and more evident that small businesses are having tougher and tougher times accessing credit, thanks in large part to banks hunkering down and reducing lending. Reference the flattening commercial bank credit curve chart provided by the Federal Reserve System:

Commercial Credit 

As we watch the credit flow drama unfold in these uncertain economic times, don’t panic if you wondering what will happen next. Just reach into the desk drawer and pull out the favorite tool of Wall Street equity and junk bond analysts…the righteous ruler.

Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®

Plan. Invest. Prosper.

DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management and its client accounts do have direct positions in HYG shares at the time this article was originally posted. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC “Contact” page.

October 22, 2009 at 2:00 am Leave a comment


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