Posts tagged ‘SBUX’

Equity Life Cycle: The Moneyball Approach

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Building a portfolio of stocks is a little like assembling a baseball team. However, unlike a team of real baseball players, constructing a portfolio of stocks can mix low-priced single-A farm players with blue chip Hall of Fame players from the Majors. Billy Beane, the General Manager for the Oakland Athletics, was chronicled in Michael Lewis’ book, Moneyball. Beane creates an amazing proprietary system of building teams more cost-efficiently than his deep-pocketed counterparts by statistically identifying undervalued players with higher on-base and slugging percentages. According to Beane, traditional baseball scouts were overpaying for less relevant factors, such as speed (stolen bases) and hitting (batting percentage).

In the stock world, before you can scout your team, you must first determine where in the life cycle the company lies. If Beane were to name this quality, perhaps he would call it Time-to-Maturity (TTM). Some companies operate in small, mature bitterly competitive industries (e.g. shoe laces), while others may operate in large growing markets (e.g. Google [GOOG] in online advertising and algorithmic search). Some companies because of negative regulation or heightened competition have a very short life cycle from early growth to maturity. Other companies with competitive advantages and untapped growth markets can have very long life spans before reaching maturity (think of a younger Coca Cola [KO] or Starbucks [SBUX]). Like Beane talks about in his book, many young, promising, immature baseball players flame out with short TTMs, nonetheless many scouts overpay for the cache´ such players offer.

Unfortunately, many investors do not even contemplate the TTM of their stock. Buying juvenile stocks (i.e., private companies like Twitter & Facebook – see article) or elderly stocks in and of itself is not a bad thing, but before you price a security it’s advantageous to know what type of discount or premium is deserved. Obviously, I’m looking for undervalued stocks across all age spectrums, however finding an undervalued, undiscovered late-teen just beginning on its long runway of growth combines the best of all worlds. Finding what Peter Lynch calls the “multi-baggers” is easier said than done, like searching for a needle in a haystack, but the rewards can be handsome.

Life Cycle

What creates long runways of growth – the equivalent of winning dynasties in baseball? Well, there are several contributors leading to longer TTMs, including economies of scale, large industries, barriers to entry, competitive advantages, growing industries, superior and experienced management teams, to name a few factors. But like anything, even the great growth companies, including Microsoft (MSFT), turn from teenagers to mature adults. As famed businessman Thomas Brittingham said, A good horse can’t go on winning races forever, and a good stock eventually passes its peak, too.”

There are many aspects to creating a winning team. If Billy Beane were to draw up factors for a baseball team, I’m confident TTM would be near the top of his list. What you pay for the length of the growth cycle is obviously imperative, but since I’m a strong believer in the tenet that “price follows earnings,” it only makes sense that above average sustainable earnings growth should eventually lead to superior price appreciation. As Bob Smith, successful manager from T. Rowe Price states, “The important thing is not what you pay for the stock, so much as being right on the company.” So if you want to recruit a portfolio of winning stocks, like Billy Beane picks successful baseball players, then include the equity life cycle maturity statistic as a factor in your selection process.

Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®

Plan. Invest. Prosper.

DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management nor its client accounts have no direct position in MSFT, SBUX, KO, Facebook, or Twitter shares at the time this article was originally posted. Some Sidoxia Capital Management accounts do have a long position in GOOG shares. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC “Contact” page.

October 15, 2009 at 2:00 am 8 comments

The Yuppie Bounce & the Lemming Leap

Source: Gary Larson – Where’s Your Preserver?

Source: Gary Larson – Where’s Your Preserver?

Making money in the stock market is a tough game, and most people don’t beat the market because like lemmings the average investor follows the herd mentality to underperformance. So, should Wall Street analysts and the media be crucified for their analysis? The short answer is yes. Certainly there are some exceptional analysts and journalists, however most of them merely report what is happening or are looking in the rear-view mirror. Beyond that, the vast majority of commentators prey on emotions of the public and masses by pushing them into knee-jerk selling panics at the bottom and also getting them frothing at the mouth to buy at market peaks. Can I understand why they offer such bad advice? Yes. Quite simply, the incentive structures are wrong.

If you are an analyst or journalist, the number one priority (incentive) is not to be wrong, because if they are mistaken, then job loss becomes a bona fide risk. However, if they throw in some fancy language and mix it in with a lot of caveats, there virtually is no risk of being wrong. If factors happen to change, no worries, their opinions can change too. Therefore, most analysts huddle together in tight packs reporting the same news du jour as everyone else, while mixing in a fair dosage of fear and greed to drum up more interest. These incentives align well for the journalists/analysts but unfortunately not for the average investor.

Joshua Brown over at the Reformed Broker recently wrote an excellent piece highlighting his so-called “Yuppie Bounce” example. Last winter, as all the discretionary consumer stocks (Joshua Brown calls them “waster stocks”) were getting pasted, the pundits were advising investors to pile into defensive stocks. Lo and behold, this was the absolute worst time to follow that advice. Mr. Brown gives a superb Starbucks (SBUX) versus Wal-Mart (WMT) example showing how SBUX has effectively doubled over the last nine months just as WMT flat-lined.  

Source: The Reformed Broker (Joshua M. Brown)

Source: The Reformed Broker (Joshua M. Brown)

Investing is like a game of chess, so although a current move may sound logical, it’s more important to think about decisions multiple steps into the future. Most successful long-term investors don’t follow the conventional lines of thinking, and they are generally swimming against the tide. Therefore, if you are going to jump in with the other lemmings, make sure you have your life preserver with you.

DISCLOSURE: Some Sidoxia Capital Management and client accounts HAVE direct positions in WMT at the time the article was published. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC “Contact” page.

September 1, 2009 at 4:00 am 1 comment


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