Posts tagged ‘retail sales’
Politics & COVID Tricks

Thanks to a global epidemic, trillions of dollars instantly disappeared during the first quarter of this year, and then, abracadabra…the losses turned into gains and magically reappeared in the subsequent two quarters. After a stabilization in the spread of the COVID-19 virus earlier this year, the stock market rebounded for five consecutive months, at one point rebounding +64% (from late March to early September) – see chart below. However, things became a little bit trickier for the recent full month as concerns heightened over the outcome of upcoming elections; uncertainty over a potential coronavirus-related stimulus package agreement; and fears over a fall resurgence in COVID-19 cases. Although the S&P 500 stock index fell -3.9% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped -2.3% during September, the same indexes levitated +8.5% and +7.6% for the third quarter, respectively.

Source: Investors.com
Washington Worries
Anxiety over politics is nothing new, and as I’ve written extensively in my Investing Caffeine blog, history teaches us that politics have little to do with the long-term performance of the overall stock market (e.g., see Politics & Your Money). Nobody knows with certainty how the elections will impact the financial markets and economy (myself included). But what I do know is that many so-called experts said the stock market would decline if Barack Obama won the presidential election…in reality the stock market soared. I also know the so-called experts said the stock market would decline if Donald Trump won the presidential election… in reality the stock market soared. So, suffice it to say, I don’t place a lot of faith into what any of the so-called political experts say about the outcome of upcoming elections (see the chart below).

COVID Coming Back?
One of the reasons stock prices have risen more than 50%+ is due to a stabilization in COVID-19 virus trends. As you can see from the charts below, new tests, hospitalizations, and death rates are generally on good trajectories, according to the COVID Tracking Project. However, new COVID cases have bumped higher in recent weeks. This recent, troubling trend has raised the question of whether another wave of cases is building in front of a dangerous, seasonally-cooler fall flu season. Traditionally, it’s during this fall period in which contagious viruses normally spread faster.


Source: The COVID Tracking Project
Regardless of the trendline in new cases, there is plenty of other promising COVID developments to help fight this pandemic, such as the pending approvals of numerous vaccines, along with improved therapies and treatments, such as therapeutics, steroids, blood thinners, ventilators, and monoclonal antibodies.
Business Bounce
From the 10,000-foot level, despite worries over various political outcomes, the economy is recovering relatively vigorously. As you can see from the chart below, the rebound in employment has been fairly swift. After peaking in April at 14.7%, the most recent unemployment rate has declined to 8.4%, and a closely tracked ADP National Employment Report was released yesterday showing a higher than expected increase in new private-sector monthly jobs (749,000 vs. 649,000 median estimate).

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
From a housing perspective, house sales have been on fire. Record-low interest rates, mortgage rates, and refinancing rates have been driving higher home purchases and rising prices. Urban flight to the suburbs has also been a big housing tailwind due to the desire for more socially distanced room, additional home office space, and expansive backyards. Adding fuel to the housing fire has been record low supply (i.e., home inventories). The robust demand is evident by the record Case-Shiller home prices (see chart below).

Source: Calculated Risk
There are plenty of industries hurting, including airlines, cruise lines, hotels, retailers, and restaurants but the economic rebound along with government stimulus (i.e., direct government checks and unemployment relief payments) have led to record retail sales (see chart below). Spending could cool if an additional coronavirus-related stimulus package agreement is not reached, but until the government checks stop flowing, consumers will keep spending.

Source: Calculated Risk
Besides trillions of dollars in fiscal relief injected into the economy, the Federal Reserve has also provided trillions in unprecedented relief (see chart below) through its government and corporate bond buying programs, in addition to its Main Street Lending Program.

Source:The Financial Times
There has been a lot of political hocus pocus and COVID smoke & mirrors that have much of the population worried about their investments. In every presidential election, you have about half the population satisfied with the winner, and half the population disappointed in the winner…this election will be no different. The illusion of fear and chaos is bound to create some short-term financial market volatility over the next month, but behind the curtains there are numerous positive, contributing factors that are powering the economy and stock market forward. Do yourself a favor by focusing on your long-term financial future and don’t succumb to politics and COVID tricks.

Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
This article is an excerpt from a previously released Sidoxia Capital Management complimentary newsletter (October 1, 2020). Subscribe on the right side of the page for the complete text.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions in certain exchange traded funds (ETFS), but at the time of publishing had no direct position in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.
January a Ball After Year-End Fall
Investors were cheerfully dancing last month after the stock market posted its best January in 30 years and the best monthly performance since October 2015 (see chart below). More specifically, the S&P 500 index started the year by catapulting +7.9% higher (the best January since 1987), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1,672 points to 25,000, or +7.2%. But over the last few months there has been plenty of heartburn and volatility. The December so-called Santa Claus rally did not occur until a large pre-Christmas pullback. From the September record high, stocks temporarily fell about -20% before the recent jolly +15% post-Christmas rebound.
Source: FactSet via The Wall Street Journal
Although investors have been gleefully boogying on the short-run financial dance floor, there have been plenty of issues causing uncomfortable blisters. At the top of the list is China-U.S. trade. The world is eagerly watching the two largest global economic powerhouses as they continue to delicately dance through trade negotiations. Even though neither country has slipped or fallen since the 90-day trade truce, which began on December 1 in Buenos Aires, the stakes remain high. If an agreement is not reached by March 2, tariffs on imported Chinese goods would increase to 25% from 10% on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, thereby raising prices for U.S. consumers and potentially leading to further retaliatory responses from Beijing.
When it comes to the subjects of intellectual property protection and forced technology transfers of American companies doing business in China, President Xi Jinping has been uncomfortably stepping on President Donald Trump’s toes. Nothing has been formally finalized, however Chinese officials have signaled they are willing to make some structural reforms relating to these thorny issues and have also expressed a willingness to narrow the trade deficit with our country by purchasing more of our exports. Besides procuring more American energy goods, the Chinese have also committed to buy 5,000,000 tons of our country’s soybeans to feed China’s hungry population of 1.4 billion people.
Reaching a trade settlement is important for both countries, especially in light of the slowing Chinese economy (see chart below) and the dissipating stimulus benefits of the 2018 U.S. tax cuts. Slowing growth in China has implications beyond our borders as witnessed by slowing growth in Europe as evidenced by protests we have seen in France and the contraction of German manufacturing (the first time in over four years). Failed Brexit talks of the U.K. potentially leaving the European Union could add fuel to the global slowdown fire if an agreement cannot be reached by the March 29th deadline in a couple months.
Source: Wind via The Wall Street Journal
While the temporary halt to the longest partial federal government shutdown in history (35 days) has brought some short-term relief to the 800,000 government workers/contractors who did not receive pay, the political standoff over border security may last longer than expected, which may further dampen U.S. economic activity and growth. Whether the hot-button issue of border wall funding is resolved by February 15th will determine if another shutdown is in the cards.
Despite China trade negotiations and the government shutdown deadlock placing a cloud over financial markets, brighter skies have begun to emerge in other areas. First and foremost has been the positive shift in positioning by the Federal Reserve as it relates to monetary policy. Not only has Jay Powell (Fed Chairman) communicated a clear signal of being “patient” on future interest rate target increases, but he has also taken the Fed off of “autopilot” as it relates to shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet – a process that can hinder economic growth. Combined, these shifts in strategy by the Fed have been enthusiastically received by investors, which has been a large contributor to the +15% rebound in stock prices since the December lows. Thanks to this change in stance, the inverted yield curve bogeyman that typically precedes post-World War II recessions has been held at bay as evidenced by the steepening yield curve (see chart below).
Source: Calafia Beach Pundit
Other areas of strength include the recent employment data, which showed 304,000 jobs added in January, the 100th consecutive month of increased employment. Fears of an imminent recession that penetrated psyches in the fourth quarter have abated significantly in January in part because of the notable strength seen in 4th quarter corporate profits, which so far have increased by +12% from last year, according to FactSet. The strength and rebound in overall commodity prices, including oil, seem to indicate any potential looming recession is likely further out in time than emotionally feared.
Source: Calafia Beach Pundit
As the chart above shows, over the last four years, spikes in fear (red line) have represented beneficial buying opportunities of stocks (blue line). The pace of gains in January is just as unsustainable as the pace of fourth-quarter losses were in stock prices. Uncertainties may remain on trade, shutdowns, geopolitics, and other issues but don’t throw away your investing dance shoes quite yet…the ball and music experienced last month could continue for a longer than expected period of time.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
This article is an excerpt from a previously released Sidoxia Capital Management complimentary newsletter (February 1, 2018). Subscribe on the right side of the page for the complete text.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions and certain exchange traded funds (ETFs), but at the time of publishing had no direct position in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.
Marathon Market Gets a Cramp
This article is an excerpt from a previously released Sidoxia Capital Management complimentary newsletter (October 1, 2015). Subscribe on the right side of the page for the complete text.
“Anyone can run a hundred meters, it’s the next forty-two thousand and two hundred that count.”
Investing is a lot like running a marathon…but it’s not a sprint to the retirement finish line. The satisfaction of achieving your long-term goal can be quite rewarding, but attaining ambitious objectives does not happen overnight. Along the hilly and winding course, there can be plenty of bumps and bruises mixed in with the elation of a runner’s high. While stocks have been running at a record pace in recent years, prices have cramped up recently as evidenced by the -2.6% decline of the S&P 500 stock index last month.
But the recent correction should be placed in the proper perspective as you approach and reach retirement. Since the end of the 2008 Financial Crisis the stock market has been racing ahead at a brisk rate, as you can see from the total return performance below (excluding 2015):
This performance is more indicative of a triumph than a catastrophe, but if you turned on the TV, listened to the radio, or surfed the web, you may come to a more frightening conclusion.
What’s behind the recent dip? These are some of the key concerns driving the recent price volatility:
- China: Slowing growth in China and collapse in Chinese stock market. China is suffering from a self-induced slowdown designed to mitigate corruption, prick the real estate bubble, and shift its export-driven economy to a more consumer-driven economy. These steps diminish short-term growth (albeit faster than U.S. growth), but nevertheless the measures should be constructive for longer-term growth.
- Interest Rates: Uncertainty surrounding the timing of a 0.25% target interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve. The move from 0% to 0.25% is like walking from the hardwood floor onto the rug…hardly noticeable. The inevitable move by the Fed has been widely communicated for months, and given where interest rates are today, the move will have a negligible impact on corporate borrowing costs. Like removing a Band-Aid, the initial action may cause some pain, but should be comfortably received shortly thereafter.
- Politics: Potential government shutdown / sequestration. The epic political saga will never end, however, as I highlighted in “Who Said Gridlock is Bad?,” political discourse in Washington has resulted in positive outcomes as it relates to our country’s fiscal situation (limited government spending and declining deficits). The government shutdown appears to have been averted for now, but it looks like we will be blanketed with brinkmanship nonsense again in a few months.
- Biotech/Pharmaceuticals: Politics over lofty drug prices and the potential impact of future regulation on the biotech sector. Given the current Congressional balance of power, any heavy-handed Democratic proposals is likely to face rigorous Republican opposition.
- Emerging Markets: Emerging market weakness, especially in Latin America (e.g., Brazil). These developments deserve close monitoring, but the growth in the three largest economic regions (U.S., Europe, and China) will have a much larger effect on the direction of global economic expansion.
- Middle East: Destabilized Middle East and Syria. Terrorist extremism and cultural animosity between various Middle East populations has existed for generations. There will be no silver bullet for a peaceful solution, so baby steps and containment are critical to maintain healthy global trade activity with minimal disruptions.
Worth noting, this current list of anxieties itemized above is completely different from six months ago (remember the Greece crisis?), and the list will change again six months into the future. Investing, like any competitive challenge, does not come easy…there is always something to worry about in the land of economics and geopolitics.
Here’s what the world’s top investor Warren Buffett said a few decades ago (1994) on the topic of politics and economics:
“We will continue to ignore political and economic forecasts which are an expensive distraction for investors and businessmen. Thirty years ago, no one could have foreseen the huge expansion of the Vietnam War, wage and price controls, two oil shocks, the resignation of a president, the dissolution of the Soviet Union, a one-day drop in the Dow of 508 points, or treasury bill yields fluctuating between 2.8% and 17.4%.”
In a world of 7.3 billion people and 196 countries there will never be a shortage of fear, uncertainty, and doubt (F.U.D.) – see events chart in The Bungee Market. In an ever-increasing, globally connected world, technology and the media continually amplify molehills into mountains, thereby making the next imagined Armageddon a simple click of a mouse or swipe of a smartphone away.
Today’s concerns are valid but in the vast majority of cases the issues are completely overblown, sensationalized and over-emphasized without context. Context is an integral part to investing, but unfortunately context usually cannot be explained in a short soundbite or headline. On the flip side, F.U.D. thrives in the realm of soundbites and headlines.
While investors may feel fatigued from a strong flow of headline headwinds, financial market race participants should take a break at the water stop to also replenish themselves with a steady tailwind of positive factors, including the following:
- Employment: The unemployment rate has been cut from a recession peak of 10.0% down to 5.1%, and the economy has been adding roughly +200,000 new monthly jobs on a fairly consistent basis. On top of that, there are a record 5.8 million job openings versus 3.7 million two years ago – a sign that the economy continues to hum along.
- Housing/Commercial Real Estate/Mortgage Rates: Housing prices have rebounded by about +30% from the 2012 lows; Housing starts have increased by +25% in the past year and 120% in the past four years; and 30-Year Fixed mortgage interest rates sit at 3.85% – a highly stimulative level within a spitting distance from record lows.
- Auto Sales: Surged to a post-recession record of 17.8 million units in August.
- Interest Rates: Massively stimulative and near generational lows, even if the Fed hikes its interest rate target by 0.25% in October, December or sometime in 2016.
- Capital Goods Orders: Up for three consecutive months.
- Rail Shipments/Truck Tonnage: Both these metrics are rising by about 3-4%.
- Retail Sales: Rising at a very respectable pace of 7% over the last six months.
- Low Energy & Commodity Prices: Inflation has remained largely in check thanks to plummeting commodity prices. Low oil and gas prices are benefiting consumers in numerous ways, including the contribution to car sales, home sales, and/or debt reduction.
While the -10% dip in stock prices from mid-August might feel like a torn knee ligament, long-term investors know -10% corrections historically occur about one-time per year, on average. So, even though you may be begging for a wheelchair, the best course of action is to take a deep breath, stick to your long-term investment plan, rebalance your portfolio if necessary, and continue staying on course towards your financial finish line.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions in certain exchange traded funds (ETFs) , but at the time of publishing, SCM had no direct position in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.
Fear & Greed Occupy Wall Street in October
Excerpt from Free November Sidoxia Monthly Newsletter (Subscribe on right-side of page)
Fear and frustration dominated investor psyches during August and September as backlash from political gridlock in the U.S. and worries of European contagion dominated action in volatile investment portfolios. Elevated 9.1% unemployment and a sluggish recovery in the U.S. also led populist Occupy Wall Street protesters to flood our nation’s streets, blaming the bankers and the wealthy as the cause for personal misfortunes and the widening gap between rich and poor. However, in the face of the palpable pessimism, economic Halloween treats and greedy corporate profits scared away bearish naysayers like invisible ghosts during the month of October.
While many investors stayed home for Halloween in the supposed comfort of their inflation-losing savings accounts and bonds, those investors choosing to brave the chilling elements in the frightening equity markets were handsomely rewarded. Stockholders tasted the sweet pleasure of a +11% October return in the S&P 500 index, the largest monthly advance in 20 years.
Of course, as I always advise, investors should not load themselves to the gills in stocks just to chase performance. Rather, investors should construct a diversified portfolio designed to meet one’s objectives, constraints, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs. Within that context, a portfolio should also periodically rebalance by selling pricey investments (i.e., Treasuries) and redeploy those proceeds into unloved investments (i.e., equities).
Glass Half Full
There is never a shortage of reasons to be fearful and a one-month rally in equities is not reason enough to blindly pile on risk, but there are plenty of reasons to counter the endless pessimism pornography peddled by media outlets on a continuous basis. Here are some of the “half-full” reasons:
- Euro Plan in Place: After months of conflicting headlines, European leaders reached an agreement to increase the European Union’s bailout fund to one trillion euros ($1.4 trillion) and negotiated a -50% debt reduction deal with Greek bondholders. In addition, European officials agreed on a plan to increase bank reserves by 106 billion euros to support potential bank losses due to European debt defaults. This plan is not a silver bullet, but it is a start.
- Bulging Corporate Profits: With the majority of S&P 500 companies now having reported their actual third quarter results, profit growth is estimated to exceed +16% for the three month period ending in September. Expectations for fourth quarter earnings are currently forecasted to top a respectable +11% growth rate (Data from Thomson Reuters).
- Tortoise-Like Growth Continues: Even though it’s Halloween, the double-dip recession boogeyman is still hiding. U.S. economic growth actually accelerated its growth to +2.5% in the third quarter on a year-over-year basis, up from +1.3% last quarter. The growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was primarily driven by consumer and business spending.
- Jobs Still on the Rise: The unemployment rate remains stubbornly high, but offsetting the ongoing decline in government jobs has been a 19 consecutive month spurt in private job creation activity, resulting in +2.6 million jobs being added to the economy over the period. This doesn’t make up for the 8 million+ jobs lost during the 2008-2009 recession, but the economy is moving in the right direction.
- Consumers Opening Wallet: Consumers can be like cockroaches in that they are difficult to kill off when it comes to spending. Consumers whipped out their wallets in September as retail sales advanced at a brisk +7.9% pace (+7.8% excluding auto sales).
- Dividends on the Rise: While nervous Nellies park money in money losing cash and Treasuries (on an inflation-adjusted basis), corporations flush with cash are increasing dividends at a rapid clip. According to Standard & Poor’s rating agency, dividend increases rose over +17% during the third quarter of 2011. As of October 25th, the indicated dividend for the S&P stood at a decent +2.20% rate.
I am fully aware that equity investors are not out of the woods yet, as the European debt crisis has not been resolved, and the structural deficit/debt issues we face in the U.S. still have a long way to go before becoming disentangled. As a matter of fact, fear is building as we approach the looming deficit reduction Super Committee resolution (or lack thereof) later this month – I can hardly wait. If a $1.5 trillion bipartisan debt reduction agreement can’t be reached, some bored Occupy Wall Street protesters can shift priorities and take a tour bus to Washington D.C. to demonstrate. Regardless of the potential grand European or Washington debt plans that may or may not transpire, observers can rest assured fear and greed are two emotions that will remain alive and well when it comes to Wall Street and “Main Street” portfolios.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients own certain exchange traded funds, but at the time of publishing SCM had no direct position in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC “Contact” page.