Posts tagged ‘rate increase’
Fed Ripping Off the Inflation Band-Aid
Inflation rates have been running near 40-year highs, and as a result, the Federal Reserve is doing everything in its power to rip off the Band-Aid of insidious high price levels in a swift manner. The Fed’s goal is to inflict quick, near-term pain on the economy in exchange for long-term price stability and future economic gains. How quickly has the Fed been hiking interest rates? The short answer is the rate of increases has been the fastest in decades (see chart below). Essentially, the Federal Reserve has pushed the targeted benchmark Federal Funds target rate from 0% at the beginning of this year to 3.25% today. Going forward, the goal is to lift rates to 4.4% by year-end, and then to 4.6% by next year (see Fed’s “dot plot” chart).
How should one interpret all of this? Well, if the Fed is right about their interest rate forecasts, the Band-Aid is being ripped off very quickly, and 95% of the pain should be felt by December. In other words, there should be a light at the end of the tunnel, soon.
The Good News on Inflation
When it comes to inflation, the good news is that it appears to be peaking (see chart below), and many economists see the declining inflation trend continuing in the coming months. Why do pundits see inflation peaking? For starters, a broad list of commodity prices have declined significantly in recent months, including gasoline, crude oil, steel, copper, and gold, among many others.
Outside of commodities, investors have seen prices drop in other areas of the economy as well, including housing prices, which recently experienced the fastest monthly price drop in 11 years, and rent prices as well (see chart below).
Anybody who was shopping for a car during the pandemic knows what happened to pricing – it exploded higher. But even in this area, we are seeing prices coming down (see chart below), and CarMax Inc. (KMX), the national used car retail chain confirmed the softening price trend last week.
Pain Spread Broadly
When interest rates increase at the fastest pace in 40 years, pain is felt across almost all asset classes. It’s not just U.S. stocks, which declined -9.3% last month (S&P 500), but it’s also housing -8.5% (XHB), real estate investment trusts -13.8% (VNQ), bonds -4.4% (BND), Bitcoin -3.1%, European stocks -10.1% (VGK), Chinese stocks -14.4% (FXI), and Agriculture -3.0% (DBA). The +17% increase in the value of the U.S. dollar this year against a basket of foreign currencies is substantially pressuring cross-border business for larger multi-national companies too – Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), for example, blamed U.S. dollar strength as the primary reason to cut earnings several months ago. Like Hurricane Ian, large interest rate increases have caused significant damage across a wide swath of areas.
But for those following the communication of Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, in recent months, they should not be surprised. Chairman Powell has signaled on numerous occasions, including last month at a key economic conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that the Fed’s war path to curb inflation by increasing interest rates will inflict wide-ranging “pain” on Americans. Some of that pain can be seen in mortgage rates, which have more than doubled in 2022 and last week eclipsed 7.0% (see chart below), the highest level in 20 years.
Now is Not the Time to Panic
There is a lot of uncertainty out in the world currently (i.e., inflation, the Fed, Russia-Ukraine, strong dollar, elections, recession fears, etc.), but that is always the case. There is never a period when there is nothing to be concerned about. With the S&P 500 down more than -25% from its peak (and the NASDAQ down approximately -35%), now is not the right time to panic. Knee-jerk emotional decisions during stressful times are very rarely the right response. With these kind of drops, a mild-to-moderate recession is already baked into the cake, even though the economy is expected to grow for the next four quarters and for all of 2023 (see GDP forecasts below). Stated differently, it’s quite possible that even if the economy deteriorates into a recession, stock prices could rebound smartly higher because any potential future bad news has already been anticipated in the current price drops.
Worth noting, as I have pointed out previously, numerous data points are indicating inflation is peaking, if not already coming down. Inflation expectations have already dropped to about 2%, if you consider the spread between the yield on the 5-Year Note (4%) and the yield on the 5-Year TIP-Treasury Inflation Protected Note (2%). If the economy continues to slow down, and inflation has stabilized or declined, the Federal Reserve will likely pivot to decreasing interest rates, which should act like a tailwind for financial markets, unlike the headwind of rising rates this year.
Ripping off the Band-Aid can be painful in the short-run, but the long-term gains achieved during the healing process can be much more pleasurable.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions in MSFT, BND and certain exchange traded funds (ETFs), but at the time of publishing had no direct position in KMX, XHB, VNQ, VGK, FXI, DBA or any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.
The Sky is Falling?
Investors reacted like the sky was falling on Friday. Commentators mostly blamed the -400 point decline in the Dow on heightened probabilities for a September rate hike by Janet Yellen and her fellow Federal Reserve colleagues. Geopolitical concerns over a crazy dictator in North Korea with nuclear weapons were identified as contributing factors to frazzled nerves.
The real question should be, “Are these stories complete noise, or should I pay close attention?” For the vast majority of times, the response to questions like these should be “yes”, the media headlines are mere distractions and you should simply ignore them. During the last rate hike cycle from mid-2004 to mid-2006, guess how many times the Fed raised rates? Seventeen times! And over those 17 rate hikes, stocks managed to respectably rise over 11%.
So far this cycle, Yellen and the Fed have raised interest rates one time, and the one and only hike was the first increase in a decade. Given all this data, does it really make sense to run in a panic to a bunker or cave? Whether the Fed increases rates by 0.25% during September or Decemberis completely irrelevant.
If we look at the current situation from a slightly different angle, you can quickly realize that making critical investment decisions based on short-term Federal Reserve actions would be foolish. Would you buy or sell a house based solely on this month’s Fed policy? For most, the answer is an emphatic “no”. The same response should hold true for stocks as well. The real reason anyone should consider buying any type of asset, including stocks, is because you believe you are paying a fair or discounted price for a stream of adequate future cash flows (distributions) and/or price appreciation in the asset value over the long-term.
The problem today for many investors is “short-termism.” This is what Jack Gray of Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo and Company had to say on the subject, “Excessive short-termism results in permanent destruction of wealth, or at least permanent transfer of wealth.” I couldn’t agree more.
Many people like to speculate or trade stocks like they are gambling in Las Vegas. One day, when the market is up, they buy. And the other day, when the market is down, they sell. However, those same people don’t wildly speculate with short-term decision-making when they buy larger ticket items like a lawn-mower, couch, refrigerator, car, or a house. They rationally buy with the intention of owning for years.
Yes, it’s true appliances, vehicles, and homes have utility characteristics different from other assets, but stocks have unique utility characteristics too. You can’t place leftovers, drive inside, or sit on a stock, but the long-term earnings and dividend growth of a diversified stock portfolio provides plenty of distinctive income and/or retirement utility benefits to a long-term investor.
You don’t have to believe me – just listen to investing greats like Warren Buffett:
“If you aren’t willing to own a stock for ten years, don’t even think about owning it for ten minutes. Put together a portfolio of companies whose aggregate earnings march upward over the years, and so also will the portfolio’s market value.”
The common sense test can also shed some light on the subject. If short-term trading, based on the temperature of headlines, was indeed a lucrative strategy, then the wealthiest traders in the world would be littered all over the Forbes 100 list. There are many reasons that is not the case.
Even though the Volatility Index (aka, “Fear Gauge” – VIX) spiked +40% in a single day, that does not necessarily mean stock investors are out of the woods yet. We saw similar volatility occur last August and during January and June of this year. At the same time, there is no need to purchase a helmet and run to a bunker…the sky is not falling.
Other related article: Invest with a Telescope…Not a Microscope
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions in certain exchange traded funds (ETFs), but at the time of publishing had no direct position in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.
Fed Ponders New Surgical Tool
The Fed is closely monitoring the recovering patient (the U.S. economy) after providing a massive dose of monetary stimulus. The patient is feeling numb from the prescription, but if the Fed is not careful in weaning the subject off the medicine (dangerously low Federal Funds rate), dangerous side- effects such as a brand new bubble, rampant inflation, or a collapsing dollar could ensue.
In preparing for the inevitable pain of the Federal Reserve’s “exit strategy,” the institution is contemplating the use of a new tool – interest rates paid to banks on excess reserves held at the Fed. A likely by-product of any deposit-based rate increase will be higher rates charged on consumer loans.
Currently, the Federal Reserve primarily controls the targeted Federal funds rate (the rate at which banks make short-term loans to each other) through open market operations, such as the buying and selling of government securities. Specifically, repurchase agreements made between the Federal Reserve and banks are a common strategy used to control the supply and demand of money, thereby meeting the Fed’s interest rate objective.
Source: Data from Federal Reserve Bank via Wikipedia
Although a relatively new tool created from a 2006 law, paying interest on excess reserves can help in stabilizing the Federal Funds rate when the system is awash in cash – the Fed currently holds over $1 trillion in excess reserves. Failure to meet the inevitably higher Fed Funds target is a major reason policymakers are contemplating the new tool. The Fed started paying interest rates on reserves, presently 0.25%, in the midst of the financial crisis in late 2008. Rate policy implementation based on excess reserves would build a stable floor for Federal Funds rate since banks are unlikely to lend to each other below the set Fed rate. The excess reserve rate-setting tool, although a novel one for the United States, is used by many foreign central banks.
Watching the Fed
While the Fed discusses the potential of new tools, other crisis-originated tools designed to improve liquidity are unwinding. For example, starting February 1st, emergency programs supporting the commercial paper, money market, and central bank swap markets will come to a close. The closure of such program should have minimal impact, since the usage of these tools has either stopped or fizzled out.
Fed watchers will also be paying attention to comments relating to the $1 trillion+ mortgage security purchase program set to expire in March. A sudden repeal of that plan could lead to higher mortgage rates and hamper the fragile housing recovery.
When the Fed policy makers meet this week, another tool open for discussion is the rate charged on emergency loans to banks – the discount rate (currently at 0.50%). Unlike the interest rate charged on excess reserves, any change to the discount rate will not have an impact charged on consumer loans.
While the Fed’s exit strategy is a top concern, market participants can breathe a sigh of relief now that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has been decisively reappointed – lack of support would have resulted in significant turmoil.
The patient (economy) is coming back to life and now the extraordinary medicines prescribed to the subject need to be responsibly removed. As the Federal Reserve considers its range of options, old instruments are being removed and new ones are being considered. The health of the economy is dependent on these crucial decisions, and as a result all of us will be carefully watching the chosen prescription along with the patient’s vital signs.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients own certain exchange traded funds but at the time of publishing had no direct positions in securities mentioned in the article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC “Contact” page.
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