Posts tagged ‘mortgage rates’
Armageddon or Time to Get In?
Halloween is a scary time, and the stock market has experienced a frightening 2022 as well. If you turn on the television or read the news, you may think Armageddon has arrived, the last battle of biblical proportion between good and evil. Fortunately, reality is often less dire than the headlines make it appear. Given the horrific -19% decline in the stock market (S&P 500 index) this year, arguably much of the current and future dreadful news is already expected and discounted into today’s stock market prices. So, perhaps, the end of the world is not upon us, and the sentiment is shifting from “Armageddon” to “time to get in!” The soaring +4,007 point increase (+14%) in the Dow Jones Industrial Average this month, the best month since 1976, may be an indication of changing investor attitudes.
We may not be completely out of the woods just yet, however a lot of the bad cat news is arguably out of the bag. For example, the Federal Reserve has already been hiking interest rates with reckless abandon since March, and this week another increase of 0.75% to roughly 4.00% is widely expected. This move should get us much closer to a Fed “pause” or “pivot”, which could soon turn the perception of a half-empty economic glass into a half-full one?
Inflation has also been running wild for months, but many indicators have shown price levels peaking or declining (i.e., commodities, housing, autos, transportation costs, etc.). Mortgage rates that have more than doubled this year to 7.08% (see chart below) are contributing to declines in home price growth.
High mortgages and high home prices have cooled the white-hot housing market because affordability has been reduced, thereby forcing rental rates to soar. And as a result, stubbornly high rents have been a major factor contributing to persistently high inflation in recent months. If home prices continue to decline (month-to-month) as shown below, this should provide some much-needed relief to rental prices, and ultimately inflation.
And although there does not appear to be a clear end in sight to the Russia-Ukraine war, Ukraine’s recently successful land recapture accomplishments from the Russians could pressure both parties to settle at the negotiation table.
Sweet October Treats
Stock market investors received a sugar high this month with sweet index gains of +8.0% and +14.0% for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones, respectively. While it has been mostly gloomy in 2022, some of the sunshine beaming through the clouds this month came in the form of better-than-expected GDP economic figures that measure the health of the overall economy. Rather than show an impending recession, the freshest 3rd quarter data shows the economy growing at a very respectable +2.6% annualized rate after falling -0.6% in the 2nd quarter (see chart below).
And contrary to many of the doomsday-er recession forecasting mongers, corporate profits have remained tenaciously high near record levels (see chart below), with no sign of collapsing as in 2020 (COVID) or 2008 (Financial Crisis). That doesn’t mean profits can’t contract further, because the dampening effect of higher interest rates could take some time before working its way through the economic python like a pig.
One month does not make a trend, but the largest one month gain in 46 years may be evidence that the world is actually not coming to an end anytime soon. Therefore, it might be a great time to “get in” before booking your fresh trip to “Armageddon”.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions in certain exchange traded funds (ETFs), but at the time of publishing had no direct position in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.
Fed Ripping Off the Inflation Band-Aid
Inflation rates have been running near 40-year highs, and as a result, the Federal Reserve is doing everything in its power to rip off the Band-Aid of insidious high price levels in a swift manner. The Fed’s goal is to inflict quick, near-term pain on the economy in exchange for long-term price stability and future economic gains. How quickly has the Fed been hiking interest rates? The short answer is the rate of increases has been the fastest in decades (see chart below). Essentially, the Federal Reserve has pushed the targeted benchmark Federal Funds target rate from 0% at the beginning of this year to 3.25% today. Going forward, the goal is to lift rates to 4.4% by year-end, and then to 4.6% by next year (see Fed’s “dot plot” chart).
How should one interpret all of this? Well, if the Fed is right about their interest rate forecasts, the Band-Aid is being ripped off very quickly, and 95% of the pain should be felt by December. In other words, there should be a light at the end of the tunnel, soon.
The Good News on Inflation
When it comes to inflation, the good news is that it appears to be peaking (see chart below), and many economists see the declining inflation trend continuing in the coming months. Why do pundits see inflation peaking? For starters, a broad list of commodity prices have declined significantly in recent months, including gasoline, crude oil, steel, copper, and gold, among many others.
Outside of commodities, investors have seen prices drop in other areas of the economy as well, including housing prices, which recently experienced the fastest monthly price drop in 11 years, and rent prices as well (see chart below).
Anybody who was shopping for a car during the pandemic knows what happened to pricing – it exploded higher. But even in this area, we are seeing prices coming down (see chart below), and CarMax Inc. (KMX), the national used car retail chain confirmed the softening price trend last week.
Pain Spread Broadly
When interest rates increase at the fastest pace in 40 years, pain is felt across almost all asset classes. It’s not just U.S. stocks, which declined -9.3% last month (S&P 500), but it’s also housing -8.5% (XHB), real estate investment trusts -13.8% (VNQ), bonds -4.4% (BND), Bitcoin -3.1%, European stocks -10.1% (VGK), Chinese stocks -14.4% (FXI), and Agriculture -3.0% (DBA). The +17% increase in the value of the U.S. dollar this year against a basket of foreign currencies is substantially pressuring cross-border business for larger multi-national companies too – Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), for example, blamed U.S. dollar strength as the primary reason to cut earnings several months ago. Like Hurricane Ian, large interest rate increases have caused significant damage across a wide swath of areas.
But for those following the communication of Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, in recent months, they should not be surprised. Chairman Powell has signaled on numerous occasions, including last month at a key economic conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that the Fed’s war path to curb inflation by increasing interest rates will inflict wide-ranging “pain” on Americans. Some of that pain can be seen in mortgage rates, which have more than doubled in 2022 and last week eclipsed 7.0% (see chart below), the highest level in 20 years.
Now is Not the Time to Panic
There is a lot of uncertainty out in the world currently (i.e., inflation, the Fed, Russia-Ukraine, strong dollar, elections, recession fears, etc.), but that is always the case. There is never a period when there is nothing to be concerned about. With the S&P 500 down more than -25% from its peak (and the NASDAQ down approximately -35%), now is not the right time to panic. Knee-jerk emotional decisions during stressful times are very rarely the right response. With these kind of drops, a mild-to-moderate recession is already baked into the cake, even though the economy is expected to grow for the next four quarters and for all of 2023 (see GDP forecasts below). Stated differently, it’s quite possible that even if the economy deteriorates into a recession, stock prices could rebound smartly higher because any potential future bad news has already been anticipated in the current price drops.
Worth noting, as I have pointed out previously, numerous data points are indicating inflation is peaking, if not already coming down. Inflation expectations have already dropped to about 2%, if you consider the spread between the yield on the 5-Year Note (4%) and the yield on the 5-Year TIP-Treasury Inflation Protected Note (2%). If the economy continues to slow down, and inflation has stabilized or declined, the Federal Reserve will likely pivot to decreasing interest rates, which should act like a tailwind for financial markets, unlike the headwind of rising rates this year.
Ripping off the Band-Aid can be painful in the short-run, but the long-term gains achieved during the healing process can be much more pleasurable.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions in MSFT, BND and certain exchange traded funds (ETFs), but at the time of publishing had no direct position in KMX, XHB, VNQ, VGK, FXI, DBA or any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.
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