Posts tagged ‘Black Friday’
Another Year, Another Decade
Article from Sidoxia Monthly Newsletter (Subscribe on right-side of page)
As we approach the 2010 finish line, investors are reevaluating their nest eggs and investment positioning for the New Year and the new decade. After experiencing two “100 year floods” over the last decade in the form of the technology and credit bubbles bursting, a wave of conservatism has swung everyone over to one side of the boat, in the form of cash, CDs, Treasury Bonds, and other fixed income instruments.
These conservative tools should absolutely be a part of everybody’s portfolio (especially for those in or near retirement), but an overly conservative portfolio can end up drowning more people than saving them. Bonds run the risk of collapsing in value if interest rates spike or potential inflation rears its ugly head. Under both scenarios, purchasing power and retirement lifestyle can be significantly compromised. Diversification and duration shortening (less sensitivity to interest rate changes) strategies should be explored to better manage these risks.
Ignore the Good, Highlight the Bad
With the financial crisis so close in our rearview mirror, putting those fiscal fears to rest can be difficult, even if the equity markets have rebounded between +80% (S&P 500) and +100% (NASDAQ) over the last 18 months. These fresh worries have diminished the attention placed on some of the positive undercurrents occurring in the economy:
· GDP Growth: You wouldn’t know it, but we have experienced five consecutive quarters of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth with a recently upwardly revised Q3-2010 growth figure to +2.5% (from previous +2.0% estimate).
· Job Growth: Although the unemployment rate has stubbornly remained in the 9.6% range, the country has created more than 1million jobs over the last year, thanks to ten consecutive months of private job creation. We’ll find out more about hiring trends this Friday.
· Record Profits: S&P 500 profits are on track to exceed the $88 peak profit earned by the index in 2006 (Thomson). Corporations may not be hiring in droves, but the cash is piling up for increased investment and pent-up hiring. Unprofitable companies generally do not hire.
· Changing of the Guard: Regardless of political leanings, with Presidential re-elections only two years away and Republicans gaining control of the House, some common ground between the Right and the Left could be found. Specifically, gridlock is the default, but there is genuine potential for compromise on taxes, fiscal restraint, tax relief, and investment incentives with the aim of sparking job creation.
· Holiday Cheer: Holiday sales got off to a good start judging by “Black Friday” (the day after Thanksgiving) and “Cyber Monday” – the day after Thanksgiving weekend. Sales on Cyber Monday rose +19.4% versus last year, according to Coremetrics. Traffic to retail stores and websites over Black Friday weekend increased by +9%, reportedthe National Retail Federation.
Keeping a lid on the enthusiasm are the following:
· Un-Luck of the Irish: With the recently announced $112 billion bailout of Ireland, focus has returned to the other side of the pond. Too much debt at Irish banks and excessive spending by the government has forced a large bailout, which has created contagion worries across some of the weaker Eurozone countries.
· Korean Skirmish: Apparently sinking a South Korean warship earlier this year was not enough belligerent activity for North Korea in a year, so they decided to bomb and kill innocent civilians recently. Will China help deflate the tension, or will our military just get stretched thinner in support of our southern ally?
· QE2/Inflation: Yesterday the fear was deflation, today the fear is inflation, but don’t hold your breath, a new “flation” phobia will likely be reintroduced tomorrow. Although the U.S. dollar has bounced of late on European concerns, longer term investors worry about the debasement of the currency because of funny money printing.
· China Taking a Brake? Inflation is on the upswing (+4.4% in October) and concerns over Chinese government officials pressing the brakes on speculative real estate growth (reserve rate increased by +0.5%) may hamper overall expansion.
· Insider Trading: Consensus thinking has it that Wall Street is rigged. The SEC is hoping to rebuild credibility after receiving a black eye for its poor handling of the Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme scandal. The FBI raided three hedge funds, which may be the beginning of a widespread investigation.
As you can see, some items fall on both sides of the positive/negative ledger. Although many of the green shoots of 2009 have sprouted, critics complain the recovery process has progresses too slowly. Regardless of the worries, we have had 11 recessions and recoveries since World War II, and the average expansion has lasted five years. While we approach the next decade, do your portfolio a favor and focus on optimizing a proper diversified portfolio taking advantage of current multi-year opportunities, rather than succumbing to the endless fountain of daily pessimism.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients own certain exchange traded funds, but at the time of publishing SCM had no direct position in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC “Contact” page.
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