Posts filed under ‘Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)’
Insane Gain After Fed & Ukraine Pain
After a painful start to 2022, the stock market surged last month, with the S&P 500 index gaining a respectable +3.6%, while the technology-heavy NASDAQ index rose by +3.4%. With volatility on the rise, getting caught up in the emotions of the headlines can be challenging for some investors. At Sidoxia, we are determined to objectively stick to the facts and migrate investments to the areas of the market that provide the best risk-reward opportunities to our clients, based on their unique objectives and constraints. There certainly are some headwinds for investors to contend with, but for long-term investors, it’s also important to recognize the positive tailwinds and not miss the forest for the trees.
As I pointed out last month, we are coming off a heroic advance over the last three years (2019/2020/2021) with the S&P 500 soaring +90%. The hangover from COVID has created significant supply chain disruptions and widespread economic shortages. Adding the Russian invasion of Ukraine to the mix has been like pouring gasoline on the flames of inflation, especially when it comes to the energy and food sectors. As you can see from the CRB index below (a basket of 19 commodities ranging from aluminum to orange juice and live cattle to wheat), in recent years the index has been highly volatile in both directions, but is up +27% this year. Since the COVID-driven trough, prices have about tripled over the last two years, but that does not mean prices will fly to the moon forever.
Many traders have short-term memories. People forget that commodity prices approximately doubled after the 2008 Financial Crisis, only to experience a subsequent slow bleed over the next decade until prices were essentially chopped in half. As the saying goes, “price cures price.” In other words, as prices skyrocket, greedy capitalists and businesses then decide to take advantage of the high pricing environment by investing to produce more supply, which eventually leads to deflation. This supply expansion process takes time and will not happen overnight.
With gasoline prices exceeding $4/gallon nationally, and breaching $6/gallon in my Southern California backyard (see chart below), it should come as no surprise that oil companies are taking advantage of the lucrative environment by drilling for more oil.
The rising Baker Hughes drilling rig count below reflects the miracle of supply-demand economics operating in full force. As prices rise and accelerate during geopolitical shocks like we have experienced in Ukraine, naturally supply rises, which eventually depresses prices until an equilibrium is reached. Even our government is now attempting to increase supply by releasing up to 180 million barrels of oil from our country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve (the largest release in the almost 50-year history of the reserve), while also pushing for penalties on those energy companies sitting on unused permits (i.e., not producing oil on leased oil land). High energy prices will most certainly become a hot-button political issue in the upcoming midterm elections.
Adding to investor anxiety, our Federal Reserve is embarking on an interest rate hiking cycle that is expected to take the targeted Federal Funds interest rate from effectively 0% to a range around 2.5% over the next couple of years. The Fed’s goal is to increase the cost of borrowing, thereby slowing down the economy and reducing inflation. On the surface this sounds scary, but do you remember what happened the last time the Fed tapped the interest rate brakes during 2015 – 2018? Despite the Fed raising interest rates from 0% to 2.5%, the stock market increased dramatically over that timeframe. The current Fed interest rate cycle may more closely resemble 1994 when the Fed aggressively hiked rates from 3% to 6%. Similar to now, back then stock prices swung wildly throughout the year to eventually finish the year flattish.
If Things Are So Bad, Why Are Prices Going Up?
In the face of such horrible and scary headlines, how can prices still go up? The short answer is that companies are making money hand over fist and the economy remains strong (3.6% unemployment rate; record 11.3m job openings; 3% forecasted growth in 2022 GDP) in a post-COVID recovery world, where consumers remain financially healthy and are now looking to spend their shelter-in-place savings on vacations, houses, and cars (all healthy industries).
Not only are corporate profits at record levels, they are also expected to grow at a healthy rate (+10% in 2022, +10% in 2023) after mind-boggling growth of +50% in 2021 (see chart below).
Could the headwinds previously described cause prices to go lower? They certainly could, but valuations remain attractive given where interest rates currently stand. If interest rates rise dramatically, all else equal, then that will be challenging for all asset pricing. Moreover, discounting or forecasting future Russian military actions is a difficult chore as well, which could also potentially throw a curve ball at investors.
In the meantime, what are companies doing with this flood of growing cash? Well, besides combing the job boards in search of hiring a scarce number of qualified workers, investing in technology to improve productivity, and expanding geographically to grow revenues, companies are also returning gobs of cash to investors in the form of record, swelling dividends and share buybacks (see charts below).
Darling Dividends
The gift that keeps on giving. Dividends now amount to more than half a trillion dollars and they are still growing.
Beautiful Buybacks
As you can see, the trajectory of buybacks are more volatile and discretionary than dividends, but record profits are driving more than $1 trillion in share buybacks on an annualized basis – not too shabby.
Although there are plenty of reasons for investors to rationalize a run for the hills, there remains some extraordinarily strong fundamental tailwinds intact. In spite of the economic pain caused by Ukraine, the Fed, and inflation, there are plenty of reasons to remain optimistic. The strong economy, impressive profit growth, historically low interest rates (even though slowly rising), cash-rich corporations, and attractive valuations mean there is still ample room for future market gains.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
This article is an excerpt from a previously released Sidoxia Capital Management complimentary newsletter (April 1, 2022). Subscribe on the right side of the page for the complete text.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions and certain exchange traded funds (ETFs), but at the time of publishing had no direct position in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.
End of the World or Status Quo?
If you were the chief executive of a newspaper, television, or magazine company, what headline stories would you run to generate the most viewers and readers? Which subjects will you choose to make me impulsively grab a magazine in the grocery line, keep me glued to the television news, or suck me in to click-bait advertisements on the web? For example, what topics below would you select to grab the most attention?
· Hurricane or Sunshine?
· High Speed Car Chase or Cat Saved from Tree?
· Bloody Murder or Baby’s Birthday?
· Messy Divorce or Wedding Celebration?
· Impeachment or Bipartisan Legislation
· End of the World or Status Quo?
If you selected the first subject in each pair above, you would likely gain much more initial interest. In choosing a winning topic, the saying goes, “what bleeds, leads.” In other words, scary or controversial stories always grab more attention than feel-good or status quo narratives. And that is why the vast majority of media outlets are drawn to negativity, just as mosquitos are attracted to bug zappers. This phenomenon can be explained in part with the help of Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman and his partner Amos Tversky, who conducted research showing the pain from losses is more than twice as painful as are the pleasures experienced from gains (see chart below).
The significant volatility seen in the stock market recently from the Russian war/invasion of Ukraine is further evidence of how this fear dynamic can create short-term panics.
Although the stock market as measured by the S&P 500 index has gone gangbusters over the last three years, almost doubling in value (2019: +29%, 2020: +16%, 2021: +27%), the S&P 500 has hit an air pocket during the first couple months of 2022 (-8%), including down -3% in February. The year started with turbulence as investors became fearful of a Federal Reserve that is entering the beginning stages of interest rate hikes while cutting stimulative bond purchases. And then last month, the Russian-Ukrainian incursion made investors even more skittish. Like always, these geopolitical events tend to be short-lived once investors realize the impact turns out to be less meaningful than initially feared. As you can see below, the worst economic impact is forecasted to be felt by Russia (consensus on 2/24/22 of approximately a -1.0% hit to economic growth), more than twice as bad as the -0.2% to -0.4% knock to growth for the U.S., Europe, and the world (see chart below). The Russian hit will likely be worse after accelerated sanctions.
As it relates to Ukraine, many Americans don’t even know where the country is located on a map. Ukraine accounts for about only 0.14% of total global GDP (i.e., a rounding error and less than 1% of total global economic activity). Russia, although larger than Ukraine, is still a relative small-fry and represents only about 3% of total global economic activity. If you live in Europe during the winter, you might be a little more concerned about Vladimir Putin’s recent activities because a lot of Europe’s energy (natural gas) is supplied by Russia through Ukraine. For example, Germany receives about half of its natural gas from Russia (see chart below).
Russia, on the other hand, is larger than Ukraine, but the red country is still a relative small-fry representing only about 3% of total global economic activity. When it comes to energy production however, Russia is more than a rounding error because the country accounts for about 11% of global energy production (#3 country globally behind the United States and Saudi Arabia). By taking all these factors into account, we can confidently state that Russia and Ukraine have a very low probability of solely pulling the global economy into recession.
If history repeats itself, this conflict will turn out to be another garden variety decline in the stock market and an opportunity to buy at a discount. It’s virtually impossible to predict a short-term bottom in stock prices has been reached, but over the long-run, stock investors have been handsomely rewarded for not panicking and staying invested (see chart below).
At the end of the day, the daily headlines will continually attempt to sell the negative story that the world is coming to an end. If you have the fortitude and discipline to ignore the irrelevant noise, the status quo of normal volatility can create more exciting opportunities and better returns for long-term investors.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
This article is an excerpt from a previously released Sidoxia Capital Management complimentary newsletter (March 1, 2022). Subscribe on the right side of the page for the complete text.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions and certain exchange traded funds (ETFs), but at the time of publishing had no direct position in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.
From Rocket Ship to Roller Coaster
The stock market has been like a rocket ship over the last three years 2019/2020/2021, advancing +90% as measured by the S&P 500 index, and +136% for the NASDAQ. After this meteoric multi-year rise, stock values started to come back to earth in 2022, and the rocket ship turned into a roller coaster during January. More specifically, the S&P 500 fell -5% for the month and the NASDAQ -9%. Yes, it’s true volatility has increased, and your blood pressure may have risen with all the ups and downs. However, the fact remains the economy remains strong, corporate profits are at record levels, unemployment is low, and interest rates remain at attractive levels despite nagging inflation (see chart below) and the removal of accommodative monetary policies by the Federal Reserve.
Math Matters
I did okay in school and was educated on many different topics, including the basic principle that math matters. This notion rings especially true when it comes to finance and investing. As I have discussed numerous times in the past, money goes where it is treated best, which is why interest rates, cash flows, and valuations play such a key role in ultimately determining long-term values across all asset classes. This concept of money seeking the best home applies equally to stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities, crypto-currencies, and any other asset class you can imagine because interest rates help determine the cost of holding and using money.
Normally, mathematics teaches us the lesson that more is better when discussing financial matters. And currently the stock market is compensating investors significantly more for investing in stocks relative to investing in bonds – I have reviewed this concept repeatedly on my Investing Caffeine blog (see Going Shopping: Chicken vs. Beef ). Currently, investors are getting paid about +5% to hold stocks based on the forward earnings yield (i.e., the inverse of the stock market’s Price-Earnings ratio of 20x) vs. the +2% yield on the 10-Year Treasury Note (1.78% more precisely on 1/31/22). What’s more, historically speaking, stock investors typically get rewarded with an earnings yield that doubles about every 10 years, whereas bond yields usually remain stagnantly flat, if bonds are held until maturity.
With that said, I am always quick to point out that diversification in a portfolio is important (i.e., most people should at least own some bonds), even if bonds are currently very expensive relative to other asset classes (see Sleeping on Expensive Financial Pillows). If bond yields climb significantly to the point where returns are more competitive with stocks, I will likely be buying significantly more bonds for me and my Sidoxia (www.sidoxia.com) clients.
Fed Jitters
The recent stock market volatility is reinforcing the idea that the Federal Reserve’s more aggressive stance regarding hiking interest rates is making many investors very anxious – just not me. I have lived through many tightening cycles in my lifetime and lived to tell the tale. It is true that all else equal, higher interest rates generally depress asset values, but it is also important to place the current interest rate environment in historical context. Although the Federal Funds interest rate target is expected to increase to 2.5% over the next few years (currently at 0%), this forecast is nothing new and there is no guarantee the Fed can successfully pull off this feat. Many people have short memories and forget the Fed hiked interest rates 10 times from the end of 2015 through 2018. In the face of this scary period, the stock market (S&P 500) still managed to approximately climb a respectable +22% (albeit with some volatility). Furthermore, if you give the Fed the benefit of the doubt of achieving this uncertain target, this 2.5% level is very appealing and still extremely low, historically speaking (see chart below).
When discussing interest rates and inflation, investors should also expand their views globally to the other 95% of the world’s population. Many investors are very myopic in their focus on U.S. interest rates. It is important to understand that rates are not just low here in the United States, but also low almost everywhere else as well. While international interest rates have bounced marginally higher in recent months, those countries’ long-term international rates, by and large, remain tremendously low too – in most cases even lower than rates in the U.S. (see chart below). Yes, the Fed has some control over short-term interest rates in the U.S., but considering other crucial forces that are depressing long-term global rates is worth pondering. Factors such as globalization and the pervading expansion of deflationary technology into our personal and work lives are contributing to disinflation. Valuable conclusions can be synthesized beyond digesting the pessimistic and nauseating analysis of Jerome Powell’s Congressional testimony, along with the needless wordsmithing of recent Fed minutes.
In order to earn above-average, financial returns in your portfolio over the long-run, experiencing unsettling volatility and corrections is the price of doing business. Flying on rocket ships might be fun, but sometimes the rocket can run out of gas, and you are forced to jump on a roller coaster. The ups-and-downs can be frustrating at times, but if you stay on for the full ride, you will almost always end with a smile on your face when it’s over.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
This article is an excerpt from a previously released Sidoxia Capital Management complimentary newsletter (February 1, 2022). Subscribe on the right side of the page for the complete text.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions in PFE and certain exchange traded funds (ETFs), but at the time of publishing had no direct position in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.
The Rocket Science of Investing – Armageddon Yet to Arrive
In the face of an incredibly scary global pandemic, the stock market completed a phenomenal year (S&P 500 rocketed +27%) closing at a new all-time monthly record high, after also posting incredible results in 2020 (+16%) and 2019 (+29%). Naturally, the follow-on question I get most is, “What about next year?” And to this question, I annoyingly provide the same answer as the most successful long-term investor of all-time, Warren Buffett, “I have no idea.”
But with that said, despite lacking the skill of 100% clairvoyance, my investment firm Sidoxia Capital Management and our strategies have performed quite well over the long-run for numerous reasons. As it turns out, the power of compounding, coupled with low-cost, tax-efficient investing can produce quite spectacular results. Throw in some good stock picking, and that is frosting on a cake recipe of success. Thank you Amazon.com Inc. +5,544%, Apple Inc. +2,394%, and Alphabet Inc. 880%, among many other fruitful investments since Sidoxia’s inception in 2008.
Lessons Learned Over 30 Years
I’ve been doing this thing called investing for about three decades now and I’ve learned a few things over the years, most prominently that investing is not rocket science. Warren Buffett has correctly described investing as similar to dieting. In other words, both are easy to understand but difficult to execute because they require discipline.
If you want your investments to succeed, consider some of these investing nuggets:
- Invest for the Long-Run: Markets move in all directions, but if you can avoid myopia and short-termism, you will be much better positioned for investment success.
- Avoid Investment Fads: Invest where you get the most bang for your buck – stick to sound investments selling at reasonable prices. Stay away from expensive, speculative, frothy areas, or at least keep that exposure of your portfolio to a minimum.
- Turn off the TV and Silence your Phone: Regardless of what you hear, the world is not ending. COVID, inflation, and Federal Reserve monetary policies may dominate the headlines du jour but this is nothing new. The stock market has increased more than 7-fold in value since the 2009 stock market lows, even in the face of many frightening news stories (see Ed Yardeni’s list of panic attacks since 2009).
- Understand Stock Prices Do Go Down: We have been spoiled in recent years with above-average returns, but that does not mean you need to panic when prices do decline or that you need to try to time the market. There can be years when stock prices do not appreciate (reference the post-2000 and post-2008 periods), however, those who wisely rebalanced and dollar-cost-averaged positions in their portfolio were handsomely rewarded for their discipline and patience over the long-run.
- Volatility Can Be a Good Thing: Periods of volatility offer you the ability to rebalance your portfolio and take advantage of opportunities that disruption creates.
- Optimize Your Investments Based on Your Time Horizon and Risk Tolerance: At Sidoxia, we customize investment portfolios to meet our clients’ unique circumstances and risk appetite. It’s important to have your investments diversified across a broad array of asset classes in a low-cost, tax efficient manner.
- Get Assistance: If you don’t have the time, discipline, or interest to manage your investments, find an experienced professional who is a fiduciary (i.e., someone who legally places your interests first) and implements time-tested investment strategies. Sidoxia should be able to assist you in identifying an appropriate investment manager. 😉
What Now for 2022?
As I made clear earlier, at Sidoxia, we do not attempt to predict the directions of markets, but rather we look to opportunistically take advantage of many different dynamic areas that we believe provide the best risk-adjusted return potential for our clients.
However, although we freely admit we are not Nostradamus, we do closely follow a wide spectrum of areas in financial markets to best position our investments. Here are some thoughts on some hot-button issues that are top-of-mind as we enter 2022.
Stocks Remain Attractive: Stocks are still attractively priced broadly considering where interest rates stand today. Most people don’t realize that stock prices are actually cheaper today than they were a year ago because earnings will be up roughly +50% in 2021 (see chart below) and stock prices are only up +27%. Stated differently, the price of the market as measured by the forward price-earnings ratio (P/E) has declined, even though the stock market has melted up. Under a different lens, stocks are also attractively priced if you consider bonds are generally yielding 1-2% versus the 4-5% on stocks as measured by the earnings yield of the S&P 500 index (corporate earnings/price of the index), which can be calculated as an inverse P/E ratio. Regardless, if stock prices do indeed decline this year, while bond yields remain in the same general ballpark, then stocks will only become even more attractive.
Federal Reserve Tightening Doesn’t Mean Game Over for Stocks: We have seen this movie before (see chart below). What happened the last time quantitative easing (QE) stopped and the Fed raised its Federal Funds interest rate target? Ten-year interest rate yields went down, and stock prices went up – not necessarily immediately, but ultimately investors were compensated for not knee-jerk selling.
Inflation Does Not Appear to Be Spiraling Out of Control: Just take a look at the paltry yield of the 10-year Treasury Note, currently at 1.51%. And please do not just consider the low interest rates here in the U.S., but also internationally in markets like Germany with negative 10-year interest rates (-0.18%) or near-0% interest rates in Japan (0.07%). If inflation were indeed considered a systemic risk, global yields in large developed markets would not be hovering around 0%. Furthermore, COVID-related supply chain bottlenecks appear to be abating. As you can see from the chart below, the average business delivery times have been coming down in recent months as supply disruptions subside – an improving trend for overall prices.
The Global Pandemic Deserves Watching: There are plenty of reasons to remain concerned, however science and natural immunity may have brought us closer to neutralizing this health crisis. A worldwide focus on creating vaccines, antiviral drugs, monoclonal antibodies, and other COVID treatments has allowed the global health community to more effectively treat those infected with COVID, while simultaneously lowering the number of related hospitalizations and deaths. There is even hope for areas that have lower vaccination rates than the U.S., for example India (see chart below), which you can see has experienced a dramatic fall-off in COVID cases in part because of the large number of previous infections and subsequent natural immunity created.
There are always talking heads and so-call pundits predicting Armageddon in the stock market, but as you can see from the facts presented, record highs in the stock market aren’t currently painting this picture for 2022. Profits have been gargantuan, interest rates remain near generational lows, valuations remain reasonable, and there are reasons to be optimistic regarding the COVID pandemic. Investing is never easy, but it is not rocket science, if you remain disciplined and patient. Follow this advice and your portfolio should benefit in 2022 and beyond.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
This article is an excerpt from a previously released Sidoxia Capital Management complimentary newsletter (January 3, 2022). Subscribe on the right side of the page for the complete text.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions in PFE and certain exchange traded funds (ETFs), but at the time of publishing had no direct position in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.
Sleeping on Expensive Financial Pillows
Everybody loves a good night’s sleep and that requires a comfortable pillow. Unfortunately, many investors are overpaying for their pillows in the form of overpriced, interest-rate sensitive bonds. If you aren’t careful, your retirement dreams could turn into financial nightmares. More specifically, if the composition of your investment portfolio is overly skewed towards bonds, you stand to lose substantial amounts of money if/when interest rates and inflation persistently increase.
In the short-run, pillows manufactured in the form of bonds can feel cozy in a world of low volatility and generationally-low interest rates. However, investors should also ask themselves, how much longer can this unprecedented 40-year bull market in bonds last? Interest rates approached 20% in 1980 and they stand closer to 1% today (1.24% to be more precise). What may now seem like a cozy bond portfolio may eventually lead to unnerving insomnia.
We already have negative interest rates in numerous countries around the world and inflation (a rise in general price levels) is running hot at about 5% annually. What this means is investing in a 10-Year Treasury Note yielding 1.24% effectively means you are losing almost -4% per year in purchasing power, if inflation remains at 5% (see chart below). There are numerous investing strategies used to fight inflation, but historically stocks’ ability to raise prices through pricing power has been a useful vehicle to fend off the melting of money’s value.
Despite short-term increases in inflation, getting a good night sleep hasn’t been an issue in 2021 as it relates to the stock market. For the month, the S&P 500 stock index was up +2.3% to a new record, and for the year it has surged +17%. The story for the Dow Jones Industrial Average looks similar – for the month rising +1.3% and year-to-date to +14%.
Thankfully, there haven’t been any night terrors yet either in the bond market. Nevertheless, short-term results have been more of a mixed bag. For the month, the iShares Aggregate Bond Market ETF (Exchange Traded Fund – AGG) rose +1.0% and for 2021 slipped -2%.
In spite of stocks being a great place to invest over the last decade or so, solely investing in stocks is not always rainbows and unicorns. The price you pay for longer-term stock outperformance is shorter-term volatility, which can be disruptive to your sleeping patterns. Case in point, the -35% drop in the S&P 500 index at the start of the COVID-19 global pandemic when anxiety and volatility were at extreme levels.
Despite the market continuously hitting new highs, investors are not completely out of the woods yet as spiking Delta variant cases threaten the trajectory of the current economic recovery.
Although stocks can feel like stiff, uncomfortable pillows in the short-term, in the long-run, historically those stiff, uncomfortable stocks become vastly more comfortable than bonds. Over the last five years, stock prices have dramatically outperformed bonds by +99% (S&P vs. AGG).
Determining your asset allocation is a monumental decision that should be driven by various factors, including risk tolerance, time horizon, income needs, taxes, and other factors such as your personal objectives. Therefore, even if you subscribe to the premise that stocks outperform in the long run, that doesn’t necessarily mean all retirees should load up solely on a diet of stocks.
Retirees who need income or other risk-averse investors generally can’t afford to lose substantial amounts of their net worth, if stocks tank significantly during a recession. Not only could an all-stock portfolio not generate adequate income, an equity-heavy portfolio could also could lead to emotional sales after market declines, thereby locking in permanent losses at low levels. After these potential losses, there may not be enough time for stock losses to be recouped by retirees. If possible, most investors approaching retirement do not want to be forced to work as a greeter at Wal-Mart to compensate for stock losses.
Everybody’s financial situation is different, and everyone has varying risk tolerances and unique needs. As such, working with an independent, experienced, and professional advisor like Sidoxia Capital Management (www.Sidoxia.com) can assist you with structuring a proper asset allocation, so your investment pillows can help you achieve a good night sleep.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
This article is an excerpt from a previously released Sidoxia Capital Management complimentary newsletter (August 1, 2021). Subscribe on the right side of the page for the complete text.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions in certain exchange traded funds (ETFs), but at the time of publishing had no direct position in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.
Return to Rationality?
As the worst pandemic in more than a generation is winding down in the U.S., people are readjusting their personal lives and investing worlds as they transition from ridiculousness to rationality. After many months of non-stop lockdowns, social distancing, hand-sanitizers, mask-wearing, and vaccines, Americans feel like caged tigers ready to roam back into the wild. An incredible amount of pent-up demand is just now being unleashed not only by consumers, but also by businesses and the economy overall. This reality was also felt in the stock market as the Dow Jones Industrial Average powered ahead another 654 points last month (+1.9%) to a new record level (34,529) and the S&P 500 also closed at a new monthly high (+0.6% to 4,204). For the year, the bull market remains intact with the Dow gaining almost 4,000 points (+12.8%), while the S&P 500 has also registered a respectable +11.9% return.
The story was different last year. The economy and stock market temporarily fell off a cliff and came to a grinding halt in the first quarter of 2020. However, with broad distribution of the vaccines and antibodies gained by the previously infected, herd immunity has effectively been reached. As a result, the U.S. COVID-19 pandemic has essentially come to an end for now and stock prices have continued their upward surge since last March.
Insanity to Sanity?
With the help of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates at near-0% levels, coupled with trillions of dollars in stimulus and proposed infrastructure spending, corporate profits have been racing ahead. All this free money has pushed speculation into areas such as cryptocurrencies (i.e., Bitcoin, Dogecoin, Ethereum), SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisition Companies), Reddit meme stocks (GameStop Corp, AMC Entertainment), and highly valued, money-losing companies (e.g., Spotify, Uber, Snowflake, Palantir Technologies, Lyft, Peloton, and others). The good news, at least in the short-term, is that some of these areas of insanity have gone from stratospheric levels to just nosebleed heights. Take for example, Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation Fund (ARKK) that invests in pricey stocks averaging a 91x price-earnings ratio, which exceeds 4x’s the valuation of the average S&P 500 stock. The ARK exchange traded fund that touts investments in buzzword technologies like artificial intelligence, machine learning, and cryptocurrencies rocketed +149% last year in the middle of a pandemic, but is down -10.0% this year. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust fund (GBTC) that skyrocketed +291% in 2020 has fallen -5.6% in 2021 and -48.1% from its peak. What’s more, after climbing by more than +50% in less than four months, the Defiance NextGen SPAC fund (SPAK) has declined by -28.9% from its apex just a few months ago in February. You can see the dramatic 2021 underperformance in these areas in the chart below.
Inflation Rearing its Ugly Head?
The economic resurgence, weaker value of the U.S. dollar, and rising stock prices have pushed up inflation in commodities such as corn, gasoline, lumber, automobiles, housing, and a whole host of other goods (see chart below). Whether this phenomenon is “transitory” in nature, as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell likes to describe this trend, or if this is the beginning of a longer phase of continued rising prices, the answer will be determined in the coming months. It’s clear the Federal Reserve has its hands full as it attempts to keep a lid on inflation and interest rates. The Fed’s success, or lack thereof, will have significant ramifications for all financial markets, and also have meaningful consequences for retirees looking to survive on fixed income budgets.
As we have worked our way through this pandemic, all Americans and investors look to change their routines from an environment of irrationality to rationality, and insanity to sanity. Although the bull market remains alive and well in the stock market, inflation, interest rates, and speculative areas like cryptocurrencies, SPACs, meme-stocks, and nosebleed-priced stocks remain areas of caution. Stick to a disciplined and diversified investment approach that incorporates valuation into the process or contact an experienced advisor like Sidoxia Capital Management to assist you through these volatile times.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
This article is an excerpt from a previously released Sidoxia Capital Management complimentary newsletter (June 1, 2021). Subscribe on the right side of the page for the complete text.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions in certain exchange traded funds (ETFs), but at the time of publishing had no direct position in GME, AMC, SPOT, UBER, SNOW, PLTR, LYFT, PTON, GBTC, SPAK, ARKK or any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.
April Flowers Have Investors Cheering Wow-sers!
Normally April showers bring May flowers, but last month the spring weather was dominated by sunshine that caused stock prices to blossom to new, all-time record highs across all major indexes. More specifically, the S&P 500 jumped +5.2% last month, the NASDAQ catapulted +5.4%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose +2.7%. For the year, the Dow and S&P 500 index both up double-digit percentages (11%), while the NASDAQ is up a few percentage points less than that (8%).
What has led to such a bright and beaming outlook by investors? For starters, economic optimism has gained momentum as the global coronavirus pandemic appears to be improving after approximately 16 months. Not only are COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations rates declining, but COVID-19 related deaths are dropping as well. A large portion of the progress can be attributed to the 246 million vaccine doses administered so far in the United States.
Blossoming Economy
As a result of the improving COVID-19 health climate, economic activity, as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), expanded by a healthy +6.4% rate during the first quarter. Economists are forecasting second quarter growth to accelerate to an even more brilliant rate of +10%.
As the economy further re-opens and pent-up consumer demand is unleashed, activity is sprouting up in areas like airlines, hotels, restaurants, bars, movie theaters and gyms. An example of consumer demand climbing can be seen in the volume of passenger traffic in U.S. airports, which has increased substantially from the lows a year ago, as shown below in the TSA (Transportation Security Administration) data.
A germinating economy also means a healthier employment market and more jobs. The chart below shows the dramatic decline in the number of jobless receiving benefits and pandemic unemployment assistance.
Fed Fertilizer & Congressional Candy
Monetary and fiscal stimulus are creating fertile ground for the surge in growth as well. The Federal Reserve has been clear in their support for the economy by effectively maintaining its key interest rate target at 0%, while also maintaining its monthly bond buying program at $120 billion – designed to sustain low interest rates for the benefit of consumers and businesses.
From a fiscal perspective, Congress is serving up some sweet candy by doling out free money to Americans. So far, roughly $4 trillion of COVID-19 related stimulus and relief have passed Congress (see also Consumer Confidence Flies), and now President Biden is proposing roughly an additional $4 trillion of stimulus in the form of a $2 trillion jobs and infrastructure plan and a $1.8 trillion American Families Plan.
Candy and Spinach
While Congress is serving up trillions in candy, eventually, Americans are going to have to eat some less appetizing spinach in the form of higher taxes. Generally speaking, nobody likes higher taxes, so the question becomes, how does the government raise the most revenue (taxes) without upsetting a large number of voters? As 17th century French statesman Jean-Baptiste Colbert proclaimed, “The art of taxation consists in so plucking the goose as to get the most feathers with the least hissing.”
President Biden has stated he will only increase income taxes on people earning more than $400,000 annually and increase capital gains taxes for those earning more than $1,000,000 per year. According to CNBC, those earning more than $400,000 only represents 1.8% of total taxpayers.
Bitter tasting spinach for Americans may also come in the form of higher inflation (i.e., a general rise in a basket of goods and services), which silently eats away at everyone’s purchasing power, especially those retirees surviving on a fixed income. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell sees any increase in inflation as transitory, but if prices keep rising, the Federal Reserve will be forced to increase interest rates. Such a reversal in rates could choke off economic growth and potentially force the economy into a recession.
If you strip out volatile energy prices, the good news is that underlying inflation has not spiraled higher out of control, as you can see from the chart below.
In addition to the concerns of potential higher taxes, inflation, and rising interest rate policies from the Federal Reserve, for many months I have written about my apprehension about the speculation in SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisition Companies) and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. There are logical explanations to invest selectively into SPACs and purchase Bitcoin as a non-correlated asset for diversification purposes and a hedge against the dollar. But unfortunately, if history repeats itself, speculators will eventually end up in a pool of tears.
While there are certainly some storm clouds on the horizon (e.g., taxes, inflation, rising interest rates, speculative trading), April bloomed a lot of flowers, and the near-term forecast remains very sunny as the economy emerges from a global pandemic. As long as the government continues to provide candy to millions of Americans; the Federal Reserve remains accommodative in its policies; and the surge in pent-up demand persists to drive economic growth, we likely have some more time before we are forced to eat our spinach.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
This article is an excerpt from a previously released Sidoxia Capital Management complimentary newsletter (May 3, 2021). Subscribe on the right side of the page for the complete text.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions in certain exchange traded funds (ETFs), but at the time of publishing had no direct position in GME or any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.
Consumer Confidence Flies as Stock Market Hits New Highs
As the economy starts reopening from a global pandemic that is improving, consumers and businesses are beginning to see a light at the end of the tunnel. The surge in the recently reported Consumer Confidence figures to a new one-year high (see chart below) is evidence the recovery is well on its way. A stock market reaching new record highs is further evidence of the reopening recovery. More specifically, the Dow Jones Industrial Average catapulted 2,094 points higher (+6.2%) for the month to 32,981 and the S&P 500 index soared +4.2%. A rise in interest rate yields on the 10-Year Treasury Note to 1.7% from 1.4% last month placed pressure on technology growth stocks, which led to a more modest gain of +0.4% in the tech-heavy NASDAQ index during March.
Comeback from COVID
With a combination of 150 million vaccine doses administered and 30 million cumulative COVID cases, the U.S. population has creeped closer toward herd immunity protection against the virus and pushed down hospitalizations dramatically (see chart below).
Also contributing to investor optimism have been the rising values of investments and real estate assets thanks to an improving economy and COVID case count. As you can see from the chart below, the net worth of American households has more than doubled from the 2008-2009 financial crisis to approximately $130 trillion dollars, which in turn has allowed consumers to responsibly control and manage their personal debt. Unfortunately, the U.S. government hasn’t been as successful in keeping debt levels in check.
Spending and Paying for Infrastructure Growth
Besides focusing on positive COVID trends, investors have also centered their attention on the passage of a $1.9 trillion stimulus bill last month and a new proposed $2.3 trillion infrastructure bill that President Biden unveiled details on yesterday. At the heart of the multi-trillion dollar spending are the following components (see also graphic below):
- $621 billion modernize transportation infrastructure
- $400 billion to assist the aging and disabled
- $300 billion to boost the manufacturing industry
- $213 billion to build and retrofit affordable housing
- $100 billion to expand broadband access
With over $28 trillion in government debt, how will all this spending be funded? According to The Fiscal Times, there are four main tax categories to help in the funding:
Corporate Taxes: Raising the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21% is expected to raise $730 billion over 10 years
Foreign Corporate Subsidiary Tax: A new global minimum tax on foreign subsidiaries of American corporations is estimated to raise $550 billion
Capital Gains Tax on Wealthy: Increasing income tax rates on capital gains for wealthy individuals is forecasted to raise $370 billion
Income Tax on Wealthy: Lifting the top individual tax rate back to 39.6% for households earning more than $400,000 per year is seen to bring in $110 billion
Besides the economy being supported by government spending, growth and appreciation in the housing market are contributing to GDP growth. The recently released housing data shows housing prices accelerating significantly above the peak levels last seen before the last financial crisis (see chart below).
Although the economy appears to be on solid footing and stock prices have marched higher to new record levels, there are still plenty of potential factors that could derail the current bull market advance. For starters, increased debt and deficit spending could lead to rising inflation and higher interest rates, which could potentially choke off economic growth. Bad things can always happen when large financial institutions take on too much leverage (i.e., debt) and speculate too much (see also Long-Term Capital Management: When Genius Failed). The lesson from the latest, crazy blow-up (Archegos Capital Management) reminds us of how individual financial companies can cause billions in losses and cause ripple-through effects to the whole financial system. And if that’s not enough to worry about, you have rampant speculation in SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisition Companies), Reddit meme stocks (e.g., GameStop Corp. – GME), cryptocurrencies, and NFTs (Non-Fungible Tokens).
Successful investing requires a mixture of art and science – not everything is clear and you can always find reasons to be concerned. At Sidoxia Capital Management, we continue to find attractive opportunities as we strive to navigate through areas of excess speculation. At the end of the day, we remain disciplined in following our fundamental strategy and process that integrates the four key legs of our financial stool: corporate profits, interest rates, valuations, and sentiment (see also Don’t Be a Fool, Follow the Stool). As long as the balance of these factors still signal strength, we will remain confident in our outlook just like consumers and investors are currently.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
This article is an excerpt from a previously released Sidoxia Capital Management complimentary newsletter (April 1, 2021). Subscribe on the right side of the page for the complete text.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions in certain exchange traded funds (ETFs), but at the time of publishing had no direct position in GME or any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.
Investors Ponder Stimulus Size as Rates Rise
Stock prices rose again last month in part based on passage optimism of a government stimulus package (currently proposed at $1.9 trillion). But the rise happened before stock prices took a breather during the last couple of weeks, especially in hot growth sectors like the technology-heavy QQQ exchange traded fund, which fell modestly by -0.1% in February. As some blistering areas cooled off, investors decided to shift more dollars into the value segment of the stock market (e.g., the Russell 1000 Value index soared +6% last month). Over the same period, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average indexes climbed +2.6% and +3.2%, respectively.
What was the trigger for the late-month sell-off? Many so-called pundits point to a short-term rise in interest rates. While investor anxiety heightened significantly at the end of the month, the S&P 500 dropped a mere -3.5% from all-time record highs after a slingshot jump of +73.9% from the March 2020 lows.
Do Rising Interest Rates = Stock Price Declines?
Conventional wisdom dictates that as interest rates rise, stock prices must fall because higher rates are expected to pump the breaks on economic activity and higher yielding fixed income investments will serve as better alternatives to investing in stocks. Untrue. There are periods of time when stock prices move higher even though interest rates also move higher
Take 2013 for example – the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note climbed from +1.8% to 3.0%, while the S&P 500 index catapulted +29.6% higher (see charts below).
Similarly to now, during 1994 we were still in a multi-decade, down-trending interest rate environment. However, from the beginning of 1994 to the middle of 1995 the Federal Reserve hiked the Federal Funds interest rate target from 3% to 6% (and the 10-Year Treasury yield temporarily climbed from about 6% to 8%), yet stock prices still managed to ascend +17% over that 18-month period. The point being, although rising interest rates are generally bad for asset price appreciation, there are periods of time when stock prices can move higher in synchronization with interest rates.
What’s the Fuss about Stimulus?
One of the factors keeping the stock market afloat near record highs is the prospect of the federal government passing a COVID stimulus package to keep the economic recovery continuing. Even though there is a new administration in the White House, Democrats hold a very narrow majority of seats in Congress, leaving a razor thin margin to pass legislation. This means President Biden needs to keep moderate Democrats like Joe Manchin in check, and/or recruit some Republicans to jump on board to pass his $1.9 trillion COVID stimulus plan. If the bill is passed as proposed, “The relief plan would enhance and extend jobless benefits, provide $350 billion to state and local governments, send $1,400 to many Americans and fund vaccine distribution, among other measures,” according to the Wall Street Journal.
Valuable Vaccines
Fresh off the press, we just received additional good news on the COVID vaccine front. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved the third vaccine for COVID-19 by Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). This J&J treatment is also the first single-dose vaccine to be distributed, unlike the other two vaccines manufactured by Pfizer Inc. (PFE) and Moderna Inc. (MRNA), which both require two shots. Johnson & Johnson expects to ship four million doses immediately and 20 million doses by the end of March.
So far, over 50 million doses of the COVID vaccines have been administered, and the White House believes they can go from currently about 1.5 million injections per day to approximately 4 million people per day by the end of March. The combination of the vaccines, mitigation behavior, and a slow march towards herd immunity have resulted in encouraging COVID trends, as you can see from the chart below. However, the bad news is new COVID cases, hospitalizations, and deaths still remain above peak levels experienced last spring and summer.
Revived Recovery
Thanks to the improving COVID trends, a continued economic recovery driven by reopenings, along with fiscal and monetary stimulus, business profits and revenues have effectively recovered all of the 2020 pandemic losses within a year (see chart below).
But with elevated stock prices have come elevated speculation, which we have seen bubble up in various forms. With the rising tide of new investors flooding onto new trading platforms like Robinhood, millions of individuals are placing speculative bets in areas like Bitcoin; new SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisition Companies); overpriced, money-losing cloud software companies; and social media recommended stocks found on Reddit’s WallStreetBets like GameStop (GME), which was up +150% alone last week. At Sidoxia Capital Management, we don’t spend a lot of time chasing the latest fad or stock market darling. Nevertheless, as long-term investors, we continue to find attractively valued investment opportunities that align with our clients’ objectives and constraints.
Overall, the outlook for the end of this pandemic looks promising as multiple COVID vaccines get administered, and the economic recovery gains steam with the help of reopenings and stimulus. If rising interest rates and potential inflation accelerate, these factors could slow the pace of the recovery and limit future stock market returns. However, if you follow a systematic, disciplined, long-term investment plan, like we implement at Sidoxia, you will be in a great position to prosper financially over the long-run.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
This article is an excerpt from a previously released Sidoxia Capital Management complimentary newsletter (March 1, 2021). Subscribe on the right side of the page for the complete text.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions in MRNA, PFE, and certain exchange traded funds (ETFs), but at the time of publishing had no direct position in GME, JNJ, or any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.
Election End + Vaccine Victory = Dow 30,000
There are many variables that affect the direction of the stock market, but there were two factors that pushed the stock market to a record high of 30,000 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The mathematical equation solved last month was the following: (Election End + Positive Vaccine Data) = Dow 30,000.
Election Clouds of Uncertainty Lifted
Former Vice President Joe Biden secured 81.1 million popular votes and 302 electoral votes, while incumbent President Donald Trump earned 73.9 million popular votes and 232 electoral votes. President Trump has filed numerous lawsuits in various states challenging the validity of the election results and he has claimed voter fraud in numerous states. However, if the Electoral College certifies the results on December 14th, reversing the election outcome by President Trump will become even more challenging. With President Trump getting 47% of the total versus 51% for President-elect Biden, the country largely remains divided, but investors have gained significant confidence now that the clouds of election uncertainty have lifted.
Vaccine Optimism
Investor optimism was further buoyed by 95%-effective vaccine data released by pharmaceutical companies, Pfizer, Inc. (PFE), BioNTech (BNTX), and Moderna Inc. (MRNA), which helped the stock market surge last month to an all-time record high of 30,000 in the Dow Jones Industrial average (see chart below) before slightly dipping at the end of the month to 29,638 . More specifically, the Dow soared +12% (3,137 points) for the month; the S&P 500 index 11%, and the NASDAQ +12%. For the year, the Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ have climbed +4%, +12%, and +36%, respectively.
Rotating Growth for Value and Large for Small
Given a new president variable with President-elect Biden, stock market investors have reassessed which economic factors and new legislative policies will affect future stock market returns. As I have been discussing with Sidoxia Capital Management clients and Investing Caffeine readers for years, the level of outperformance of “Growth” stocks over “Value” stocks, and “Large-cap” stocks over “Small-cap” stocks has been staggering. If you consider the Russell 1000 Growth index (IWF) has outperformed the Russell 1000 Value index (IWD) by 102% (120% vs. 18%, respectively) since 2016, and the S&P 100 index (Large-cap) outpaced the Russell 2000 (Small-cap) by 33% (67% vs. 34%), you can appreciate the benefit investors have enjoyed by investing with the Large-cap Growth formula in the stock market. But as I have previously pointed out, this level of outperformance is not sustainable forever, historically. Last month, we saw this gap narrow as Small-cap stocks advanced +18% (IWM – Russell 2000) and Value stocks +13% (Russell 1000 Value). Embedded within the Value segment, the energy sector (XLE) skyrocketed +28% for the month and financials (XLF) by +17%.
What Now? Politics Focus on Georgia
Another significant contributing factor to the recent rally has been the election gridlock outcome in Congress. Leading up to the elections, political polls incorrectly predicted a “Blue Wave” of Democratic victories in the House of Representatives and Senate. Under that scenario, Democrats would have had a blank check mandate to push a broad liberal agenda across America. That did not happen. Republicans actually gained more seats than Democrats in the House, and Republicans only lost one seat in the Senate.
All eyes are now on the Georgia Senate runoff election in January. As things stand currently, we effectively have a stalemate in Congress, meaning Democrats will have to fight tooth and nail to pass any new legislation and/or institute higher taxes. If both Democrat candidates win in the Georgia runoff, President-elect Biden and the Democrats will have a narrow majority in Congress, which could lead to more progressive measures, including tax hikes on the wealthy.
Economic Rebound Intact
Despite the uptick in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations, the economic rebound keeps moving forward. In fact, recent Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2020 are expected to exceed an average of +6%. As you can see in the chart below, corporate profits have bounced back to record high and remain relatively high to the slower recovery in GDP.
The economic resurgence experienced has not been limited to the United States. The global expansion, especially in China, has shown up in the upturn of World Trade Volume (see chart below).
Between the Dow hitting 30,000, the millions of votes counted in the elections, and the vaccine effectiveness rates, there have been many numbers to contemplate last month. Suffice it to say, however, the mathematics of these figures show that investors are using this formula to earn all-time record results in the stock market.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
This article is an excerpt from a previously released Sidoxia Capital Management complimentary newsletter (December 1, 2020). Subscribe on the right side of the page for the complete text.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions in certain exchange traded funds (ETFS), but at the time of publishing had no direct position in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.
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