Posts filed under ‘Education’
Another Month, Another Record
The S&P 500 eclipsed the 2,900 level and the NASDAQ jumped over 8,000 this month – both all-new record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial average also temporarily catapulted above 26,000 in August, but remains 2% shy of the January 2018 record highs. For the year, here are what the gains look like thus far:
- S&P 500: +5.3% (2,902)
- NASDAQ: +17.5% (8,110)
- Dow Jones Industrial: +5.0% (25,965)
For months, and even years, I have written how investors have underestimated the strength of this bull market, which has been driven by an incredible earnings growth, low interest rates, reasonable valuations, and a skeptical mass market of investors. As I pointed out in the article, Why the Masses Missed the 10-Year Bull Market, stock ownership has gone down during this massive quadrupling in the bull market. And many investors have missed the fruits of the bull market due to an over-focus on uncertain politics and scary headlines.
Nothing lasts forever, however, so another correction will likely be in the cards, just as we experienced this February when the S&P 500 index temporarily fell -18% from the January peak. But as I have highlighted previously, attempting to forecast or predict a correction is a Fool’s Errand. At Sidoxia we implement a disciplined, systematic process to identify attractive investments through our proprietary S.H.G.R. model (see also Holy Grail) and the four legs of our macroeconomic framework (earnings, interest rates, valuation, and investor sentiment – see Follow the Stool). With stock prices bouncing around near record highs, it is surprising to some that anxiety still remains elevated, primarily due to polarizing politics and an unfounded fear of an imminent recession.
Despite all the hand wringing going on over political headlines, the fact remains the economic tailwinds have “trumped” any political concerns. After a strong Q2 GDP reading of +4.2%, according to numerous economists, Q3 is tracking for another healthy +3% gain. As the Leading & Coincident Indicator chart shows below, there currently is no sign of an imminent recession.
And jobs remain plentiful in part because of Small Business Optimism (see chart below). It’s common knowledge that small businesses generate the vast majority of new jobs, so these optimism levels hovering near 35-year highs augur well for future hiring, job growth, and investment.
The real economy, as measured by the shipment of goods, is trucking along as well (see the truck tonnage chart below).
Source: Scott Grannis
While all the positives above have been highlighted already, in the forefront has been an endless string of doomsday forecasts. Scott Grannis captured this sentiment in a six-year chart created by TradeNavigator.com (click here).
As we enter the tenth year of this bull stock market, politics remain polarizing and skepticism reigns supreme. However, until the storm clouds come rolling in, the economy keeps expanding and prices keep moving higher. If the trend continues, as has been the case in recent years, next month’s title could be the same, “Another Month, Another Record.”
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
This article is an excerpt from a previously released Sidoxia Capital Management complimentary newsletter (September 4, 2018). Subscribe on the right side of the page for the complete text.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions in certain exchange traded funds (ETFs), but at the time of publishing had no direct position in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.
Arm Wrestling the Economy & Tariffs
Financial markets have been battling back and forth like a championship arm-wrestling match as economic and political forces continue to collide. Despite these clashing dynamics, capitalism won the arm wrestling match this month as investors saw the winning results of the Dow Jones Industrial Average adding +4.7% and the S&P 500 index advancing +3.6%.
Fueling the strength this month was U.S. economic activity, which registered robust 2nd quarter growth of +4.1% – the highest rate of growth achieved in four years (see below).
The job market is on fire too with U.S. jobless claims hitting their lowest level in 48 years (see chart below). This chart shows the lowest number of people in a generation are waiting in line to collect unemployment checks.
Source: Dr. Ed’s Blog
If that isn’t enough, so far, the record corporate profits being reported for Q2 are up a jaw-dropping +23.5% from a year ago. What can possibly be wrong?
Excess Supply of Concern
While the economic backdrop is largely positive, there is never a shortage of things to worry about – even during decade-long bull market of appreciation. More specifically, investors have witnessed the S&P 500 index more than quadruple from a March 2009 low of 666 to 2,816 today (+322%). Despite the massive gains achieved over the last decade, there have been plenty of volatility and geopolitics to worry about. Have you already forgotten about the Flash Crash, Arab Spring, Occupy Wall Street, Government Shutdowns, Sequestration, Taper Tantrum, Ebola, Iranian nuclear threat, plunging oil prices, skyrocketing oil prices, Brexit, China scares, Elections, and now tariffs, trade, and the Federal Reserve monetary policy?
Today, tariffs, trade, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and inflation are top-of-mind investor concerns, but history insures there will be new issues to worry about tomorrow. Ever since the bull market began a decade ago, there have been numerous perma-bears incorrectly calling for a deathly market collapse, and I have written a substantial amount about these prognosticators’ foggy crystal balls (see Emperor Schiff Has No Clothes [2009] & Clashing Views with Dr. Roubin [2009]. While these doomsdayers get a lot less attention today, similar bears like John Hussman, who like a broken record, has erroneously called for a market crash every year for the last seven years (click chart link).
Although many investment accounts are up over the last 10 years, many people quickly forget it has not been all rainbows and unicorns. While the stock market has more than quadrupled in value since 2009, we have lived through about a dozen alarming corrections, including the worrisome -12% pullback we experienced in February. If we encounter another -5 -10% correction this year, this is perfectly healthy, normal, and should not be surprising. More often than not, these temporary drops provide opportunistic openings to scoop up valued bargains.
Longtime readers and followers of Sidoxia’s investment philosophy and Investing Caffeine understand the majority of these economic predictions and political headlines are useless noise. Social media, addiction to smart phones, and the 24/7 news cycle create imaginary, scary mountains out of harmless molehills. As I have preached for years, the stock market does not care about politics and opinions – the stock market cares about 1) corporate profits (at record levels) – see chart below; 2) interest rates (rising, but still near historically low levels); 3) the price of the stock market/valuation (which is getting cheaper as profits soar from tax cuts); and 4) sentiment (a favorable contrarian indicator until euphoria kicks in).
Source: Dr. Ed’s Blog
Famed investor manager, Peter Lynch, who earned +29% annually from 1977-1990 also urged investors to ignore attempts of predicting the direction of the economy. Lynch stated, “I’ve always said if you spend 13 minutes a year on economics, you’ve wasted 10 minutes.”
I pay more attention to successful long-term investors, like Warren Buffett (the greatest investor of all-time), who remains optimistic about the stock market. As I’ve noted before, although we remain constructive on the markets over the intermediate to long-term periods, nobody has been able to consistently prophesize about the short-term direction of financial markets.
At Sidoxia, rather than hopelessly try to predict every twist and turn in the market, or react to every meaningless molehill, we objectively analyze the available data without getting emotional, and then take advantage of the opportunities presented to us in the marketplace. Certain asset classes, stocks, and bonds, will constantly move in and out of favor, which allows us to continually find new opportunities. A contentious arm wrestling struggle between uncertain tariffs/rising interest rates and stimulative tax cuts/strong economy is presently transpiring. As always, we will continually monitor the evolving data, but for the time being, the economy is flexing its muscle and winning the battle.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
This article is an excerpt from a previously released Sidoxia Capital Management complimentary newsletter (August 1, 2018). Subscribe on the right side of the page for the complete text.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions in certain exchange traded funds (ETFs), but at the time of publishing had no direct position in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.
The Scary Blip
I hated it when my mom reminded me when I was a younger, but now that I’ve survived into middle-aged adulthood, I will give you the same medicine she gave me:
“I told you so.”
As I cautioned in last month’s newsletter, “It’s important for investors to remember this pace of gains cannot be sustainable forever.” I added that there were a whole bunch of scenarios for stock prices to go down or “stock prices could simply go down due to profit-taking.”
And that is exactly what we saw. From the peak achieved in late January, stock prices quickly dropped by -12% at the low in early February, with little-to-no explanation other than a vague blame-game on rising interest rates – the 2018 yield on the 10-Year Treasury Note rose from 2.4% to 2.9%. This explanation holds little water if you take into account interest rates on the 10-Year increased from roughly 1.5% to 3.0% in 2013 (“Taper Tantrum”), yet stock prices still rose +20%. The good news, at least for now, is the stock correction has been contained or mitigated. A significant chunk of the latest double-digit loss has been recovered, resulting in stock prices declining by a more manageable -3.9% for the month. Despite the monthly loss, the subsequent rebound in late February has still left investors with a gain of 1.5% for 2018. Not too shabby, especially considering this modest return comes on the heels of a heroic +19.4% gain in 2017.
As you can see at from the 22-year stock market chart below for the S&P 500, the brief but painful drop was merely a scary blip in the long-term scheme of things.
Whenever the market drops significantly over a short period of time, as it did this month, conspiracy theories usually come out of the woodwork in an attempt to explain the unexplainable. When human behavior is involved, rationalizing a true root cause can be very challenging, to say the least. It is certainly possible that technical factors contributed to the pace and scale of the recent decline, as has been the case in the past. Currently no smoking gun or fat finger has been discovered, however some pundits are arguing the popular usage of leveraged ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) has contributed to the accelerated downdraft last month. Leveraged ETFs are special, extra-volatile trading funds that will move at amplified degrees – you can think of them as speculative trading vehicles on steroids. The low-cost nature, diversification benefits, and ability for traders to speculate on market swings and sector movements have led to an explosion in ETF assets to an estimated $4.6 trillion.
Regardless of the cause for the market drop, long-term investors have experienced these types of crashes in the past. Do you remember the 2010 Flash Crash (down -17%) or the October 1987 Crash (-23% one-day drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average index)? Technology, or the lack thereof (circuit breakers), helped contribute to these past crashes. Since 1987, the networking and trading technologies have definitely become much more sophisticated, but so have the traders and their strategies.
Another risk I highlighted last month, which remains true today, is the potential for the new Federal Reserve chief, Jerome Powell, to institute a too aggressive monetary policy. During his recent testimony and answers to Congress, Powell dismissed the risks of an imminent recession. He blamed past recessions on previous Fed Chairmen who over enthusiastically increased interest rate targets too quickly. Powell’s comments should provide comfort to nervous investors. Regardless of short-term inflation fears, common sense dictates Powell will not want to crater the economy and his legacy by slamming the economic brakes via excessive rate hikes early during his Fed chief tenure.
Tax Cuts = Profit Gains
Despite the heightened volatility experienced in February, I remain fairly constructive on the equity investment outlook overall. The recently passed tax legislation (Tax Cuts and Job Act of 2017) has had an undeniably positive impact on corporate profits (see chart below of record profit forecasts – blue line). More specifically, approximately 75% of corporations (S&P 500 companies) have reported better-than-expected results for the past quarter ending December 31st. On an aggregate basis, quarterly profits have also risen an impressive +15% compared to last year. When you marry these stellar earnings results with the latest correction in stock prices, historically this combination of factors has proven to be a positive omen for investors.
Source: Dr. Ed’s Blog
Despite the rosy profit projections and recent economic strength, there is always an endless debate regarding the future direction of the economy and interest rates. This economic cycle is no different. When fundamentals are strong, stories of spiking inflation and overly aggressive interest rate hikes by the Fed rule the media airwaves. On the other hand, when fundamentals deteriorate or slow down, fears of a 2008-2009 financial crisis enter the zeitgeist. The same tug-of-war fundamental debate exists today. The stimulative impacts of tax cuts on corporate profits are undeniable, but investors remain anxious that the negative inflationary side-effects from a potential overheating economy could outweigh the positive economic momentum of a near full-employment economy gaining steam.
Rather than playing Goldilocks with your investment portfolio by trying to figure out whether the short-term stock market is too hot or too cold, you would be better served by focusing on your long-term asset allocation, and low-cost, tax-efficient investment strategy. If you don’t believe me, you should listen to the wealthiest, most successful investor of all-time, Warren Buffett (The Oracle of Omaha), who just published his annual shareholder letter. In his widely followed letter, Buffett stated, “Performance comes, performance goes. Fees never falter.” To emphasize his point, Buffett made a 10-year, $1 million bet for charity with a high-fee hedge fund manager (Protégé Partners). As part of the bet, Buffett claimed an investment in a low-fee S&P 500 index fund would outperform a selection of high-fee, hot-shot hedge fund managers. Unsurprisingly, the low-cost index fund trounced the hedge fund managers. From 2008-2017, Buffett’s index fund averaged +8.5% per year vs. +3.0% for the hedge fund managers.
During scary blips like the one experienced recently, lessons can be learned from successful, long-term billionaire investors like Warren Buffett, but lessons can also be learned from my mother. Do yourself a favor by getting your investment portfolio in order, so my mother won’t have to say, “I told you so.”
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
This article is an excerpt from a previously released Sidoxia Capital Management complimentary newsletter (March 1, 2018). Subscribe on the right side of the page for the complete text.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions in certain exchange traded funds (ETFs), but at the time of publishing had no direct position in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.
Celebrating Another Year, Another Decade for Sidoxia
This article is an excerpt from a previously released Sidoxia Capital Management complimentary newsletter (January 2, 2018). Subscribe on the right side of the page for the complete text.
Not only is New Year’s the time to celebrate the year that has just passed, but it is also the time to set new resolutions for the year to come. For financial markets, especially the stock market, 2017 was a special year of celebration. In addition to the S&P 500 index rejoicing a +19% gain, the more narrowly focused Dow Jones Industrial Average (consisting solely of 30 stocks) partied to an even more impressive +25% advance. Out of the three major stock indexes, the icing on the cake can be savored by the technology-heavy NASDAQ index, which soared +28% in 2017.
Can the mojo of this festive bull market continue into its 10th year after the financial crisis? The short answer is “yes”, but there are numerous variables that can cause the performance gusts to swirl into a headwind or a tailwind. While many Americans are glued to the topic of politics and get caught up in the continual mudslinging, followers of Sidoxia Capital Management’s writings (see also Politics & Your Money) understand there are much more important factors impacting the long-term performance of your investments. More specifically, the following four factors I track on Sidoxia’s financial dashboard (Don’t Be a Fool) have continued to act as significant tailwinds for positive stock performance:
- Corporate profits
- Interest rates
- Valuations
- Sentiment
Sidoxia’s 10-Year Anniversary
The year 2018 also happens to be a special year that marks a significant milestone in my professional career. A decade ago in late 2007, I ventured off from managing one of the largest multi-billion growth funds in the country (see How I Managed $20,000,000,000.00 by Age 32) and launched my own company, Sidoxia Capital Management in Newport Beach, California. At the time of the launch (December 2007), and subsequent to the bursting of the 2000 technology bubble, stock prices had about doubled over a five year period, starting in early 2003 (see chart).
On top of having the leading investment credentials (CFA, MBA, and CFP) and the experience of successfully managing a multi-billion fund, I also held the youthful confidence and optimism of a 30-something year-old (Trivia fact: the name Sidoxia is derived from the Greek word for “optimism”). What could possibly go wrong? How about the worst financial collapse in a generation (79 years)!
Suffice it to say, the global panic and recession that resulted in stock prices crumbling -50% (see chart below) temporarily bruised my youthful confidence and briefly punched my optimistic enthusiasm in the gut. In hindsight, what felt like a disaster at that point turned out to be a perfect time to start Sidoxia. The advantage of starting with virtually no clients meant that most of my early clients have enjoyed participating in a near quadrupling in stock prices to the near-record highs of today.
However, it wasn’t all rainbows and unicorns over Sidoxia’s first ten years (2007 – 2017). Despite the Dow advancing to 24,719 today from the 2009-low of 6,470, there were at least 11 substantial corrections (price drops) ranging from -5% to -22%. The extraordinary climb up the financial mountain included a “Flash Crash”, U.S. debt downgrade, eurozone economic crisis, Ebola scare, Brexit vote, multiple presidential elections, and China recession scares, among numerous other fear-grabbing headlines.
What Now?
As I have described on numerous occasions (see also Fool’s Errand), predicting short-term directions in the stock market is a fruitless effort. With that said, our correctly positioned positive stance over the years can be clearly documented on my blog (see InvestingCaffeine.com).
For example, 2017 was one of Sidoxia’s best years thanks in large part to our positive outlook (see Wiping Slate Clean), even though headlines were dominated by mass shootings, natural disasters, terrorist attacks, White House politics, Bitcoin/cryptocurrencies, and let’s not forget the sexual harassment revelations. But in going back to my previous comments, the key follow-up question becomes, “Do these headlines negatively impact the four key pillars of corporate profits, interest rates, valuations, and sentiment?” And the short answer is “No”.
On the positive side of the ledger, we have a newly minted tax legislation that dramatically loweres corporate tax rates from 35% to 21%. This move should significantly stimulate corporate profits, thereby creating extra cash for shareholder friendly actions like increased dividends and stock buybacks, not to mention more cash in corporate coffers for further acquisitions. Worth also noting, the global synchronized economic recovery continues to buoy the stellar U.S. performance. Evidence of the rising international tide lifting all global boats can be seen in the 2017 performance of various international equity markets*:
- Vietnam: +48%
- Hong Kong: +36%
- Asia (Overall): +30%
- India: +27%
- Brazil: +26%
- Europe (VGK): +23%
- Japan: +17%
Source: CNBC 12/29 & Sidoxia
What could negatively impact investment results in 2018? For starters, overly aggressive (“hawkish”) monetary policy by the Federal Reserve could potentially slam the brakes on the economy. In my view this scenario is unlikely given the rhetoric and new composition of the Federal Open Market Committee, including new chief Jerome Powell. Regardless of the historically low Federal Funds rate, interest rate policy is definitely worth following in the coming months.
Another wildcard that could slow down the 10-year bull market is a spike in the value of the U.S. dollar. As we saw in 2015-2016, a higher valued dollar makes American goods more expensive abroad, which will crimp corporate profits. Beyond these known unknowns, there are always what Donald Rumsfeld likes to call “unknown unknowns“. These unknowns can include things like terrorist attacks, currency crises, foreign bank defaults, natural disasters, etc. Short-term volatility typically ensues after these uncontrollable events, but history has proven our country’s resilience.
With the new tax legislation voted into law and shift of IRS calendar, a cohort of investors may now choose to temporarily sell stocks during January, which could briefly lower stock prices. I fully understand stock prices cannot go up forever, but as long as the previously discussed four key pillars remain positive on balance, the New Year’s celebration can continue.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions in certain exchange traded funds (ETFs), but at the time of publishing had no direct position in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.
Markets Fly as Media Noise Goes By
This article is an excerpt from a previously released Sidoxia Capital Management complimentary newsletter (November 1, 2017). Subscribe on the right side of the page for the complete text.
That loud pitched noise is not a frightening scream from Halloween, but rather what you are likely hearing is the deafening noise coming from Washington D.C or cries from concerned Americans watching senseless acts of terrorism. Thanks to the explosion of real-time social media and smart phones, coupled with the divisive politics and depressing headlines blasted across all media outlets, it is almost impossible to ignore the daily avalanche of informational irrelevance.
As I have been writing for some time, the good news for long-term investors is the financial markets continue to plug their ears and ignore poisonous politics and the spread of F.U.D. (Fear, Uncertainty & Doubt). There is a financial benefit to turning off the TV and disregarding political rants over your Facebook feed. Regardless of your political views, President Trump’s approval ratings have objectively been going down, but that really doesn’t matter…the stock market keeps going up (see chart below).
Source: Bespoke
While politicians on both sides scream at each other, investment portfolios have been screaming higher. Stock prices are more focused on the items that really matter, which include corporate profits, interest rates, valuations (price levels), and sentiment (i.e., determining whether investors are too optimistic or too pessimistic). The proof is in the pudding. Stock prices continue to set new records, as witnessed by the 7th consecutive monthly high registered by the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a level of 23,377. For the month, these results translate into an astonishing +4.3% gain. For the year, this outcome equates to an even more impressive +18.3% return. This definitely beats the near-0% rate earned on your checking account and cash stuffed under the mattress.
On the surface, 2017 has been quite remarkable, but over the last decade, stock market returns have proved to be even more extraordinary. Bolstering my contention that politics rarely matter to your long-term pocketbook, one can simply observe history. We are now approaching the 10-year anniversary of the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis – arguably the worst recession experienced in a generation. Over the last decade, despite political power in Washington bouncing around like a hot potato, stock performance has skyrocketed. From early 2009, when the Dow briefly touched a low of 6,470, the index has almost quadrupled above the 23,000 threshold (see chart below).
Source: Barchart.com
To place this spectacular period into better context, one should look at the political control dynamics across Congress and the White House over the same time frame (see the right side of the chart below). Whether you can decipher the chart or not, anyone can recognize that the colors consistently change from red (Republican) to blue (Democrat), and then from blue to red.
More specifically, since the end of 2007, the Democrats have controlled the Senate for approximately 80% of the time; the Republicans have controlled the House of Representatives for 60% of the time; and the Oval Office has switched between three different presidents (two Republicans and one Democrat). And if that is not enough diversity for you, we have also had two Federal Reserve Chairs (Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen) who controlled the world’s most powerful monetary system, and a Congressional mid-term election taking place in twelve short months. There are two morals to this story: 1) No matter how sad or excited you are about your candidate/political party, you can bank on the control eventually changing; and 2) One person alone cannot save the economy, nor can that same person singlehandedly crater the economy.
Source: Wikipedia
Waterfall of Worries
If you simply read the newspapers and watched the news on TV all day, you would be shocked to learn about the magnificent magnitude of this equity bull market. Reaching these new highs has not been a walk in the park for most investors. There certainly has been no shortage of issues to worry about, including the following:
- Special Counsel Indictments: After the abrupt firing of former FBI Director James Comey by President Donald Trump, Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein established a special counsel in May and appointed ex-FBI official and attorney Robert Mueller to investigate potential Russian meddling into the 2016 presidential elections. Just this week, Mueller indicted Paul Manafort, the former Trump campaign chairman, and Manafort’s business partner and Trump campaign volunteer, Rick Gates. The special counsel also announced the guilty plea of George Papadopoulos, a former foreign policy adviser for the Trump campaign who admitted lying to the FBI regarding interactions between Russian officials and the Trump campaign.
- Terrorist Attacks: Senseless murders of eight people in New York by a 29-year-old man from Uzbekistan, and 59 people shot dead by a 64-year-old shooter from a Las Vegas casino have created a chilling blanket of concern over American psyches.
- New Money Chief? The term of current Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen, ends this February. President Trump has fueled speculation he will announce the appointment of a new Fed chief as early as this week. Although the president has recently praised Yellen, a registered Democrat, many pundits believe Trump wants to select Jerome Powell, a Republican, who currently sits on the Federal Board of Governors.
- North Korea Rocket Launches: So far in 2017, North Korea has launched 22 missiles and tested a hydrogen bomb, while simultaneously threatening to fire missiles over the US territory of Guam and conduct an atmospheric nuclear test. Saber rattling has diminished somewhat in recent weeks since the last North Korean missile launch took place on September 15th. Nevertheless, tensions could rise at any moment, if missile launches resume.
Although media headlines are often depressing, F.U.D. will never go away – it’s only the list of worries that change over time. As noted earlier, the entrepreneurial DNA of the financial markets is focused on more important economic factors like the economy, rather than politics or terrorism. One barometer of economic health can be gauged by the chart below – Consumer Confidence is at the highest level since 2000.
Source: Bespoke
This trend is important because consumers make up approximately 70% of our nation’s economic output. Therefore, it should come as no surprise that Americans are feeling considerably better due to the following factors:
- Strong Job Market: The 4.2% unemployment rate is at the lowest level in 16 years.
- Strong Economy: Despite the dampening effect of the hurricanes, the economy is poised to register its best six-month performance of at least 3% growth in three years.
- Strong Housing Market: Just-released data shows an acceleration in national home price appreciation by +6.1% compared to a year ago.
- Low Interest Rates: Inflation has been low, credit has been cheap, and the Federal Reserve has been cautious in raising interest rates. These low rates have improved the affordability of credit, which has been stimulative for the economy.
Tax Reform Could be the Norm
The icing on the stock market cake has been the optimism surrounding the potential passage of tax reform, likely in the shape of corporate & personal tax cuts, foreign profit repatriation, and tax simplification. The process has been slow, but by passing a budget, the Republican-led Congress was able to pave the way for substantive new tax reform, something not seen since the Ronald Reagan administration, some 30-years ago. Everybody loves paying lower taxes, but victory cannot be claimed yet. Democrats and some fiscally conservative Republicans are not interested in exploding our country’s already-large deficits and debt levels. In order to achieve responsible tax legislation, Congress is looking to remove certain tax loopholes and is negotiating precious tax breaks such as mortgage interest deductibility, state/local tax deductibility, 401(k) tax incentives, and corporate interest expense deductibility, among many other possible iterations. Although corporate tax discussions have been heated, the chart below demonstrates individual income tax legislation is much more important for tax reform legislation because the government collects a much larger share of taxes from individuals vs. corporations.
Source: Calafia Beach Pundit
In spite of all the deafening political noise heard over social media and traditional media, it’s important to block out all the F.U.D. and concentrate on how to achieve your long-term financial goals. If you don’t have the time, energy, or emotional fortitude to follow a disciplined financial plan, I urge you to find an experienced investment advisor who is also a fiduciary. If you need assistance finding one, I am confident Sidoxia Capital Management can help you with this endeavor.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions in certain exchange traded funds (ETFs) and FB, but at the time of publishing had no direct position in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.
The Summer Heats Up
This article is an excerpt from a previously released Sidoxia Capital Management complimentary newsletter (August 1, 2017). Subscribe on the right side of the page for the complete text.
The temperature in the stock market heated up again this month. Like a hot day at the beach, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock index burned +542 points higher this month (+2.5%), while scorching +2,129 points ahead in 2017 (or +10.8%).
Despite these impressive gains (see 2009-2017 chart below), overall, investors remain concerned. Rather than stock participants calmly enjoying the sun, breeze, and refreshingly cool waters of the current markets, many investors have been more concerned about getting sunburned to a geopolitical crisp; overwhelmed by an unexpected economic tsunami; and/or drowned by a global central bank-induced interest rate crisis.
Stock market concerns rise, but so do stock prices.
The most recent cautionary warnings have come to the forefront by noted value investor Howard Marks, who grabbed headlines with last week’s forewarning memo, “Here They Go Again…Again.” The thoughtful, 23-page document is definitely worth reading, but like any prediction, it should be taken with a pound of salt, as I point out in my recent article Predictions – A Fool’s Errand. The reality is nobody has been able to consistently predict the future.
If you don’t believe my skepticism about crystal balls and palm readers, just listen to the author of the cautionary article himself. Like many other market soothsayers, Marks is forced to provide a mea culpa on the first page in which he admits his predictions have been wrong for the last six years. His dour but provocative position also faces another uphill battle, given that Marks’s conclusion flies in the face of value investing god, Warren Buffett, who was quoted this year as saying:
“Measured against interest rates, stocks actually are on the cheap side compared to historic valuations.”
Rather than crucify him, Marks should not be singled out for this commonly cautious view. In fact, most value investors are born with the gloom gene in their DNA, given the value mandate to discover and exploit distressed assets. This value-based endeavor has become increasingly difficult as the economy gains steam in this slow but sustainably long economic recovery. As I’ve mentioned on numerous occasions, bull markets don’t die of old age, but rather they die from excesses. So far the key components of the economy, the banking system and consumers, have yet to participate in euphoric excesses like previous economic cycles due to risk aversion caused by the last financial crisis.
Making matters worse for value investors, the value style of investing has underperformed since 2006 alongside other apocalyptic predictions from revered value peers like Seth Klarman and Ray Dalio, who have also been proved wrong over recent years.
However, worth stating, is experienced, long-term investors like Marks, Klarman, and Dalio deserve much more attention than the empty predictions spewed from the endless number of non-investing strategists and economists who I specifically reference in A Fool’s Errand.
Beach Cleanup in Washington
While beach conditions may be sunny, and stock market geeks like me continue debating future market weather conditions, media broadcasters and bloggers have been focused elsewhere – primarily the nasty political mess littered broadly across our American shores.
Lack of Congressional legislation progress relating to healthcare, tax reform, and infrastructure, coupled with a nagging investigation into potential Russian interference into U.S. elections, have caused the White House to finally lose its patience. The end result? A swift cleanup of the political hierarchy. After deciding to tidy up the White House, President Trump’s first priority was to remove Sean Spicer, the former White House Press Secretary and add the controversial Wall Street executive Anthony Scaramucci as the new White House Communications Chief. Shortly thereafter, White House Chief of Staff Reince Priebus was pushed to resign, and he was replaced by Secretary of Homeland Security, John F. Kelly. If this was not enough drama, after Scaramucci conducted a vulgar-laced tirade against Priebus in a New Yorker magazine interview, newly minted Chief of Staff Kelly felt compelled to quickly fire Scaramucci.
While the political beach party and soap opera have been entertaining to watch from the sidelines, I continue to remind observers that politics have little, if any, impact on the long-term direction of the financial markets. There have been much more important factors contributing to the nine-year bull market advance other than politics. For example, interest rates, corporate profits, valuations, and investor sentiment have been much more impactful forces behind the new record stock market highs.
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen may not wear a bikini at the beach, but nevertheless she has become quite the spectacle in Washington, as investors speculate on the future direction of interest rates and other Fed monetary policies (i.e., unwinding the $4.5 trillion Fed balance sheet). In the hopes of not exhausting your patience too heavily, let’s briefly review interest rates, so they can be placed in the proper context. Specifically, it’s worth noting the spotlighted Federal Funds Rate target is sitting at enormously depressed levels (1.00% – 1.25%), despite the fact the Fed has increased the target four times within the last two years. How low has the Fed Funds rate been historically? As you can see from the historical chart below (1970 – 2017), this key benchmark rate reached a level as high as 20.00% in the early 1980s – a far cry from today’s 1.00% – 1.25% rate.
There are two crucial points to make here. First, even at 1.25%, interest rates are at extremely low levels, and this is significantly stimulative to our economy, even after considering the scenario of future interest rate hikes. The second main point is that that Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has been exceedingly cautious about her careful, data-dependent intentions of increasing interest rates. As a matter of fact, the CME Fed Funds futures market currently indicates a 99% probability the Fed will maintain interest rates at this low level when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets in September.
Responsibly Have Fun but Use Protection
It’s imperative to remain vigilantly prudent with your investments because weather conditions will not always remain calm in the financial markets. You do not want to get burned by overheated markets or caught off guard by an unexpected economic storm. Blindly buying tech stocks exclusively without a systematic disciplined approach to valuation is a sure-fire way to lose money over the long-run. Instead, protection must be implemented across multiple vectors.
From a broader perspective, at Sidoxia we believe it’s essential to follow a low-cost, diversified, tax-efficient, strategy with a long-term time horizon. Rebalancing your portfolio as markets continue to appreciate will keep your investment portfolio balanced as financial markets gyrate. These investment basics have produced a winning formula for many investors, including some very satisfying long-term results at Sidoxia, which is quickly approaching its 10-year anniversary. You can have fun at the beach, just remember to bring sunscreen and a windbreaker, in case conditions change.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions in certain exchange traded funds (ETFs), but at the time of publishing had no direct position in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.
Stirring the Sentiment Tea Leaves Redux
Despite the Volatility Index (VIX) currently operating at the low end of historical ranges (9.36), the equity markets operate on a perpetual volatility rollercoaster. This period of relative calm has not stopped participants from searching for the Holy Grail of indicators in hopes of determining whether the next large move in the markets is upwards or downwards. Although markets may be efficient in the long-run (see Crisis Black Eye), in the short-run, financial markets are hostage to fear and greed, and these emotions have been on full display. Although the Dow Jones Industrial Average has almost catapulted almost +4,000 points since the period right before the 2016 Presidential Election, last June also produced a roughly -1,000 point decline in the Dow. With fresh fears over Russian intervention-collusion, global monetary policy uncertainty, and political risk in North Korea, investors are grasping for clues as they read the indicator tea leaves to better position their portfolios. Some of these contrarian sentiment indicators can be helpful to your portfolio, if used properly. However, in large part, interpreting many of the sentiment indicators is as useful as reading tea leaves for your winning lotto number picks.
The Art of Tea Leave Reading
The premise behind contrarian investing is fairly simple – if you follow the herd, you will be led to the slaughterhouse. There is a tendency for investors to succumb to short-termism and act on their emotions rather than reason. The pendulum of investment emotions continually swings back and forth between fear and greed, and many of these indicators are designed with the goal of capturing emotion extremes.
The concept of mass hysteria is nothing new. Back in 1841, Charles Mackay published a book entitled, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, in which Mackay explores the psychology of crowds and mass mania through centuries of history, including the infamous Dutch Tulip Mania of the early 1600s (see Soros Super Bubble).
Out of sympathy for your eyeballs, I will not conduct an in-depth review of all the contrarian indicators, but here is brief sampling:
Sentiment Surveys: The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) releases weekly survey results from its membership. A different survey, conducted by Investors Intelligence, called the Advisors Sentiment Index, surveys authors of various stock advice newsletters. These data can provide some insights, but as you can probably gather, these surveys are also very subjective and often conflicting.
Put-Call Ratio: This is a widely used ratio that measures the trading volume of bearish put options to bullish call options and is used to gauge the overall mood of the market. When investors are fearful and believe prices will go lower, the ratio of puts to calls escalates. At historically high levels (see chart below), this ratio usually indicates a bottoming process in the market.
Volatility Index (VIX): The VIX indicator or “Fear Gauge” calculates inputs from various call and put options to create an approximation of the S&P 500 index implied volatility for the next 30 days. Put simply, when fear is high, the price of insurance catapults upwards and the VIX moves higher.
Strategist Sentiment: If you’re looking for a contrarian call to payoff, I wouldn’t hold your breath by waiting for bearish strategist sentiment to kick-in. Barry Ritholtz at the Big Picture got it right when he summarized Barron’s bullish strategist outlook by saying, “File this one under Duh!” Like most Wall Street and asset management firms, strategists have an inherent conflict of interest to provide a rosy outlook. More often than not, strategists’ opinions move like the wind in whatever direction stocks are currently moving.
Short Interest: The higher the amount of shares shorted, the larger the pent-up demand to buy shares becomes in the future. Extremely high levels of short interest tend to coincide with price bottoms because as prices begin to move higher, holders of short positions often feel “squeezed” to buy shares and push prices higher.
Fund Flow Data: The direction of investment dollars flowing in and out of mutual funds can provide some perspective on the psychology of the masses. This data can be found at the Investment Company Institute (ICI). Given the bloodletting of the 2008-2009 financial crisis, investors skepticism has made stocks about as popular as the approval ratings of Congress.
When it comes to sentiment indicators, I believe actions speak much louder than words. To the extent I actually do track some of these indicators, I pay much less attention to those indicators based on opinions, surveys, and technical analysis data (see Astrology or Lob Wedge). Most of my concentration is centered on those indicators explaining actual measurable investor behavior (i.e., Put-Call, VIX, Short Interest, Fund Flow, and other action-oriented trading metrics).
As we know from filtering through the avalanche of daily news data, the world can obviously can be a scary place (see Head Fakes Surprise). If you believe the world is on the cusp of ending and/or you do not believe investors are sufficiently bearish, I encourage you to build your own personal bunker and stuff it with gold or Bitcoin. If, however, you are looking to sharpen the returns on your portfolio and are thirsty for some emotional answers, pour yourself a cup of tea and pore over some sentiment indicators.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients own certain exchange traded funds, but at the time of publishing SCM had no direct position in any security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC “Contact” page.
Sports, Stocks, & the Magic Quadrants
Picking stocks is a tricky game and so is sports betting. With the NFL and NCAA football seasons only a few months away, we can analyze the professional sports-betting industry to better understand the complexities behind making money in the stock market. Anybody who has traveled to Las Vegas, and bet on a sporting event, understands that simply choosing a game winner is not enough for a casino to pay you winnings. You also need to forecast how many points you think a certain team will win or lose by (i.e., the so-called “spread”) – see also What Happens in Vegas, Stays on Wall Street. In the world of stocks, winning/losing is not measured by spreads but rather equities are measured by valuation (e.g., Price/Earnings or P/E ratios).
To make my point, here is a sports betting example from some years back:
Florida Gators vs. Charleston Southern Buccaneers: Without knowing a lot about the powerhouse Southern Buccaneers squad from South Carolina, 99% of respondents polled before the game are likely to unanimously select the winner as Florida – a consistently dominant, nationally ranked powerhouse program. The tougher question becomes trickier if football observers are asked, “Will the Florida Gators win by more than 63 points?”(see picture below). Needless to say, although the Buccs kept it close in the first half, and only trailed by 42-3 at halftime, the Gators still managed to squeak by with a 62-3 victory. Importantly, if you had bet on this game and placed money on the Florida Gators, the overwhelming pre-game favorite, the 59 point margin of victory would have resulted in a losing wager. In order for Gator fans to win money, they would have needed Florida to win by 64 points.
If investing and sports betting were easy, everybody would do it. The reason sports betting is so challenging is due to very intelligent statisticians and odds-makers that create very accurate point spreads. In the investing world, a broad swath of traders, market makers, speculators, investment bankers, and institutional/individual investors set equally efficient valuations over the long-term.
The goal in investing is very similar to sports betting. Successful professionals in both industries are able to consistently identify inefficiencies and then exploit them. Inefficiencies occur for a bettor when point spreads are too high or low, while investors identify inefficient prices in the marketplace by shorting expensive stocks and buying cheap stocks (i.e., undervalued or overvalued).
To illustrate my point, let’s take a look at Sidoxia’s “Magic Quadrant“:
A-B-Cs & 1-2-3s
What Sidoxia’s “Magic Quadrant” demonstrates is a framework for evaluating stocks. By devoting a short period of time reviewing the quadrants, it becomes apparent fairly quickly that Stock A is preferred over Stock B, which is preferred over Stock C, which is preferred over Stock D. In each comparison, the former is preferred over the latter because the earlier letters all have higher growth, and lower (cheaper) valuations. The same relative attractive relationships cannot be applied to stocks #1, #2, #3, and #4. Each successive numbered stock has higher growth, but in order to obtain that higher growth, investors must pay a higher valuation. In other words, Stock #1 has an extremely low valuation with low growth, while Stock #4 has high growth, but an investor must pay an extremely high valuation to own it.
While debating the efficiency of the stock market can escalate into a religious argument, I would argue the majority of stocks fall in the camp of #1, #2, #3, or #4. Or stated differently, you get what you pay for. For example, investors are paying a much higher valuation (high P/E) for Tesla Motors, Inc (TSLA) for its rapid electric car growth vs. paying a much lower valuation (low P/E) for Pitney Bowes Inc (PBI) for its more mature mail equipment business.
The real opportunities occur for those investors capable of identifying companies in the upper-left quadrant (i.e., Stock A) and lower-right quadrant (i.e., Stock D). If the analysis is done correctly, investors will load up on the undervalued Stock A and aggressively short the expensive Stock D. Sidoxia has its own proprietary valuation model (Sidoxia Holy Grail Ranking – SHGR or a.k.a. “SUGAR”) designed specifically to identify these profitable opportunities.
The professions of investing and sports betting are extremely challenging, however establishing a framework like Sidoxia’s “Magic Quadrants” can help guide you to find inefficient and profitable investment opportunities.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions in certain exchange traded funds (ETFs) and TSLA, but at the time of publishing, SCM had no direct position in PBI, or any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is the information to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.
The Art & Science of Successful Investing
As I described in my book, How I Managed $20,000,000,000.00 by Age 32, I believe successful investing is achieved by integrating aspects of both art and science. The science aspect of investing is fairly straightforward – most of the accounting and valuation math involved could be solved by a 7th grader. The more challenging aspect to successful investing is controlling the vacillating emotions of fear and greed when searching for attractive investments.
When people ask me about my investment philosophy, I do not like to be pigeon-holed into one style box because normally my portfolios hold investments that outsiders would deem both value and growth oriented. Since I am an absolute return investor, I am more concerned about how I can maximize upside returns while minimizing downside risk for my investors.
Because valuation is such an important factor in my process (price always matters), the most accurate description of my style would likely be “high octane GARP” (Growth At a Reasonable Price). While many GARP investors limit themselves to current or historical valuation metrics, my process has allowed me to take a more long-term, forward looking analysis of valuations, which has directed me to participate in some large winners, like Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), and Google/Alphabet (GOOGL), to name a few. To many observers, positions like these have traditionally been falsely considered “expensive” growth stocks.
Case in point is Google/Alphabet, which went public at $85 per share in 2004. At the time, the broad Wall Street consensus was the IPO (Initial Public Offering) price was way overheated. As it turned out, the stock has reached $1,000 per share and the Price-Earnings ratio (P/E) was a steal at less than 3x had you bought Google at the IPO price. ($85 2004 price/$33.98 2017 EPS estimate). Google is a perfect example of a dominant market leader that has been able to grow earnings dramatically for many years. In short order after going public, Google’s earnings ended up more than quintupling in less than three years and the stock price quintupled as well, proving that ill-advised focus on stale, traditional valuation metrics can lead you to wrong conclusions. Certainly, finding stocks that can increase in value by more than 11x fold is easier said than done, however, applying longer-term valuation metrics to dominant growth leading franchises will allow you to occasionally find monster winners like Google.
The greatest long-term winners don’t start off as the largest weightings, but due to the compounding of returns, position sizes can explode over time. As Peter Lynch states,
“You don’t need a lot of good hits every day. All you need is two to three good stocks a decade.”
Google/Alphabet proves what can appear expensive in the short-run is, in many cases, wildly cheap based on future earnings growth. Earnings tomorrow may be significantly larger than earnings today. Lynch emphasizes the importance of earnings over current prices,
“People concentrate too much on the ‘P’ (Price), but the ‘E’ (Earnings) really makes the difference.”
“Just because a stock is cheaper than before is no reason to buy it, and just because it’s more expensive is no reason to sell.”
The Google/Alphabet chart below shows the incredible price appreciation that can be realized from compounding earnings growth.
The Google example also underscores the importance of patience. Although the stock has been a massive home-run since its IPO, the stock barely budged from late 2006 through 2011. Accurately picking the perfect timing to make an investment is nearly impossible. I concur with Bill Miller when he stated,
“We expect the stocks we buy today to contribute to our performance several years hence. While it’s nice if they contribute to this year’s performance, this year’s performance should be driven by decisions we made in previous years. If we keep doing this, we hope that we will provide adequate returns in the future.”
Regarding timing, Miller adds,
“Nobody buys at lows and sells at highs except liars.”
The Sidoxia Philosophy
Over time, as I have fine-tuned my investment philosophy, I have not been bashful in borrowing winning ideas from growth gurus like Peter Lynch, Phil Fisher, William O’Neil, and Ron Baron, to name a few. By the same token, I am not shy about stealing ideas from value veterans like Warren Buffett, Seth Klarman, and Bill Miller as well.
While I don’t agree with Warren Buffett’s “forever” time horizon, I do believe in the power of compounding he espouses, which requires a longer-term investment horizon. The power of compounding is accelerated not only by committing to a long-term horizon, but also by the benefits accrued from lower trading costs and taxes. What’s more, taking a long view lowers your blood pressure and creates fewer ulcers. Legendary growth manager, T. Rowe Price, captures the essence of this idea here:
“The growth stock theory of investing requires patience, but is less stressful than trading, generally has less risk, and reduces brokerage commissions and income taxes.”
The Science of Investing
As discussed earlier, successful investing is an endeavor that involves the practices of both art and science – too much of either approach can be detrimental to your financial health. Quantitative screening can be an excellent tool for identifying new securities for research along with streamlining the fundamental analysis process. However, many investment funds rely too heavily on the quantitative science. The adage that “correlation does not equal causation” is an important credo to follow when reviewing various quantitative models (see Butter in Bangladesh).
The collapse of the infamous, multi-billion Long Term Capital Management hedge fund should also be a lesson to everyone (see When Genius Failed ). If world renowned Nobel Prize winners, Robert Merton and Myron Scholes, can single-handedly bring the global market to its knees as a result of using inconsistent and unreliable quantitative models, then I feel validated for my fundamentally-based investment approach.
While there are some artistic facets to valuation techniques, in large part, the valuation science is a fairly straightforward mathematical exercise. Unfortunately, the market consists of emotional and unpredictable individuals who continually change their opinions. Eventually the financial markets prod prices in the right direction, but over shorter time intervals, proper investment analysis requires some imperfect estimation.
Emotions regularly result in individuals overpaying for stocks, and this tendency is a risky strategy for any investment. In many cases investors chase darling stocks highlighted in news headlines, but regrettably these pricy investments often end up performing poorly. When it comes to hot stocks, I’m on the same page as famed value investor Bill Miller,
“If it’s in the papers, it’s in the price. One needs to anticipate, not react.”
Usually a news event that makes headlines is already factored into the stock price. The financial markets are generally forward looking mechanisms, not backward looking.
The Art of Investing
“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
-Yogi Berra
Investing is undoubtedly a challenging undertaking, but like almost any profession, the more experience one has, the better results generally achieved. Experience alone does not guarantee extraordinary performance, in large part due to emotional pressures. Investing would be much easier for everyone, if you didn’t have to worry about controlling those pesky emotions of fear and greed. The best investment decisions, and frankly any decision, are rarely made under these heightened emotions.
The most successful set of investors I have studied and modeled my investment process after are professionals who have married the quantitative science with the fundamental art of investing. At Sidoxia, we use a disciplined cash flow based valuation approach, along with thorough fundamental analysis to identify attractively valued, market leading franchises that can sustain above average growth. It sounds like a mouthful, but over time, it has worked well for the benefit of my clients and me.
The market leading franchises we invest in tend to have a competitive advantage, whether in the form of superior research and development, low-cost manufacturing, leading marketing, and/or other exceptional functions in the company that allow the entity to consistently garner more growth and more market share from its competitors. Quality franchises tend to also employ first-class management teams that have a proven track record, along with thoughtful, systematic processes in place to maintain their competitive edge. These competitive advantages are what allow companies to produce exceptional earnings growth for extended periods of time, thereby producing outstanding long-term performance for shareholders.
Finding sustainable growth in competitive niche markets is nearly impossible, and that is why I center my attention on large or emerging sectors of the economy that can support long runways of growth. When analyzing companies with durable, long runways of earnings growth, I concentrate on those developing, share-taking companies and dominant market leaders. In other words, disruptive companies that are entering new markets with vast potential and established companies that are gaining significant share in large markets. Well-known growth authority, Phil Fisher summarized the objective,
“The greatest investment rewards come to those who by good luck or good sense find the occasional company that over the years can grow in sales and profits far more than industry as a whole.”
I am privileged and honored to manage the hard earned investments of my clients. If this was a simple profession, everyone would do it, and I would not be employed as an investment manager. I have developed what I believe is a superior way of managing money, but I realize my investment process is not the only way to make money. If you were to assemble 10 different investment managers in the same room, and ask them, “What is the best way to invest money?,” you are likely to get 10 different answers. Having been in the investment industry and managed money for over 25 years, my experience has shown me that the vast majority of professional managers have underperformed the passive benchmarks. However, there are investment managers who have survived the test of time. For those veterans incorporating a disciplined, systematic approach that integrates the artistic and scientific aspects of investing, exceptional long-term returns can be achieved and have been achieved.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients own certain exchange traded funds, AMZN, GOOG/GOOGL, and AAPL, but at the time of publishing SCM had no direct position in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC “Contact” page.
Predictions – A Fool’s Errand
Making bold predictions is a fool’s errand. I think Yogi Berra summed it up best when he spoke about the challenges of making predictions:
“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
While making predictions might seem like a pleasurable endeavor, the reality is nobody has been able to consistently predict the future (remember the 2012 Mayan Doomsday?), besides perhaps palm readers and Nostradamus. The typical observed pattern consists of a group of well-known forecasters bunched in a herd coupled with a few extreme outliers who try to make a big splash and draw attention to themselves. Due to the law of large numbers, a few of these extreme outlier forecasters eventually strike gold and become Wall Street darlings…until their next forecasts fail miserably.
Like a broken clock, these radical forecasters can be right twice per day but are wrong most of the time. Here are a few examples:
Peter Schiff: The former stockbroker and President of Euro Pacific Capital has been peddling doom for decades (see Emperor Schiff Has No Clothes). You can get a sense of his impartial perspective via Schiff’s reading list (The Real Crash: America’s Coming Bankruptcy, Financial Armageddon, Conquer the Crash, Crash Proof – America’s Great Depression, The Biggest Con: How the Government is Fleecing You, Manias Panics and Crashes, Meltdown, Greenspan’s Bubbles, The Dollar Crisis, America’s Bubble Economy, and other doom-instilled titles.
Meredith Whitney: She made an incredible bearish call on Citigroup Inc. (C) during the fall of 2007, alongside her accurate call of Citi’s dividend suspension. Unfortunately, her subsequent bearish calls on the municipal market and the stock market were completely wrong (see also Meredith Whitney’s Cloudy Crystal Ball).
John Mauldin: This former print shop professional turned perma-bear investment strategist has built a living incorrectly calling for a stock market crash. Like perma-bears before him, he will eventually be right when the next recession hits, but unfortunately, the massive appreciation will have been missed. Any eventual temporary setback will likely pale in comparison to the lost gains from being out of the market. I profiled the false forecaster in my article, The Man Who Cries Bear.
Nouriel Roubini: This renowned New York University economist and professor is better known as “Dr. Doom” and as one of the people who predicted the housing bubble and 2008-2009 financial crisis. Like most of the perma-bears who preceded him, Dr. Doom remained too doom-ful as the stock market more than tripled from the 2009 lows (see also Pinning Down Roubini).
Alan Greenspan: The graveyard of erroneous forecasters is so large that a proper summary would require multiple books. However, a few more of my favorites include Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan’s infamous “Irrational Exuberance” speech in 1996 when he warned of a technology bubble. Although directionally correct, the NASDAQ index proceeded to more than triple in value (from about 1,300 to over 5,000) over the next three years. – today the NASDAQ is hovering around 6,100.
Robert Merton & Myron Scholes: As I chronicled in Investing Caffeine (see When Genius Failed), another doozy is the story of the Long Term Capital Management hedge fund, which was run in tandem with Nobel Prize winning economists, Robert Merton and Myron Scholes. What started as $1.3 billion fund in early 1994 managed to peak at around $140 billion before eventually crumbling to a capital level of less than $1 billion. Regrettably, becoming a Nobel Prize winner doesn’t make you a great predictor.
Words From the Wise
Rather than paying attention to crazy predictions by academics, economists, and strategists who in many cases have never invested a penny of outside investor money, ordinary investors would be better served by listening to steely investment veterans or proven prediction practitioners like Billy Beane (minority owner of the Oakland Athletics and subject of Michael Lewis’s book, Moneyball), who stated the following:
“The crime is not being unable to predict something. The crime is thinking that you are able to predict something.”
Other great quotes regarding the art of predictions, include these ones:
“I can’t recall ever once having seen the name of a market timer on Forbes‘ annual list of the richest people in the world. If it were truly possible to predict corrections, you’d think somebody would have made billions by doing it.”
-Peter Lynch
“Many more investors claim the ability to foresee the market’s direction than actually possess the ability. (I myself have not met a single one.) Those of us who know that we cannot accurately forecast security prices are well advised to consider value investing, a safe and successful strategy in all investment environments.”
–Seth Klarman
“No matter how much research you do, you can neither predict nor control the future.”
–John Templeton
“Stop trying to predict the direction of the stock market, the economy or the elections.”
–Warren Buffett
“In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield.”
–Warren Buffett
In the global financial markets, Wall Street is littered with strategists and economists who have flamed out after brief bouts of fame. Celebrated author Mark Twain captured the essence of speculation when he properly identified, “There are two times in a man’s life when he should not speculate: when he can’t afford it and when he can.” Instead of attempting to predict the future, investors will avoid a fool’s errand by simply seizing opportunities as they present themselves in an ever-changing world.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients own certain exchange traded funds, but at the time of publishing SCM had no direct position in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC “Contact” page.
Investing Caffeine 
