Archive for April, 2026
Bombs Away – Iran & Oil Spark an Explosive Month
The stock market felt the blast of geopolitical tension last month as all three major domestic indexes all retreated. In March, the S&P 500 fell -5.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped -5.4%, and the NASDAQ slid -4.8%.
While a -5% monthly drop grabs headlines, perspective and context are key. Since the start of 2023, the S&P 500 remains up approximately +70% (excluding dividends). Even after the recent -7% pullback from January’s record highs, the index is still trading +35% above its April 2025 lows.
The Strait Has Created An Oil Gate
The primary catalyst for the market volatility is the escalating conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran. Beyond the tragic human cost, the economic “bomb” has been the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles the flow of roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply.
Basic economics dictates that when supply is choked, prices skyrocket. We saw exactly that: WTI Crude spiked roughly +54% over the last month, surging from $67 to a peak near $103 per barrel (see chart below).
The “energy tax” from higher oil prices has introduced four major stressors for investors:
- Drained Consumer Wallets: Every extra dollar spent at the pump is a dollar not spent on groceries, healthcare, or retail. Since consumers disproportionately control the U.S. economy, cuts in discretionary spending on things like vacations, cars, and houses has a material negative impact on the nation’s financial output.
- Widespread Industrial Shock: High oil prices inflate costs for almost every physical industry, including airline fuel, trucking logistics, petroleum-based fertilizers, and construction inputs like asphalt and steel.
- Labor Market Cooling: The February jobs report was a wake-up call, showing a loss of -92,000 jobs (well below the expected gain of +130,000). While AI-driven displacement is a factor, the sudden spike in energy overhead has clearly contributed to employers pausing their hiring.
- Recessionary Red Flags: Prediction markets like Polymarket now place the probability of a U.S. recession by the end of 2026 at 34.5%, up significantly from just a few months ago (see chart below).
Source: MacroMicro & Polymarket
Geopolitical Noise vs. Market Reality
While current volatility feels unique, seasoned investors have seen this movie before. It is easy to forget that the S&P 500 slumped -21% last year as markets grappled with the administration’s aggressive tariff strategies, only to see prices roar back once the initial shock subsided. Even with the recent -7% pullback from January’s record highs, the S&P 500 remains +35% higher than the lows of April 2025.
Both the tariff friction and the Iranian conflict could be viewed as “self-inflicted” geopolitical maneuvers. While the long-term economic gains of these high-stakes decisions are still being debated, one short-term reality is certain: the November midterm elections are fast approaching.
History suggests that as elections loom, the administration will prioritize stability and “voter-friendly” economic conditions. We are already seeing a shift in rhetoric that suggests an “off-ramp” for the Iran conflict may be closer than the headlines imply. President Trump is addressing the nation today with an update on the current situation. When political capital is on the line, pragmatic pivots often follow unpopular volatility. What does this mean for investors? This means we are likely closer to the end of this Iranian conflict than we are to the beginning.
The Resilience of History
The last decade has been a relentless cycle of “unprecedented” global unrest. However, as the timeline below illustrates, geopolitical shocks have historically acted as speed bumps, not roadblocks, for long-term equity growth:
- 2026: Maduro Kidnapping (Venezuela)
- 2025: Operation Midnight Hammer (Iran)
- 2024: Collapse of the Assad Regime (Syria) & Moscow Terrorist Attack
- 2024: Houthi Red Sea Attacks
- 2023: Israel-Hamas Conflict
- 2022: Russia-Ukraine Invasion
- 2021: U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan
- 2017: North Korean “Fire and Fury”
- 2016: Brexit
- 2015: Paris Terrorist Attacks
The Bottom Line: Since the beginning of 2015, the S&P 500 has more than tripled (+217%). The data is clear: even in the face of horrific global events, the market’s primary engine – corporate innovation and earnings – tends to prevail. In the world of investing, a timeless (if cynical) truth remains: “When missiles fly, it’s time to buy!”
The Fed’s “Wet Towel”
This oil-driven inflation has also doused hopes for aggressive monetary easing. At the start of the year, the appointment of Kevin Warsh as the incoming Fed Chairman (set to succeed Jerome Powell in May) led markets to price in multiple rate cuts. However, the March “dot plot” (see chart below) revealed a much more hawkish reality. The Federal Reserve now projects only one 25-basis-point cut for the remainder of 2026, bringing the target range to 3.25%–3.50%. Seven officials now see zero cuts this year, reflecting a “higher for longer” stance as they battle renewed energy-led inflation.
Source: Charles Schwab
The Sidoxia Strategy: Don’t Fear the Turbulence
History reminds us that while geopolitical shocks are terrifying in the moment, their impact on diversified portfolios is almost always temporary. Since 2015, the S&P 500 has more than tripled (+217%) despite a decade defined by the Russia-Ukraine war, the collapse of the Assad regime, and various “Operation Midnight Hammer” style conflicts.
As we look toward the November midterm elections, we expect political rhetoric to shift toward stabilization. President Trump has already signaled that an “offramp” for the Iranian conflict may be approaching, as high energy prices are rarely a winning campaign strategy. At Sidoxia, we aren’t distracted by the noise of the “bombs.” We continue to focus on fundamental valuations and opportunistically use this volatility to improve our clients’ positioning. In the world of investing, the best time to stay disciplined is exactly when everyone else is looking for the exit.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
This article is an excerpt from a previously released Sidoxia Capital Management complimentary newsletter (Apr. 1, 2026). Subscribe Here to view all monthly articles.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions in certain exchange traded funds (ETFs), but at the time of publishing had no direct position in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.
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