Archive for October, 2011

Fear & Greed Occupy Wall Street in October

Excerpt from Free November Sidoxia Monthly Newsletter (Subscribe on right-side of page)

Fear and frustration dominated investor psyches during August and September as backlash from political gridlock in the U.S. and worries of European contagion dominated action in volatile investment portfolios. Elevated 9.1% unemployment and a sluggish recovery in the U.S. also led populist Occupy Wall Street protesters to flood our nation’s streets, blaming the bankers and the wealthy as the cause for personal misfortunes and the widening gap between rich and poor. However, in the face of the palpable pessimism, economic Halloween treats and greedy corporate profits scared away bearish naysayers like invisible ghosts during the month of October.

While many investors stayed home for Halloween in the supposed comfort of their inflation-losing savings accounts and bonds, those investors choosing to brave the chilling elements in the frightening equity markets were handsomely rewarded. Stockholders tasted the sweet pleasure of a +11% October return in the S&P 500 index, the largest monthly advance in 20 years.

Of course, as I always advise, investors should not load themselves to the gills in stocks just to chase performance. Rather, investors should construct a diversified portfolio designed to meet one’s objectives, constraints, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs. Within that context, a portfolio should also periodically rebalance by selling pricey investments (i.e., Treasuries) and redeploy those proceeds into unloved investments (i.e., equities).

Glass Half Full


There is never a shortage of reasons to be fearful and a one-month rally in equities is not reason enough to blindly pile on risk, but there are plenty of  reasons to counter the endless pessimism pornography peddled by media outlets on a continuous basis. Here are some of the “half-full” reasons:

  • Euro Plan in Place: After months of conflicting headlines, European leaders reached an agreement to increase the European Union’s bailout fund to one trillion euros ($1.4 trillion) and negotiated a -50% debt reduction deal with Greek bondholders. In addition, European officials agreed on a plan to increase bank reserves by 106 billion euros to support potential bank losses due to European debt defaults. This plan is not a silver bullet, but it is a start.
  • Bulging Corporate Profits: With the majority of S&P 500 companies now having reported their actual third quarter results, profit growth is estimated to exceed +16% for the three month period ending in September. Expectations for fourth quarter earnings are currently forecasted to top a respectable +11% growth rate (Data from Thomson Reuters).
  • Tortoise-Like Growth Continues: Even though it’s Halloween, the double-dip recession boogeyman is still hiding. U.S. economic growth actually accelerated its growth to +2.5% in the third quarter on a year-over-year basis, up from +1.3% last quarter. The growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was primarily driven by consumer and business spending.
  • Jobs Still on the Rise: The unemployment rate remains stubbornly high, but offsetting the ongoing decline in government jobs has been a 19 consecutive month spurt in private job creation activity, resulting in +2.6 million jobs being added to the economy over the period. This doesn’t make up for the 8 million+ jobs lost during the 2008-2009 recession, but the economy is moving in the right direction.
  • Consumers Opening Wallet: Consumers can be like cockroaches in that they are difficult to kill off when it comes to spending. Consumers whipped out their wallets in September as retail sales advanced at a brisk +7.9% pace (+7.8% excluding auto sales).
  • Dividends on the Rise: While nervous Nellies park money in money losing cash and Treasuries (on an inflation-adjusted basis), corporations flush with cash are increasing dividends at a rapid clip. According to Standard & Poor’s rating agency, dividend increases rose over +17% during the third quarter of 2011. As of October 25th, the indicated dividend for the S&P stood at a decent +2.20% rate.

I am fully aware that equity investors are not out of the woods yet, as the European debt crisis has not been resolved, and the structural deficit/debt issues we face in the U.S. still have a long way to go before becoming disentangled. As a matter of fact, fear is building as we approach the looming deficit reduction Super Committee resolution (or lack thereof) later this month – I can hardly wait. If a $1.5 trillion bipartisan debt reduction agreement can’t be reached, some bored Occupy Wall Street protesters can shift priorities and take a tour bus to Washington D.C. to demonstrate. Regardless of the potential grand European or Washington debt plans that may or may not transpire, observers can rest assured fear and greed are two emotions that will remain alive and well when it comes to Wall Street and “Main Street” portfolios.

Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®

Plan. Invest. Prosper.

www.Sidoxia.com

DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients own certain exchange traded funds, but at the time of publishing SCM had no direct position in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC “Contact” page.

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October 31, 2011 at 11:44 pm Leave a comment

Stay Tuned…

As I sift through the flood of corporate profit reports and finish up my quarterly client responsibilities, I’ve now carved out some to time to focus on writing. For anyone waiting in line for my next piece, please come back late Monday or early Tuesday for my monthly review (or sign up on right side of page). Stay tuned…

Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®

Plan. Invest. Prosper.

www.Sidoxia.com

DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients own certain exchange traded funds, but at the time of publishing SCM had no direct position in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC “Contact” page.

October 30, 2011 at 7:31 pm 1 comment

Boo! Will History Offer a Bearish Trick or BullishTreat?

October is not only a scary month for trick-or-treaters during Halloween, but October is also a scary month for investors.

Boo! Scared yet? Well if not, need I remind you of the market crashes of 1929 and 1987 also occurred during this ghoulish month? With a wall of worry and concerns galore overwhelming myopic traders, it’s no surprise nervous memories become shortened in anxious times like these.

The financial crisis of 2008-2009 is seared into the minds of investors and every Greek debt negotiation creates fresh new Armageddon fears. But perhaps history will repeat itself in a shorter-term more positive way? Just last year, I wrote about the excessive pessimism (It’s All Greek to Me) in July 2010, when “de-risking” was the buzz word of the day and hedge funds were bailing in droves – right before the +30%+ QE2 (quantitative easing) melt-up. Despite a massive expansion in earnings growth over the last few years,  the S&P 500 just touched 1074 a few weeks ago – putting the index at similar trading levels as in Fall 2009 (see chart below).

Source: Yahoo! Finance

Will Europe crater the U.S. into an abyss, or will Bernanke need to pull a QE3 rabbit out of his hat? I’m not sure what’s going to happen, but I do know it’s better to follow the wisdom of Warren Buffett who says to “buy fear and sell greed.” If a 2% 10-Year Treasury, elevated VIX, and trillions in swollen cash reserves do not represent fear, then I may just need to pack my backs and head out to the Greek island of Santorini – that way I can at least enjoy my fear on a sunny beach.

Regardless of the Q4 outcome, I thought my friend Mark Twain could provide some insight about history’s role in financial markets. Here is an Investing Caffeine flashback from the fall of 2009 (History Never Repeats Itself, but it Often Rhymes) which also questioned the extremely negative sentiment at the time (S&P 500: 1069):

As Mark Twain said, “History never repeats itself, but it often rhymes.” There are many bear markets with which to compare the current financial crisis we are working through. By studying the past we can understand the repeated mistakes of others (caused by fear and greed), and avoid making similar emotional errors.

Do you want an example? Here you go:

Today there are thoughtful, experienced, respected economists, bankers, investors and businessmen who can give you well-reasoned, logical, documented arguments why this bear market is different; why this time the economic problems are different; why this time things are going to get worse — and hence, why this is not a good time to invest in common stocks, even though they may appear low.”
- Jim Fullerton, former chairman of the Capital Group of the American Funds (written  November 7, 1974)

 

Although the quote above seems appropriate for 2009, it actually is reflective of the bearish mood felt in most bear markets. We have been through wars, assassinations, banking crises, currency crises, terrorist attacks, mad-cow disease, swine flu, and yes, even recessions. And through it all, most have managed to survive in decent shape. Let’s take a deeper look.

1973-1974 Case Study:

For those of you familiar with this period, recall the prevailing circumstances:

  • Exiting Vietnam War
  • Undergoing a recession
  • 9% unemployment
  • Arab Oil Embargo
  • Watergate: Presidential resignation
  • Collapse of the Nifty Fifty stocks
  • Rising inflation

Not too rosy a scenario, yet here’s what happened:

S&P 500 Price (12/1974): 69

S&P 500 Price (8/2009): 1,021

That is a whopping +1,380% increase, excluding dividends.

What Investors Should Do:

  1. Avoid Knee-Jerk Reactions to Media Reports: Whether it’s radio, television, newspapers, or now blogs, the headlines should not emotionally control your investment decisions. Historically, media venues are lousy at identifying changes in price direction. Reporters are excellent at telling you what is happening or what just happened – not what is going to happen.
  2. Save and Invest: Regardless of the market direction, entitlements like Medicare and social security are under stress, and life expectancies are increasing (despite the sad state of our healthcare system), therefore investing is even more important today than ever.
  3. Create a Systematic, Disciplined Investment Plan: I recommend a plan that takes advantage of passive, low-cost, tax-efficient investment strategies (e.g. exchange-traded and index funds) across a diversified portfolio. Rather than capitulating in response to market volatility, have a systematic process that can rebalance periodically to take advantage of these circumstances.

For DIY-ers (Do-It-Yourselfers), I suggest opening a low-cost discount brokerage account and research firms like Vanguard Group, iShares, or Select Sector SPDRs. If you choose to outsource to a professional advisor, I recommend interviewing several fee-only* advisers – focusing on experience, investment philosophy, and potential compensation conflicts of interest.

If you believe, like some economists, CEOs, and investors, we have suffered through the worst of the current “Great Recession” and you are sitting on the sidelines, then it might make sense to heed the following advice: “Some people say they want to wait for a clearer view of the future. But when the future is again clear, the present bargains will have vanished.” Dean Witter made those comments 77 years ago – a few weeks before the end of worst bear market in history. The market has bounced quite a bit since March of this year, but if history is on our side, there might be more room to go.

Portions of this article were originally published on September 16, 2009.

Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®

Plan. Invest. Prosper.

www.Sidoxia.com

DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients own certain exchange traded funds, but at the time of publishing SCM had no direct position in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC “Contact” page.

*For disclosure purposes: Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP is President & Founder of Sidoxia Capital Management, LLC, a fee-only investment adviser based in Newport Beach, California.

October 23, 2011 at 9:55 pm Leave a comment

Stirring the Sentiment Tea Leaves Redux

The equity markets have been on a volatility rollercoaster while participants continue to search for the Holy Grail of indicators – in hopes of determining whether the next large move  in the markets is upwards or downwards. Although markets may be efficient in the long-run (see Crisis Black Eye), in the short-run, financial markets are hostage to fear and greed, and these emotions have been on full display. In the last two weeks alone, we have witnessed the Dow Jones Industrial Average catapult skyward over +1,200 points, while just a few weeks earlier the Dow cratered about -800 points in a five day period. With fresh fears of a European banking collapse, a global recession, and an uncertain election in the U.S. approaching, investors are grasping for clues as they read the indicator tea leaves to better position their portfolios. Some of these contrarian sentiment indicators can be helpful to your portfolio, if used properly, however interpreting many of the sentiment indicators is as useful as reading tea leaves is for picking winning lotto numbers.

The Art of Tea Leave Reading

The premise behind contrarian investing is fairly simple – if you follow the herd, you will be led to the slaughterhouse. There is a tendency for investors to succumb to short-termism and act on their emotions rather than reason. The pendulum of investment emotions continually swings back and forth between fear and greed, and many of these indicators are designed with the goal of capturing emotion extremes.

The concept of mass hysteria is nothing new. Back in 1841, Charles Mackay published a book entitled, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, in which Mackay explores the psychology of crowds and mass mania through centuries of history, including the infamous Dutch Tulip Mania of the early 1600s (see Soros Super Bubble).

Out of sympathy for your eyeballs, I will not conduct an in-depth review of all the contrarian indicators, but here is brief sampling:

Sentiment Surveys: The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) releases weekly survey results from its membership. With the recent stock market bounce, bullish sentiment has escalated up near historic averages (39.8% bullish), yet the bears still remain skeptical – more than 6% higher than normal (36.4% bearish). A different survey, conducted by Investors Intelligence, called the Advisors Sentiment Index, surveys authors of various stock advice newsletters. The index showed bearish sentiment reaching 46.3%, the highest negative reading since the 2008-2009 bear market low. These data can provide some insights, but as you can probably gather, these surveys are also very subjective and often conflicting.

Put-Call Ratio: This is a widely used ratio that measures the trading volume of bearish put options to bullish call options and is used to gauge the overall mood of the market. When investors are fearful and believe prices will go lower, the ratio of puts to calls escalates. At historically high levels (see chart below), this ratio usually indicates a bottoming process in the market.

Volatility Index (VIX): The VIX indicator or “Fear Gauge” calculates inputs from various call and put options to create an approximation of the S&P 500 index implied volatility for the next 30 days. Put simply, when fear is high, the price of insurance catapults upwards and the VIX moves higher. Over the last 25 years a VIX reading of 44 or higher has only been reached nine times  (source: Don Hays), so as you can see from the chart below, the recent market rally has coincided with the short-term peak in the VIX.

Source: Market-Harmonics.com

Strategist Sentiment: If you’re looking for a contrarian call to payoff, I wouldn’t hold your breath by waiting for bearish strategist sentiment to kick-in. Barry Ritholtz at the Big Picture got it right when he summarized Barron’s bullish strategist outlook by saying, “File this one under Duh!” Like most Wall Street and asset management firms, strategists have an inherent conflict of interest to provide a rosy outlook. For what it’s worth, the market is up slightly since the Barron’s strategist outlook was published last month.

Short Interest: The higher the amount of shares shorted, the larger the pent-up demand to buy shares becomes in the future. Extremely high levels of short interest tend to coincide with price bottoms because as prices begin to move higher, holders of short positions often feel “squeezed” to buy shares and push prices higher. According to SmartMoney.com, hedge fund managers own the lowest percentage of stocks (45%) since March 2009 market price bottom. Research from Data Explorer also suggests that sentiment is severely negative – the highest short interest level  experienced since mid-2009.

Fund Flow Data: The direction of investment dollars flowing in and out of mutual funds can provide some perspective on the psychology of the masses. Recent data coming from the Investment Company Institute (ICI) shows that -$63.6 billion has flowed out of all equity funds in 2011, while +$81.7 billion has flowed into bond funds. Suffice it to say, investor nervousness has made stocks as about as popular as the approval ratings of Congress.

When it comes to sentiment indicators, I believe actions speak much louder than words. To the extent I actually do track some of these indicators, I pay much less attention to those indicators based on opinions, surveys, and technical analysis data (see Astrology or Lob Wedge). Most of my concentration is centered on those indicators explaining actual measurable investor behavior (i.e., Put-Call, VIX, Short Interest, Fund Flow, and other action-oriented trading metrics).

As we know from filtering through the avalanche of daily news data, the world can obviously become a much worse place (i.e., Greece, eurozone collapse, double-dip, inflation, banking collapse, muni defaults, widening CDS spreads, etc,). If you believe the world is on the cusp of ending and/or you do not believe investors are sufficiently bearish, I encourage you to build your bunker stuffed with gold, and/or join the nearest local Occupy Wall Street chapter. If, however, you are looking to sharpen the returns on your portfolio and are thirsty for some emotional answers, pour yourself a cup of tea and pore over some sentiment indicators.

Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®

Plan. Invest. Prosper.

www.Sidoxia.com

DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients own certain exchange traded funds, but at the time of publishing SCM had no direct position in JPM, or any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC “Contact” page.

October 16, 2011 at 9:22 am 2 comments

Solving Europe and Your Deadbeat Cousin

The fall holidays are quickly approaching, and almost every family has at least one black-sheep member among the bunch. You know, the unemployed second cousin who shows up for Thanksgiving dinner intoxicated – who then proceeds to pull you aside after a full meal to ask you for some money because of an unlucky trip to Las Vegas. For simplicity purposes, let’s name our deadbeat cousin Joe.

Right now the European union (EU) is dealing with a similar situation, but rather than being forced to deal with money-begging cousin named Joe, the EU is being forced to confront the irresponsible debt-binging practices of its own relatives – the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain). The European troika (International Monetary Fund/IMF; European Union/EU; and European Central Bank/ECB), spearheaded by German and French persuasion, is contemplating everything from prescribing direct bank recapitalization, bailouts via the leveraging of the EFSF (European Financial Stability Facility), ECB bond purchases, debt guarantees, unlimited central bank loans, and more.

New stress tests are being reevaluated as we speak. Previous tests failed in gaining the necessary credibility because inadequate haircuts were applied to the values of PIIGS debt held by European banks. European Leaders are beginning to gain some religion as to the urgency and intensity of the financial crisis. Just today, Germany’s chancellor (Angela Merkel) and France’s President (Nicolas Sarkozy) announced that they will introduce a comprehensive package of measures to stabilize the eurozone by the end of this month, right before the summit of the G20 leading global economies in Cannes, France.

Pick Your Poison

Whatever the path used to mop up debt excesses, the options for solving the financial mess can be lumped together in the following categories:

1. Austerity: Plain, unadulterated spending cuts is one prescription being administerd in hopes of curing bloated European sovereign debt issues. Negatives: Slowing economic growth, slowing tax receipts, potentially widening deficits (reference Greece), and political reelection self interests call into question the feasibility of the austerity option. Positives: Austerity is a morally correct fiscal response, which has the potential of placing a country’s financial situation back on a sustainable path.

2. Bailouts: The troika is also talking about infusing the troubled banks with new capital. Negatives: This action could result in more debt placed on country balance sheets, a potentially lower credit rating, higher costs of borrowing, higher tax burden for blameless taxpayers, and often an impossible political path of success. Positives: Financial markets may respond constructively in the short-run, but providing an alcoholic more alcohol doesn’t solve long-term fiscal responsibility, and also introduces the problem of moral hazard.

3. Haircuts: Voluntary or involuntary haircuts to principal debt obligations may occur in conjunction with previously described bailout efforts, depending on the severity of debt levels. Negatives: There are many different sets of constituents and investors, which can make voluntary haircut/debt restructuring terms difficult to agree upon. If the haircuts are too severe, banking reserves across the EU will become decimated, which will only lead to more austerity, bailouts, and potential credit downgrades. Such actions could hamper or eliminated future access to capital, and the cost of access to future capital could be cost prohibitive for the borrowing countries that defaulted/restructured. Positives: Haircuts eliminate or lessen the need for other more painful austerity or restructuring measures, and force borrowers to become more fiscally responsible, not to mention, investors are forced to conduct more thorough due diligence.

4. Printing Press: Buying back debt with freshly printed euros hot off the press is another strategy. Negatives: Inflation is an invisible tax on everyone, including those constituents who are behaving in a fiscally responsible manner. Positives: Not only is this strategy more politically palatable because the inflation tax is spread across the whole union, but this path to debt reduction also does not require as painful and unpopular cuts in spending as experienced in other options.

The Costs

What is the cost for this massive European debt-binging rehabilitation? Estimates vary widely, but a JP Morgan analyst sized it up this way as explained in the The Financial Times:

“In a worst-case, severe recession scenario, €230bn in new capital is needed to meet Basel III requirements, assuming a 60 per cent debt writedown on Greece, 40 per cent on Ireland and Portugal and 20 per cent on Italy and Spain, and that banks withhold dividends.”

 

More bearish estimates with larger bond loss haircuts, stricter regulatory guidelines, and harsher austerity measures have generated recapitalization numbers north of €1 trillion euros. Regardless of the estimates, European governments, regulators, and central banks are likely to select a combination of the poisons listed above. There is no silver bullet solution, and any of the chosen paths come with their own unique set of consequences.

As time passes and the European crisis matures, I am confident that you will be hearing more about ECB involvement and the firing-up of the printing presses. Perhaps the ECB will fund and work jointly with the EFSF to soak up debt and/or capitalize weak banks. Alternatively, and more simply, the ECB is likely to follow the path of the U.S. and implement significant amounts of quantitative easing (i.e., provide liquidity to the financial system via sovereign debt purchases and guarantees).

Dealing with irresponsible and intoxicated deadbeat second cousins (or European countries) fishing for money is never a pleasurable experience. There are many ways to address the problem, but ignoring the issue will only make the situation worse. Fortunately, our European friends on the other side of the pond appear to be taking notice. As in the U.S., if government officials delay or ignore the immediate problems, the financial market cops (a.k.a., “bond vigilantes”) will force them into action. In the recent past, European officials have used a strategy of sober talking “tough love,” but signs that the ECB printing presses are now beginning to warm up are evident. Once the euros come flying off the presses to detoxify the debt binging banks, perhaps the ECB can print a few extra euros for my cousin Joe.

Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®

Plan. Invest. Prosper.

www.Sidoxia.com

DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients own certain exchange traded funds, but at the time of publishing SCM had no direct position in JPM, or any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC “Contact” page.

October 9, 2011 at 4:36 pm 2 comments

Playing Whack-A-Mole with the Pros

Source: Flickr

Deciphering the ups and the downs of the financial markets is a lot like playing a game of Whack-A-Mole. First the market is up 300 points, then down 300 points. Next Greece and Europe are going down the drain, and then Germany and the ECB (European Central Bank) are here to save the day. The daily data points are a rapid moving target, and if history continues to serve as a guide (see History Often Rhymes with the Future), the bobbing consensus views of pundits will continue to get hammered by investors’ mallets.

Let’s take a look at recent history to see who has been the “whack-er” and whom has been the “whack-ee.” Whether it was the gloom and doom consensus view in the early 1980s (reference BusinessWeek’s 1979 front page “The Death of Equities) or the euphoric championing of tech stocks in the 1990s (see Money magazine’s March 2000 cover, “The Hottest Market Ever), the consensus view was wrong then, and is likely wrong again today.

Here are some of the fresher consensus views that have popped up and then gotten beaten down:

End of QE2The Consensus: If you rewind the clock back to June 2011 when the Federal Reserve’s $600 billion QE2 (Quantitative Easing Part II) monetary stimulus program was coming to an end, a majority of pundits expected bond prices to tank in the absence of the Fed’s Ben Bernanke’s checkbook support. Before the end of QE2, Reuters financial service surveyed 64 professionals, and a substantial majority predicted bond prices would tank and interest rates would catapult upwards.   Actual Result: The pundits were wrong and rates did not go up, they in fact went down.  As a result, bond prices screamed higher – bond values increased significantly as 10-year Treasury yields fell from 3.16% to a low of 1.72% last week.

Debt Ceiling DebateThe Consensus: Just one month later, Democrats and Republicans were playing a game of political “chicken” in the process of raising the debt ceiling to over $16 trillion. Bill Gross, bond guru and CEO of fixed income giant PIMCO, was one of the many pros who earlier this year sold Treasuries in droves because fears of bond vigilantes shredding prices of U.S. Treasury bonds .

Here was the prevalent thought process at the time:  Profligate spending by irresponsible bureaucrats in Washington if not curtailed dramatically would cascade into a disaster, which would lead to higher default risk, cancerous inflation, and exploding interest rates ala Greece. Actual Result: Once again, the pundits were proved wrong in the deciphering of their cloudy crystal balls. Interest rates did not rise, they actually fell.  As a result, bond prices screamed higher and 10-year Treasury yields dived from 2.74% to the recent low of 1.72%.

S&P Credit DowngradeThe Consensus: The S&P credit rating agency warned Washington that a failure to come to meaningful consensus on deficit and debt reduction would result in bitter consequences. Despite a $2 trillion error made by S&P, the agency kept its word and downgraded the U.S.’s long-term debt rating to AA+ from AAA. Research from JP Morgan (JPM) cautioned investors of the imminent punishment to be placed on $4 trillion in Treasury collateral, which could lead to a seizing in credit markets.  Actual Result: Rather than becoming the ugly stepchild, U.S. Treasuries became a global safe-haven for investors around the world to pile into. Not only did bond prices steadily climb (and yields decline), but the value of our currency as measured by the Dollar Index (DXY) has risen significantly since then.

Dollar Index (DXY) Source: Bloomberg

What is next? Nobody knows for certain. In the meantime, grab some cotton candy, popcorn, and a rubber mallet. There is never a shortage of confident mole-like experts popping up on TV, newspapers, blogs, and radio. So when the deafening noise about the inevitable collapse of Europe and the global economy comes roaring in, make sure you are the one holding the mallet and not the mole getting whacked on the head.

Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®

Plan. Invest. Prosper.

www.Sidoxia.com

DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients own certain exchange traded funds, but at the time of publishing SCM had no direct position in JPM, MHP, or any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC “Contact” page.

October 1, 2011 at 5:53 am Leave a comment


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